A linkage between the biophysical and the economic: Assessing the global market impacts of soil erosion

Sartori, Martina; Philippidis, George; Ferrari, Emanuele; Borrelli, Pasquale; Lugato, Emanuele; Montanarella, Luca; Panagos, Panos

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.05.014

Cited by 191 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…It is of general interest to all countries around the world to avoid a decrease in agricultural productivity ( 41 ). According to our preliminary estimates given here, the effect of climate change will likely be so pronounced that it will overwhelm the mitigation potential of adopting soil-conserving agricultural practices.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)

Borrelli

Robinson

Panagos

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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788

314

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Soil erosion is a major global soil degradation threat to land, freshwater, and oceans. Wind and water are the major drivers, with water erosion over land being the focus of this work; excluding gullying and river bank erosion. Improving knowledge of the probable future rates of soil erosion, accelerated by human activity, is important both for policy makers engaged in land use decision-making and for earth-system modelers seeking to reduce uncertainty on global predictions. Here we predict future rates of erosion by modeling change in potential global soil erosion by water using three alternative (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Global predictions rely on a high spatial resolution Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)-based semiempirical modeling approach (GloSEM). The baseline model (2015) predicts global potential soil erosion rates of 43−7+9.2 Pg yr−1, with current conservation agriculture (CA) practices estimated to reduce this by ∼5%. Our future scenarios suggest that socioeconomic developments impacting land use will either decrease (SSP1-RCP2.6–10%) or increase (SSP2-RCP4.5 +2%, SSP5-RCP8.5 +10%) water erosion by 2070. Climate projections, for all global dynamics scenarios, indicate a trend, moving toward a more vigorous hydrological cycle, which could increase global water erosion (+30 to +66%). Accepting some degrees of uncertainty, our findings provide insights into how possible future socioeconomic development will affect soil erosion by water using a globally consistent approach. This preliminary evidence seeks to inform efforts such as those of the United Nations to assess global soil erosion and inform decision makers developing national strategies for soil conservation.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)

Borrelli

Robinson

Panagos

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

788

314

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“…However, it is important to note that there are R-factor estimates within the UPB with higher values than those found in most parts of the world [48]. High soil erosion values are associated with the high intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation found in this region [49].…”

Section: Soil Erosion Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…Despite finding the greatest soil erosion increase in the highlands, it is important to note that the on-site soil erosion effects that have occurred in the Cerrado and Amazon also have off-site effects on the dynamics of the Pantanal. Merten and Minella [49] evaluated different scenarios on soil and water conservation in Brazil, and concluded that the worst scenario would be the conversion of the Cerrado and the Amazon to agricultural land. This scenario could increase the total soil erosion in Brazil (currently about 800 million metric tons a year) by as much as 20%.…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Change and Land-cover And Land-use Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climate and Land-Cover Changes on Soil Erosion in Brazilian Pantanal

et al. 2019

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The Pantanal biome integrates the lowlands of the Upper Paraguay Basin (UPB), which is hydrologically connected to the biomes of the Cerrado and Amazon (the highlands of the UPB). The effects of recent land-cover and land-use (LCLU) changes in the highlands, combined with climate change, are still poorly understood in this region. Here, we investigate the effects of soil erosion in the Brazilian Pantanal under climate and LCLU changes by combining different scenarios of projected rainfall erosivity and land-cover management. We compute the average annual soil erosion for the baseline (2012) and projected scenarios for 2020, 2035, and 2050. For the worst scenario, we noted an increase in soil loss of up to 100% from 2012 to 2050, associated with cropland expansion in some parts of the highlands. Furthermore, for the same period, our results indicated an increase of 20 to 40% in soil loss in parts of the Pantanal biome, which was associated with farmland increase (mainly for livestock) in the lowlands. Therefore, to ensure water, food, energy, and ecosystem service security over the next decades in the whole UPB, robust and comprehensive planning measures need to be developed, especially for the most impacted areas found in our study.

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“…In this case, changes in the fertility condition of agricultural lands, their reclamation condition as well as the course of degradation processes: erosion, salinization, swamping, overwetting, waterlogging, pollution, desertification, disturbance, overgrowth, cluttering and others shall be analyzed. Soil degradation processes are a global problem and lead to significant losses (Sartori et al, 2019).…”

Section: Carried Out Land Monitoring In the Russian Federationmentioning

confidence: 99%