This study aims to contribute empirical evidence to the debate about the future of work in an increasingly robotised world. We implement a data-driven approach to study the technological transition in six leading Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. First, we perform a cross-country and cross-sector cluster analysis based on the OECD-STAN database. Second, using the International Federation of Robotics database, we bridge these results with those regarding the sectoral density of robots. We show that the process of robotisation is industry- and country-sensitive. In the future, participants in the political and academic debate may be split into optimists and pessimists regarding the future of human labour; however, the two stances may not be contradictory.

This paper analyses both theoretically and empirically the effects of immigration on the wage rate of native workers. There is rare evidence in empirical literature that immigration generates a fall in the wages of manual workers. By hypothesizing an economic system where advanced firms buy an intermediate good from traditional firms, which employ manual workers in both clean and dirty tasks, the latter being more disliked by native workers, we present a theoretical model that justifies these results. We conclude that native skilled wages always increase whereas native unskilled wages can both increase or decrease with immigration. An empirical analysis of the Italian labour market follows, showing that native workers' wages always rise with immigration. Copyright 2010 CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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The objective of the analysis is to study the relationships between GDP, energy consumption, renewable energy production, and CO 2 emissions in some European transition economies in the period 1990-2018. We use the growth rates of per capita values, in a panel VAR approach where all variables are typically treated as endogenous, allowing some inference on the causality of the relationships. The decision to focus on European transition countries is motivated by the fact that a significant part of the future of the green economy in Europe depends on the environmental and energy policies that will be implemented by these countries. In the transition economies (and years) included in the analysis, our findings suggest that investing in energy efficiency is good for the competitiveness of economies (in terms of effects on GDP growth) and is good for the environment (in terms of diminishing CO 2 emissions). Finally, an increasing production of renewable energies reduces CO 2 emissions.

Economic theory is paying increasing attention to a non-observed economy (NOE) and its causes. Recently, a couple of works (Rosser et al., 2000, 2003) have claimed that there is a positive relationship between income inequality and the size of NOE. This supposed relationship is not so clear and deserves in-depth analysis. There is a crucial aspect that has been completely avoided in these studies: income inequality is mainly measured using 'regular' incomes and this fact could lead to some bias. The existence of a certain size of NOE implies some income evasion that can affect the inequality indexes used in the study of the relationship between NOE and inequality. Including the regional share of NOE in a wage equation, I find that, in the specific case of the Italian private sector employees, the income evasion attached to NOE tends to reduce inequality measured by regular wages statistics.Underground economy, inequality, tax evasion,

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

This paper investigates the causes of disproportionate increases of sovereign yields with respect to the interest rate on the 10 years German Bund within the Eurozone. Empirical evidence drawn from the Bank for International Settlements dataset on banks' portfolios shows that rapid financial integration, following the launch of the monetary union, resulted in excess exposure of Core countries' banks in the Peripheral countries' financial assets. In order to endogenize the possibility of contagion effects, we conduct econometric estimates through a Global Vector Autoregressive model, where each country's spread depends upon all Eurozone countries' spreads. Results show that after the burst of the financial crisis the Core countries' sovereign yields are essentially determined by the international risk aversion, whereas the spreads of Peripheral countries mainly depend on fundamentals, namely the public debt/GDP ratio and the Real Effective Exchange Rate values with respect to the Eurozone average. These results are supported by the estimate of an impulse response analysis. Macroeconomic failures in public finances and competitiveness seem to originate the exceptional increases in sovereign spreads of the Periphery, through a contagion effect which is limited to this group of Eurozone countries.Keywords Sovereign bond spreads Á Monetary union Á International risk aversion Á Contagion JEL Classification E42 Á F36 Á F42 Á G12 Á H63

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