Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China

Boldog, Péter; Tekeli, Tamás; Vizi, Zsolt; Dénes, Attila; Bartha, F.; Röst, Gergely

doi:10.3390/jcm9020571

Cited by 255 publications

(167 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…From either estimate, we conclude that COVID-19 has substantial potential to spread via human-to-human transmission. However, R 0 > 1 does not guarantee that a single exported (and untraced) case would immediately lead to a major epidemic in the destination country as government responses such as border control, isolation of suspected cases, and intensive surveillance should serve to reduce opportunities for transmission to occur [17][18][19].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases

Jung

Akhmetzhanov

Hayashi

et al. 2020

JCM

345

152

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The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number-the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naïve population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cumulative incidence and the confirmed case fatality risk of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China, 2020. (A,B) Observed and estimated cumulative number of cases in China by the date of report.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases

Jung

Akhmetzhanov

Hayashi

et al. 2020

JCM

345

152

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the National Health Commission of China [6]. In line with previous studies [7][8][9][10][11], a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model was exploited but care was also taken to separate the removed state into two classes: recovered cases (R) and deaths (D). Indeed, in the traditional SEIR model, the removed state ideally includes both recovered and dead patients.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Unreported Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Infections from Reported Deaths: A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered–Dead Model

Maugeri

Barchitta

Battiato

et al. 2020

JCM

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In the midst of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic, examining reported case data could lead to biased speculations and conclusions. Indeed, estimation of unreported infections is crucial for a better understanding of the current emergency in China and in other countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the unreported number of infections in China prior to the 23 January 2020 restrictions. To do this, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model that estimated unreported infections from the reported number of deaths. Our approach relied on the fact that observed deaths were less likely to be affected by ascertainment biases than reported infections. Interestingly, we estimated that the basic reproductive number (R 0 ) was 2.43 (95%CI = 2.42-2.44) at the beginning of the epidemic and that 92.9% (95%CI = 92.5%-93.1%) of total cases were not reported. Similarly, the proportion of unreported new infections by day ranged from 52.1% to 100%, with a total of 91.8% (95%CI = 91.6%-92.1%) of infections going unreported. Agreement between our estimates and those from previous studies proves that our approach is reliable for estimating the prevalence and incidence of undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infections. Once it has been tested on Chinese data, our model could be applied to other countries with different surveillance and testing policies.

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“…In joined together United States of America, more than 5,87,155 cases tainted by COVID-19 have been affirmed, and number is still rising. As the COVID-19 flare-up quickly advances, inquire about work to create an immunization and to test antivirals and other therapeutics proceeds in parallel to other measures (Abbad et al, 2019;Ahmed et al, 2020;Boldog et al, 2020;De Salazar et al, 2020). At present, there are no effective drugs available for control of coronaviruses infection causes COVID-19.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the binding affinity of noscapines with protease of SARS-CoV-2 for COVID-19 using MD simulations at different temperatures

Kumar

Kumari

Jayaraj

et al. 2020

Journal of Biomolecular Structure and Dynamics

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The current outbreak of a novel coronavirus, named as SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 occurred in 2019, is in dire need of finding potential therapeutic agents. Recently, ongoing viral epidemic due to coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) primarily affected mainland China that now threatened to spread to populations in most countries of the world. In spite of this, there is currently no antiviral drug/ vaccine available against coronavirus infection, COVID-19. In the present study, computer-aided drug design-based screening to find out promising inhibitors against the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) leads to infection, COVID-19. The lead therapeutic molecule was investigated through docking and molecular dynamics simulations. In this, binding affinity of noscapines(23B)-protease of SARS-CoV-2 complex was evaluated through MD simulations at different temperatures. Our research group has established that noscapine is a chemotherapeutic agent for the treatment of drug resistant cancers; however, noscapine was also being used as anti-malarial, anti-stroke and cough-suppressant. This study suggests for the first time that noscapine exerts its antiviral effects by inhibiting viral protein synthesis. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China

Cited by 255 publications

References 29 publications

Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases

Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases

Estimation of Unreported Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Infections from Reported Deaths: A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered–Dead Model

Understanding the binding affinity of noscapines with protease of SARS-CoV-2 for COVID-19 using MD simulations at different temperatures

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