In 1997 Soufriére Hills Volcano on Montserrat produced 88 Vulcanian explosions: 13 between 4 and 12 August and 75 between 22 September and 21 October. Each episode was preceded by a large dome collapse that decompressed the conduit and led to the conditions for explosive fragmentation. The explosions, which occurred at intervals of 2.5 to 63 hours, with a mean of 10 hours, were transient events, with an initial high-intensity phase lasting a few tens of seconds and a lower-intensity, waning phase lasting 1 to 3 hours. In all but one explosion, fountain collapse during the first 10-20 seconds generated pyroclastic surges that swept out to 1-2 km before lofting, as well as high-concentration pumiceous pyroclastic flows that travelled up to 6 km down all major drainages around the dome. Buoyant plumes ascended 3-15 km into the atmosphere, where they spread out as umbrella clouds. Most umbrella clouds were blown to the north or NW by high-level (8-18 km) winds, whereas the lower, waning plumes were dispersed to the west or NW by low-level (<5 km) winds. Exit velocities measured from videos ranged from 40 to 140 ms-1 and ballistic blocks were thrown as far as 1.7 km from the dome. Each explosion discharged on average 3 x 105m3 of magma, about one-third forming fallout and two-thirds forming pyroclastic flows and surges, and emptied the conduit to a depth of 0.5-2 km or more. Two overlapping components were distinguished in the explosion seismic signals: a low-frequency (c. 1 Hz) one due to the explosion itself, and a high-frequency (>2 Hz) one due to fountain collapse, ballistic impact and pyroclastic flow. In many explosions a delay between the explosion onset and start of the pyroclastic flow signal (typically 10-20 seconds) recorded the time necessary for ballistics and the collapsing fountain to hit the ground. The explosions in August were accompanied by cyclic patterns of seismicity and edifice deformation due to repeated pressurization of the upper conduit. The angular, tabular forms of many fallout pumices show that they preserve vesicularities and shapes acquired upon fragmentation, and suggest that the explosions were driven by brittle fragmentation of overpressured magmatic foam with at least 55 vol% bubbles present in the upper conduit prior to each event.

Pyroclastic flows were formed at Soufrière Hills Volcano by lava-dome collapse and by fountain collapse associated with Vulcanian explosions. Major episodes of dome collapse, lasting tens of minutes to a few hours, followed escalating patterns of progressively larger flows with longer runouts. Block-and-ash flow deposit volumes range from <0.1 to 25 x 106 m3 with runouts of 1-7 km. The flows formed coarse-grained block-and-ash flow deposits, with associated fine-grained pyroclastic surge deposits and ashfall deposits. Small flows commonly formed lobate channelized deposits. Large block-and-ash flows in unconfined areas produced sheet-like deposits with tapering margins. the development of pyroclastic surges was variable depending on topography and dome pore pressure. Pyroclastic surge deposits commonly had a lower layer poor in fine ash that was formed at the current front and an upper layer rich in fine ash. Block-and-ash flows were erosive, producing striated and scoured bedrock surfaces and forming channels, many metres deep, in earlier deposits. Abundant accidental material was incorporated. Pyroclastic flow deposits formed by fountain collapse were pumiceous, with narrow sinuous, lobate morphologies and well developed levees and snouts. Two coastal fans formed where pyroclastic flows entered the sea. Their seaward extent was limited by a submarine slope break.

[1] The characteristics of the open vent activity of Villarrica volcano, Chile, were studied in detail by integrating visual observations of the lava lake, analysis of the seismic tremor, and measurements of SO 2 flux. The outgassing activity comprises a persistent gas plume emission from the bottom of the crater as well as frequent explosive events. Three main styles of bubble bursting were identified at the surface of the active lava lake: seething magma, small short-lived lava fountains, and Strombolian explosions. Seething magma consists of continual burst of relatively small bubbles (a few meters in diameter) with varying strength over the entire surface of the lava lake. Small lava fountains, seen as a vigorous extension of seething magma, commonly have durations of 20-120 s and reach 10-40 m high above the lava lake. Correlations between seismicity and visual observations indicate that the seismic tremor is mostly caused by the explosive outgassing activity. Furthermore, for different periods between 2000 and 2006, during which the activity remained comparable, the real-time seismic amplitude measurement system (RSAM) and SO 2 emission rates show a very good correlation. Higher SO 2 emissions appeared to be related to higher levels of the lava lake, stronger bubble bursting activity, and changes in the morphology and texture of the crater floor. Background (low) levels of activity correspond to a lava lake located >80 m below the crater rim, small and/or blocky morphology of the roof, seismic amplitude (RSAM) lower than 25 units, few volcano-tectonic earthquakes, and daily averages of SO 2 emissions lower than 600 Mg/d.

Accurate modeling of rockfalls and pyroclastic flows is still an open issue, partly due to a lack of measurements related to their dynamics. Using seismic data from the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and granular flow modeling, we show that the power laws relating the seismic energy Es to the seismic duration ts and relating the loss of potential energy ΔEp to the flow duration tf are very similar, like the power laws observed at Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island. Observations showing that tf≃ts suggest a constant ratio Es/ΔEp≃10−5. This similarity in these two power laws can be obtained only when the granular flow model uses a friction coefficient that decreases with the volume transported. Furthermore, with this volume‐dependent friction coefficient, the simulated force applied by the flow to the ground correlates well with the seismic energy, highlighting the signature of this friction weakening effect in seismic data.

Abstract.The

No abstract

Risk assessment of rare natural hazards, such as large volcanic block and ash or pyroclastic flows, is addressed. Assessment is approached through a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling, and extreme-event probability computation. A computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical modeling of the available data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive. The solution instead requires a combination of adaptive design of computer model approximations (emulators) and rare event simulation. The techniques that are developed for risk assessment are illustrated on a test-bed example involving volcanic flow.

Four mechanisms caused tephra fallout at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, during the 1995-1999 period: explosive activity (mainly of Vulcanian type), dome collapses, ash-venting and phreatic explosions. The first two mechanisms contributed most of the tephra-fallout deposits (minimum total dense-rock equivalent volume of 23 x 106 m3), which vary from massive to layered and represent the amalgamation of the deposits from a large numbers of events. The volume of co-pyroclastic-flow fallout tephra is in the range 4-16° of the associated pyroclastic flow deposits. Dome-collapse fallout tephra is characterized by ash particles generated by fragmentation in the pyroclastic flows and by elutriation of fines. Vulcanian fallout tephra is coarser grained, as it is formed by magma fragmentation in the conduit and by elutriation from the fountain-collapse flows and initial surges. Vulcanian fallout tephra is typically polymodal, whereas dome-collapse fallout tephra is predominantly unimodal. Polymodality is attributed to: overlapping of fallout tephra of different types, premature fallout of fine particles, multiple tephra-fallout sources, and differences in density and grain-size distribution of different components. During both dome collapses and explosions, ash fell as aggregates of various sizes and types. Accretionary lapilli grain size is independent of their diameter and is characterized by multiple subpopulations with a main mode at 5ø. Satellite data indicate that very fine ash can stay in a volcanic cloud for several hours and show that exponential thinning rates observed in proximal areas cannot apply in distal areas.