Research on climate change was conducted in Bali, Indonesia, using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), which works with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. The history data means average data from 1971 to 2000, climate projections with RCP4.5 scenario means average data from 2040 to 2069, and anomaly (climate change) is RCP4.5 minus history. The results represent the history of temperature between 22.5-27.5 0C and the projection between 25.5-29.5 0C. Temperature anomalies can be observed in much of northern Bali, which has increased from about 1.6 to 2.9 0C. There is a trend towards reduced (drier) humidity in most parts of Bali, particularly in the northern part of Bali. In contrast, a small amount in the south increases the (wetter) humidity. The comfort index of the Bali region in history is still relatively comfortable (20-26 0C). The projection condition RCP 4.5, there is no comfortable area with an index of more than 26 0C (hot and dry).
Coastal zone is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The increase of sea wave and sea level rise threaten coastal zone. The purpose of this study is to determine trends of significant wave height and sea level in the southern waters of the special region of Yogyakarta. The data used consists of daily significant wave height from 2010-2018, weekly absolute dynamics topography from 2005-2018 and daily surface wind from 2010-2018. Trends of significant wave height and sea level were analyzed by using linear regression. The results showed that significant wave height during the east season until the second transition season was higher than the west season and the first transition season. Vice versa, sea level during the east season until the second transition season was lower than the west season and the first transition season. Trends of significant wave height has increased of 0.63 cm/year, meanwhile sea level rise reached 0.82 cm/years.
Indonesia is a tropical maritime country that has high complexity in terms of atmospheric dynamics. Understanding of atmospheric conditions is very important to obtain valid knowledge and atmospheric models. This understanding can be obtained through adequate data support. Vertical atmospheric data is very limited so it is necessary to develop equipment to be able to measure and provide valid data. one of the equipment used to measure the atmosphere vertically is called radiosonde. The development of this radiosonde has been carried out by various parties, one of them by PSTA LAPAN. This development is focused on the antenna system and the accuracy of the temperature data received. The antenna that is designed is an Omni 5/8λ antenna integrated with LNA. Receiving radiosonde data using antenna up to a height of 36 km. The temperature data that has been obtained is validated using radiosonde Vaisala and Meisei data. The temperature analysis is done by using Mean Bias Error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). After being compared with the reference data, the RMSE values of 1.2 and MBE 2.3 were obtained with a correlation of 0.9. From these results it can be seen that the temperature data obtained is in accordance with atmospheric conditions, so this temperature sensor can be used for vertical atmospheric measurements.
Climate Change is one of the events that can change climate components due to global warming events. One of the changes in climate components can cause changes in rainfall in an area. While changes in rainfall conditions in an area can cause increased vulnerability of a region to potential of drought. In this research, the effects of climate change on the drought potential in Sumbawa Island region was investigated, where this region is one of the areas prone to drought in Indonesia. Climate projection until 2040 was carried out using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) model with 14 km spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution. While the drought index is calculated by the SPI (Standardize Precipitation Index) method where positive numbers tend to mean wet, lift between -1 to 1 is neutral, and increasingly negative numbers tend to mean dry. It is known that in 2040 January was known that there would be no drought on Sumbawa Island with values ranging from -1 to 2. While in August of 2040, the potential for drought disaster should be watched out. This is because in this month the drought index value ranges from -2.5 to - 2. The potential for drought itself is known to increase in August 5 years until 2040 when compared with 5-year data, 2025 and 2030 in August in the Bima region. Meanwhile, based on time series analysis, it is estimated that there will be some extreme dry conditions, in August 2022, 2024, 2028, 2030, and 2033. Knowing these extreme conditions, it is hoped that this will become the basis for regional planning systems, starting from planning infrastructure and social systems to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
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