The Arctic has historically been a strategically important region for Russia, from before the Cold War to the recent efforts in increasing shipping along the Northern Sea Route. Russia holds the largest share of petroleum resources in the Arctic, the governance model for which has been changing over the past few decades based on the current political priorities, external events, and geophysical changes in the region. Following the conflict in Ukraine, the European Union and the United States adopted sanctions limiting the cooperation between Russian and western companies for Arctic offshore petroleum development. This paper analyses transformation in national governance of natural resources in the Russian Arctic, focusing on offshore oil and gas. It provides historical background of the governance model to facilitate the analysis of the effects of western sanctions on the current resource development and its regulation. Through the analysis of legal and policy documents, this paper provides an outlook for future developments in the Russian Arctic offshore resource governance.
The article describes the new methodology for forecasting demand for petroleum products and specific groups of petroleum products globally and in various countries (nodes) and the results of its application for petroleum products demand forecasting in Russia. The developed methodology incorporates various forecasting approaches: correlation, factor forecasting, technical, economic and econometric analysis with elements of economic and mathematical modelling. This methodology may be used for a wide range of tasks, including markets forecasts for specific petroleum products, e.g., jet fuel or gasoline and integrated analysis of the world oil market development prospects and the future role of petroleum products in the energy balance of individual countries and regions.
Diversification of energy sources in the road transport sector is becoming a global trend with the emergence of economically and technologically viable alternative fuels, such as electricity, biofuels, compressed natural gas, and others. With the transport sector generating over 50% of global oil demand, this trend obviously holds great significance. The Russian Federation, while being one of the world's major oil producers as well as energy consumers, is falling behind on this trend. However, the prospects for change are quite tangible. The article presents a long term outlook for changes in the Russian road transportation sector's fuel mix. The calculations demonstrate that switching to natural gas and electricity will reduce the share of petroleum products from 95% in 2015 to 74-86% by 2040. Nevertheless, the extent of support by the Russian Government for the infrastructural development will be the key factor to determine the end result. The incentives for natural gas and electric vehicles will also play a large role. The issue of fuel mix diversification will have to be resolved against the background of a 75% increase in the sector's energy consumption, expected in the next 20 yr. Petrol will remain a key fuel for transportation but its share will decrease from 59 to 40-47%, while the share of diesel will remain at 34-39%.
T he development of production and consumption technologies for the road transport has led to large scale introduction of alternative energy in this sector. These alternatives to the conventional petroleum fuels include biofuels, electricity, natural gas and synthetic fuels produced from coal and natural gas. However, it is very important to point out, that inter-fuel competition is determined not only by the development of technologies, but also by such parameters as availability, fuel cost, consumer preferences and government legislations, all of which vary greatly across the globe. In other words, the very same technologies can be capable of radically altering the fuel mix in some countries while having little to none impact in the others. The topic of the inter-fuel competition development in the transportation sector holds much importance for Russia, as the country's fuels mix is almost totally dominated by the petroleum products. The diversification of energy sources for transport may positively influence energy security and domestic fuels market stability; reduce the strain on ecology, especially in major cities; all the while increasing Russian oil and petroleum products export potential. The article presents results of the research for prospects of the developments in Russian transport sector fuel mix. The research was carried out using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling under various scenario assumptions. The analysis has shown that natural gas and, to a lesser extent, electricity hold the best prospects as petroleum products substitutes in the long-term. Their cumulative share in the total energy consumption of the road transport sector has the potential of reaching as high as 26% by 2040. Yet, the extent of substitution largely depends on the government actions for infrastructure development and tax incentives for alternative vehicle owners.
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