Energy Consumption of the Russian Road Transportation Sector: Prospects for Inter-Fuel Competition in Terms of Technological Innovation

Abstract

T he development of production and consumption technologies for the road transport has led to large scale introduction of alternative energy in this sector. These alternatives to the conventional petroleum fuels include biofuels, electricity, natural gas and synthetic fuels produced from coal and natural gas. However, it is very important to point out, that inter-fuel competition is determined not only by the development of technologies, but also by such parameters as availability, fuel cost, consumer preferences and government legislations, all of which vary greatly across the globe. In other words, the very same technologies can be capable of radically altering the fuel mix in some countries while having little to none impact in the others. The topic of the inter-fuel competition development in the transportation sector holds much importance for Russia, as the country's fuels mix is almost totally dominated by the petroleum products. The diversification of energy sources for transport may positively influence energy security and domestic fuels market stability; reduce the strain on ecology, especially in major cities; all the while increasing Russian oil and petroleum products export potential. The article presents results of the research for prospects of the developments in Russian transport sector fuel mix. The research was carried out using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling under various scenario assumptions. The analysis has shown that natural gas and, to a lesser extent, electricity hold the best prospects as petroleum products substitutes in the long-term. Their cumulative share in the total energy consumption of the road transport sector has the potential of reaching as high as 26% by 2040. Yet, the extent of substitution largely depends on the government actions for infrastructure development and tax incentives for alternative vehicle owners.

Predictive Assessment of the Potential Electric Vehicle Market and the Effects of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Russia

“…Помимо этого, в связи с введением санкций в РФ ограничены поставки литиевой руды и наблюдается дефицит сырья 2 , необходимого для разработки и промышленного производства отечественных электромобилей. Возобновление добычи лития в РФ потребует значительных инвестиций, что при текущих объемах потребления лития в России является экономически неоправданным.…”

“…Параметры p и q оценены с использованием нелинейного МНК, для построения модели применялись библиотеки регрессионного анализа и машинного обучения scikit-learn 1.1.1 для языка программирования Python 2 .…”

“…Аналогичный показатель для газовых ТЭС варьируется в диапазоне 403-513 г CO 2 на 1 кВт•ч. В России доля выбросов от электростанций составляет около 78 % общего количества выбросов диоксида углерода 2 .…”

The Impact of Technological Innovation on Energy Consumption in OECD Economies: the role of Outward Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade Openness

“…Hence, Liu et al (2022) paper put it succinctly, "a country can not only realize technological progress through independent innovation, but also through technology spillover of foreign trade and global investment". Considering the global rapid economic growth and development with the expected increase in energy demand, numerous studies have sought to examine the relationship between technological innovation and energy demand (Liu et al, 2021;Zhu et al, 2021;Li et al, 2021;Zeraibi et al, 2020;Zhang et al, 2020;Murad et al, 2019;Grushevenko et al, 2018;Dudin et al, 2017;Zhang and Lu, 2015;Chou, 2015). But to our knowledge, most of these studies examine the direct impact of technological innovation on energy consumption, and the analysis are often in country-specific framework (Li and Solaymani, 2021;Zhang et al, 2020;Grushevenko et al, 2018;Chou et al, 2015).…”

“…Considering the global rapid economic growth and development with the expected increase in energy demand, numerous studies have sought to examine the relationship between technological innovation and energy demand (Liu et al, 2021;Zhu et al, 2021;Li et al, 2021;Zeraibi et al, 2020;Zhang et al, 2020;Murad et al, 2019;Grushevenko et al, 2018;Dudin et al, 2017;Zhang and Lu, 2015;Chou, 2015). But to our knowledge, most of these studies examine the direct impact of technological innovation on energy consumption, and the analysis are often in country-specific framework (Li and Solaymani, 2021;Zhang et al, 2020;Grushevenko et al, 2018;Chou et al, 2015). Nevertheless, few studies have examined how and whether other economic determinants drive the impact of technological innovation on energy consumption (Uddin et al, 2022 -financial development;Lin and Chen, 2020 -non-ferrous metal).…”