A B S T R A C TThe mapping and assessment of risk of erosion is important for planning of natural resource management tool. A considerable number of researchers have shown interest in studies of environmental impacts caused by human activities that promote the accumulation of sediments in the river bed. The objective of this study was to estimate the sediment yield from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the São Francisco river basin under the present condition of land use and occupation. The simulation period comprised the years 1993 to 2010. Input data from the meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) were used. SWAT estimated soil erosion from the Universal Equation of Modified Soil Loss. The results of the simulations allowed the identification of areas with greater potential for water erosion. Landscape management in watersheds through the SWAT model can assist to identify areas susceptible to erosion processes.
ResumoNeste estudo foi analisando a tendência anual da Água Precipitável (AP) média global no período de 1984 a 2014. Foram utilizados dados extraídos das reanálises do National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) e apresentados na forma de tabela. A distribuição espacial da tendência de Água Precipitável também foi avaliada. Os testes de significância estatísticas de Mann-Kendall e t de Student foram aplicados para as tendências das séries globais. O valor médio de AP para todo o período é de 24 mm correspondendo a um volume estimado para toda a atmosfera do globo de cerca de 12 trilhões de metros cúbicos. Os resultados apontam tendências significativas de 0,026; 0,013 e 0,019 mm/ano para o H.N.; H.S. e todo o Globo, respectivamente. Áreas específicas do globo apontam tendências positivas de 0,09 mm/ano e outras negativas de até -0,09 mm/ano demonstrando assim uma distribuição não homogênea dessa tendência no globo. Palavras-chave: água precipitável, reanálises do NCEP/NCAR, tendência climática. Water Vapor Trend in the Atmosphere by NCEP/NCAR DATA AbstractIn this study the mean global annual precipitable water is analyzed for the period of 1984 to 2014. For this purpose the data extracted from the reanalyses of NCEP/NCAR was used and presented in the form of a table. The spacial distribution of the tendency of precipitable water also was presented. Mann-Kendall and student t significant tests were applied for the tendency of global series. The mean value of precipitable water for the period is of 24 mm corresponding to the volume estimated for the entire global atmosphere of about 12 x 10 12 m 3 . The results indicate significant tendencies of 0.026, 0.013 and 0.019 mm/year for the northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere and the entire globe, respectively. Specific areas of the globe show positive tendencies of 0.09 mm/year and the others show negative tendencies of the order of -0.09 mm/year demonstrating a non-homogeneous global tendency.
A modelagem é usada como um instrumento bastante útil no campo da Meteorologia. Portanto, objetiva-se ajustar o modelo BRAMS (Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) mediante dados observados e de reanálises geradas pelo ERA-Interim, no intuito de validar a simulação do vento resolvida pelo modelo. Essas informações são de grande utilidade em estudos prévios nos projetos de parques eólicos. Para verificação foram escolhidas três torres anemométricas, situadas nas localidades de Damião, Juazeirinho e Teixeira no Estado da Paraíba. A comparação é feita durante o mês de Outubro de 2010. Os resultados evidenciam que o modelo BRAMS simulou de forma satisfatória os dados reais, para todo o período de estudo, obtendo correlações significativas de 99% e os menores erros para todos os casos apresentados. Palavras-chave: BRAMS, reanálises, modelagem atmosférica, vento. Comparative Analysis of Wind Speed Simulated by BRAMS with Observed Data and Reanalysis AbstractModeling is used as a useful tool in the field of Meteorology. Therefore, the objective is to adjust the BRAMS (Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) by observed data and reanalysis generated by ERAInterim, in order to validate wind simulations resolved by the model. This information is extremely useful in previous studies in wind farm projects. For verification were chosen three anemometric towers, located in the localities of Damian, Juazeirinho and Teixeira in the state of Paraiba. The comparison is made during the month of October 2010. The results show that the BRAMS model simulated satisfactorily the actual data for the entire study period, obtaining significant correlations of 99% and minor errors in all cases presented.
O objetivo principal do presente trabalho foi observar a capacidade do modelo BRAMS e sua sensibilidade em simular a ocorrência de sistemas Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul -ZCAS, com a finalidade de observar o comportamento do fenômeno e sua interação com a escala interanual. Use of Atmospherics Parameters for the Detection of Episodes of SACZ in El Niño/La Niña Years through BRAMS A B S T R A C TThe main objective of this study was observe the ability of the BRAMS model and its sensitivity in simulating the occurrence of systems Convergence Zone of the South Atlantic -SACZ, with the purpose to observe their behavior and interaction with the interannual scale. Were selected two SACZ events: from 02 to 06 December 2009 (during the El Niño) and 27 to 31 December 2010 (during the La Niña). The Mesoscale analysis reveals important dynamic variations related to SACZ in both cases. All variables show coherence and BRAMS could simulate well the main area of activity of the SACZ, both for the case of El Niño (2009) as to the case of La Niña (2010).
Foram feitas comparações entre a média da precipitação observada na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Piancó com a precipitação média obtida de duas diferentes formas: 1) gerada pelo modelo atmosférico por intermédio de parametrização e 2) obtida pelo balanço hídrico da atmosfera a partir de dados do modelo. O objetivo principal é de avaliar a geração de dados de precipitação por modelo atmosférico para entrada em modelos hidrológicos concentrados, tipo chuva-vazão, possibilitando previsões de vazões. Foram estabelecidos quatro períodos de dez dias para os meses de Use of Brams Model in Obtaining the Precipitation for Input in ConcentratedHydrological Model A B S T R A C TComparisons were made between the mean observed areal rainfall in the Piancó River basin with the mean rainfall obtained through two different ways: 1) generated by the atmospheric model through parameterization and 2) obtained by atmospheric water balance from the model data. The main purpose is to evaluate the precipitation data generated by the atmospheric model to be used as input in concentrated hydrological models, rainfall-runoff models, allowing runoff predictions . Four periods of ten days each were selected in February, 2003, 2004, 2006, and March, 2005. The mesoscale atmospheric model used was the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS). Data from National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis were used to make the simulations on finer scale. The results show interesting aspects in the distribution of rainfall over the basin. Rainfall data generated by BRAMS underestimated the observed data; however, it shows good correlation. The results also show that the BRAMS model is an important tool to provide input data to concentrated rainfall-runoff models.
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