Risk and promotive effects were investigated as predictors of persistent serious delinquency in male participants of the Pittsburgh Youth Study (R. Loeber, D. P. Farrington, M. Stouthamer-Loeber, & W. B. van Kammen, 1998), living in different neighborhoods. Participants were studied over ages 13-19 years for the oldest sample and 7-13 years for the youngest sample. Risk and promotive effects were studied in 6 domains: child behavior, child attitudes, school and leisure activities, peer behaviors, family functioning, and demographics. Regression models improved when promotive effects were included with risk effects in predicting persistent serious delinquency. Disadvantaged neighborhoods, compared with better neighborhoods, had a higher prevalence of risk effects and a lower prevalence of promotive effects. However, predictive relations between risk and promotive effects and persistent serious delinquency were linear and similar across neighborhood socioeconomic status.

In this prospective study, the authors predicted violence and homicide in 3 representative school samples (N = 1,517). Participants were part of a longitudinal, multiple cohort study on the development of delinquency in boys from late childhood to early adulthood in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thirty-three participants were convicted of homicide, 193 participants were convicted of serious violence, whereas another 498 participants self-reported serious violence. Predictors of violence included risk factors in the domains of child, family, school, and demographic characteristics. Boys with 4 or more violence risk factors were 6 times more likely to later commit violence in comparison with boys with fewer than 4 risk factors (odds ratio [OR] = 6.05). A subset of risk factors related to violence also predicted homicide among violent offenders. Boys with 4 or more risk factors for homicide were 14 times more likely to later commit homicide than violent individuals with fewer than 4 risk factors (OR = 14.48). Implications for the prevention of violence and homicide are discussed.

Many delinquent youth stop offending sometime in late adolescence or early adulthood. However, little is known about individual differences in desistance and which factors promote or inhibit desistance. In the current study, young males in the oldest sample of the Pittsburgh Youth Study were followed from ages 13 to 25. About one-third became persistent serious delinquents between ages 13 and 19. Out of that group, almost 40% desisted in serious offending between ages 20 and 25. Significantly more of the desisters, compared to the persisters in serious delinquency, had been employed or in school. Bivariate analyses demonstrated many predictors of desistance of serious delinquency in early adulthood in the domains of individual, family, and peer factors measured from early adolescence onward. Multiple regression analyses showed that the following promotive factors were associated with desistance: low physical punishment by parents in early adolescence and being employed or in school in early adulthood. The following risk factors were inversely associated with desistance during early adulthood: serious delinquency during late adolescence, hard drug use, gang membership, and positive perception of problem behavior in early adulthood. The article discusses the implications of promotive and risk factors for preventive interventions.

Data from a longitudinal, inner-city community sample were used to examine the prevalence of child maltreatment in males and to relate this to disruptive and delinquent child behavior. By age 18 years, almost one fourth of the families had been referred to Children and Youth Services (CYS). Investigation by the CYS resulted in substantiated maltreatment of 10% of the participants, mostly for physical abuse and neglect. Almost all maltreatment was perpetrated by people living in the same house as the victim. Maltreatment was related to the boys progressing on three pathways in disruptive and delinquent behavior: authority conflict pathway, overt pathway, and covert pathway. Two thirds of the victims showed authority conflict problems, and almost all of the maltreated boys displayed behaviors characteristic of the overt and covert pathways. Victims, compared to matched controls, were more likely to have engaged in behaviors characteristic of the authority conflict and the overt pathways but less strongly engaged in behaviors associated with the covert pathway. Victims were also more likely than controls to have a referral to juvenile court. Most of the CYS contact tended to precede or co-occur with onset of overt and covert problem behavior, but about half of the onset of authority conflict behaviors tended to precede contact with CYS.

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Study objective: To provide reliability information for a brief observational measure of physical disorder and determine its relation with neighbourhood level crime and health variables after controlling for census based measures of concentrated poverty and minority concentration. Design: Psychometric analysis of block observation data comprising a brief measure of neighbourhood physical disorder, and cross sectional analysis of neighbourhood physical disorder, neighbourhood crime and birth statistics, and neighbourhood level poverty and minority concentration. Setting: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US (2000 population = 334 563). Participants: Pittsburgh neighbourhoods (n = 82) and their residents (as reflected in neighbourhood level statistics). Main results: The physical disorder index showed adequate reliability and validity and was associated significantly with rates of crime, firearm injuries and homicides, and teen births, while controlling for concentrated poverty and minority population. Conclusions: This brief measure of neighbourhood physical disorder may help increase our understanding of how community level factors reflect health and crime outcomes.

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