Russia's road transport sector: Prospects for alternative energy

Abstract

Diversification of energy sources in the road transport sector is becoming a global trend with the emergence of economically and technologically viable alternative fuels, such as electricity, biofuels, compressed natural gas, and others. With the transport sector generating over 50% of global oil demand, this trend obviously holds great significance. The Russian Federation, while being one of the world's major oil producers as well as energy consumers, is falling behind on this trend. However, the prospects for change are quite tangible. The article presents a long term outlook for changes in the Russian road transportation sector's fuel mix. The calculations demonstrate that switching to natural gas and electricity will reduce the share of petroleum products from 95% in 2015 to 74-86% by 2040. Nevertheless, the extent of support by the Russian Government for the infrastructural development will be the key factor to determine the end result. The incentives for natural gas and electric vehicles will also play a large role. The issue of fuel mix diversification will have to be resolved against the background of a 75% increase in the sector's energy consumption, expected in the next 20 yr. Petrol will remain a key fuel for transportation but its share will decrease from 59 to 40-47%, while the share of diesel will remain at 34-39%.

A long-term outlook on Russian oil industry facing internal and external challenges

“…For the sake of forecasting liquid fuel demand a complex modelling tool combining "top-down" "bottomup" was utilized, described in Mitrova et al (2015) and Grushevenko et al (2018b); Crude oil production capacity for brownfield and greenfield projects was calculated using the Hubbert linearization approach covered by Mohr and Evans (2010) and Michaelides (2017); Russian oil refining forecasting is handled via simulation model, described by the authors in Kapustin and Grushevenko (2018a); The overall balance of Russian oil sector was composed through the application of World Oil Model (WOM). WOM is a static optimization model of full equilibrium.…”

Effect of biomethane substitution on combustion noise and performance of a dual fuel common rail direct injection diesel engine

“…1,2 Among the various alternative fuels, biomethane or renewable natural gas (>95% methane) is very promising and highly attractive in the transportation sector. 3,4 Biogas (60%-70% methane) is one of the most valuable products that can be extracted from organic waste (plant, animal, and food waste) by anaerobic decomposition. 5,6 The higher percentage of carbon dioxide (30%-47%) in the biogas, however, reduces its calorific value and hence limits its application as fuel for internal combustion engines.…”

“…Increasing global energy demand and consumption of fossil fuels, accompanied by concerns about depleting petroleum resources and rising global emissions, have led to a search for sustainable and clean energy sources 1,2 . Among the various alternative fuels, biomethane or renewable natural gas (>95% methane) is very promising and highly attractive in the transportation sector 3,4 . Biogas (60%–70% methane) is one of the most valuable products that can be extracted from organic waste (plant, animal, and food waste) by anaerobic decomposition 5,6 .…”