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The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all Sub-Saharan economies through a multitude of impact channels. The study determines the medium-term macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic on the Kenyan economy and links the results with a detailed food security and nutrition microsimulation module. It thus evaluates the effectiveness of the adopted government measures to reduce the negative outcomes on food security and to enable economic recovery at aggregate, sectoral and household levels. Through income support measures, the food sector and food demand partially recover. However, 1.3% of households still fall below calorie intake thresholds, many of which are in rural areas. Results also indicate that the state of food security in Kenya remains vulnerable to the evolution of the pandemic abroad.

In the summer of 2014 Russia imposed a ban on most agri-food products from countries enforcing Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia. We use a specific factors computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short-run impact of this retaliatory policy. The baseline is carefully designed to isolate the impacts of the ban on the European Union (EU), Russia itself and a selection of key trade partners. The modelling of the ban follows a novel approach, where it is treated as a loss of established trade preferences via reductions in consumer utility in the Armington import function. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest income loss (about €3.4 billion) while the EU recovers part of its lost trade through expansion of exports to other markets. An ex-post comparison between simulation results and observed trade data reveals the model predictions to be broadly accurate, thereby validating the robustness of the modelling approach.

Highlights Assessment of food waste reduction impact needs to include economic and biophysical indicators. Economy-wide models as proposed in this paper can account for all market and non-market impacts of reducing food waste. Reducing households' food waste increases savings; it decreases agri-food production and to a minor extent GDP. Environmental indicators are improving as EU land use, water abstraction and greenhouse gas emissions decline.

The concept of 'bioeconomy' is gathering momentum in European Union (EU) policy circles as a sustainable model of growth to reconcile continued wealth generation and employment with bio-based sustainable resource usage. Unfortunately, in the literature an economy-wide quantitative assessment covering the full diversity of this sector is lacking due to relatively poor data availability for disaggregated bio-based activities. This research represents a first step by employing social accounting matrices (SAMs) for each EU27 member encompassing a highly disaggregated treatment of traditional 'bio-based' agricultural and food activities, as well as additional identifiable bioeconomic activities from the national accounts data. Employing backward-linkage (BL), forward-linkage (FL) and employment multipliers, the aim is to profile and assess comparative structural patterns both across bioeconomic sectors and EU Member States. The results indicate six clusters of EU member countries with homogeneous bioeconomy structures. Within cluster statistical tests reveal a high tendency toward 'backward orientation' or demand driven wealth generation, whilst inter-cluster statistical comparisons by bio-based sector show only a moderate degree of heterogeneous BL wealth generation and, with the exception of only two sectors, a uniformly homogeneous degree of FL wealth generation. With the exception of forestry, fishing and wood activities, bio-based employment generation prospects are below non bioeconomy activities. Finally, milk and dairy are established as 'key sectors'.

This study provides quantitative assessments of the impacts of efficiency enhancement for different types of irrigation water under water scarcity conditions. It employs a single country CGE (STAGE 2) model calibrated to an extended version of a recently constructed SAM for Egypt 2008/09. The SAM segments the agricultural accounts by season and by irrigation scheme, including Nile- and groundwater-dependent as well as rain-fed agricultural activities. The simulations show that Egypt should manage potential reductions in the supply of Nile water with more efficient irrigation practices which increase the productivity of Nile water, groundwater and irrigated land. The results suggest a more ambitious plan to boost irrigation efficiency for summer rice would be desirable in order to outweigh any potential shrinkage in output and exports. Furthermore, even doubling all non-conventional water resources is not sufficient to compensate the potential adverse impacts of Nile water losses. This highlights the importance of irrigation efficiency for the Egyptian economy.

Abstract:The bio-based economy will be crucial in achieving a sustainable development, covering all ranges of natural resources. In this sense, it is very relevant to analyze the economic links between the bioeconomic sectors and the rest of the economy, determining their total and decomposed impact on economic growth. One of the major problems in carrying out this analysis is the lack of information and complete databases that allow analysis of the bioeconomy and its effects on other economic activities. To overcome this issue, disaggregated social accounting matrices have been obtained for the highly bio-based sectors of the 28 European Union member states. Using this complex database, a linear multiplier analysis shows the future key role of bio-based sectors in boosting economic development in the EU. Results show that the bioeconomy has not yet unleashed its full potential in terms of output and job creation. Thus, output and employment multipliers show that many sectors related to the bioeconomy are still underperforming compared to the EU average, particularly those with higher value added; although, they are still crucial sectors for the wealth creation.

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