This paper uses multivariate logistic regressions to explore: (1) potential socio-economic, cultural, psychological and political determinants of AIDS conspiracy beliefs among young adults in Cape Town; and (2) whether these beliefs matter for unsafe sex. Membership of a religious organisation reduced the odds of believing AIDS origin conspiracy theories by more than a third, whereas serious psychological distress more than doubled it and belief in witchcraft tripled the odds among Africans. Political factors mattered, but in ways that differed by gender. Tertiary education and relatively high household income reduced the odds of believing AIDS conspiracies for African women (but not men) and trust in President Mbeki's health minister (relative to her successor) increased the odds sevenfold for African men (but not women). Never having heard of the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC), the pro-science activist group that opposed Mbeki on AIDS, tripled the odds of believing AIDS conspiracies for African women (but not men). Controlling for demographic, attitudinal and relationship variables, the odds of using a condom were halved amongst female African AIDS conspiracy believers, whereas for African men, never having heard of TAC and holding AIDS denialist beliefs were the key determinants of unsafe sex.
BACKGROUND: In 1998 we estimated that 34/million infectious window period donations were entering the blood supply at the South African National Blood Service. Selective use of donations based on donor race-ethnicity reduced this risk to 26/million donations but was deemed unethical. Consequently, in 2005 South African National Blood Service eliminated race-ethnicitybased collection policies and implemented individual-donation nucleic acid testing (ID-NAT). We describe the change in donor base demographics, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) detection rates, and transfusion-transmissible HIV risk. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS:In ten years 7.7 million donations were tested for anti-HIV and HIV RNA. Number of donations, HIV prevalence, ID-NAT yield rate, serology yield rate and residual transfusion-transmissible HIV risk were analyzed by donor type, race-ethnicity, age, and sex. Multiple regression analysis was performed to investigate the determinants of HIV-positive and nucleic acid testing yield donations. RESULTS:The combined strategy of increasing donations from black donors and implementing ID-NAT increased the proportion of donations from black donors from 6% in 2005 to 30% in 2015 (p < 0.00001), and reduced the transfusion-transmissible risk from 24 to 13 per million transfusions. ID-NAT interdicted 481 (1:16,100) seronegative window period donations, while one transfusiontransmissible case (0.13 per million) was documented. Race-ethnicity and donor type were highly significant predictors of HIV positivity, with adjusted odds ratio for first-time donors of 12.5 (95% confidence interval, 11.9-13.1) and for black race-ethnicity of 31.1 (95% confidence interval, 28.9-33.4). The proportion of serology yields among HIV-infected donors increased from 0.27% to 2.4%. CONCLUSION: ID-NAT enabled the South African NationalBlood Service to increase the number of donations from black donors fivefold while enhancing the safety of the blood supply.A ccording to a "between-census" community survey done in 2016 that sampled 1.3 million households of the 56 million people living in South Africa, approximately 7.06 million people are human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive, providing an estimated adult HIV prevalence and incidence of 18% and 0.91 per 100 person-years, respectively. 1 In this environment, the South African National Blood Service (SANBS) collects approximately 800,000 blood donations annually from voluntary nonremunerated blood donors, which are processed into blood components that are provided to approximately 400,000 patients each year. ABBREVIATIONS: ART = antiretroviral therapy; FT = first-time; ID-NAT = individual donation nucleic acid testing; MID 50 = 50% minimum infectious dose; p24Ag = p24 antigen; SANBS = South African National Blood Service; TT = transfusion-transmitted; WP = window period.
In 2011 the Incidence Assay Critical Path Working Group reviewed the current state of HIV incidence assays and helped to determine a critical path to the introduction of an HIV incidence assay. At that time the Consortium for Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA) was formed to spur progress and raise standards among assay developers, scientists and laboratories involved in HIV incidence measurement and to structure and conduct a direct independent comparative evaluation of the performance of 10 existing HIV incidence assays, to be considered singly and in combinations as recent infection test algorithms. In this paper we report on a new framework for HIV incidence assay evaluation that has emerged from this effort over the past 5 years, which includes a preliminary target product profile for an incidence assay, a consensus around key performance metrics along with analytical tools and deployment of a standardized approach for incidence assay evaluation. The specimen panels for this evaluation have been collected in large volumes, characterized using a novel approach for infection dating rules and assembled into panels designed to assess the impact of important sources of measurement error with incidence assays such as viral subtype, elite host control of viraemia and antiretroviral treatment. We present the specific rationale for several of these innovations, and discuss important resources for assay developers and researchers that have recently become available. Finally, we summarize the key remaining steps on the path to development and implementation of reliable assays for monitoring HIV incidence at a population level.
Background: Population-level estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity (seroprevalence) is a crucial epidemiological indicator for tracking the Covid-19 epidemic. Such data are in short supply, both internationally and in South Africa. The South African blood services (the South African National Blood Service, SANBS and the Western Cape Blood Service, WCBS) are coordinating a nationally representative survey of blood donors, which it is hoped can become a cost-effective surveillance method with validity for community-level seroprevalence estimation.Methods: Leveraging existing arrangements, SANBS human research ethics committee permission was obtained to test blood donations collected on predefined days (7th, 10th ,12th ,15th ,20th ,23th and 25th January) for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, using the Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay on the cobas e411 platform currently available in the blood services’ donation testing laboratories. Using standard methods, prevalence analysis was done by province, age and race, allowing age to be regarded as either a continuous or categorical variable. Testing was performed in the Eastern Cape (EC), Free State (FS), KwaZulu Natal (ZN) and Northern Cape (NC) provinces.Results: We report on data from 4858 donors - 1457 in EC; 463 in NC; 831 in FS and 2107 in ZN. Prevalence varied substantially across race groups and between provinces, with seroprevalence among Black donors consistently several times higher than among White donors, and the other main population groups (Coloured and Asian) not consistently represented in all provinces. There is no clear evidence that seroprevalence among donors varies by age. Weighted net estimates of prevalence (in the core age range 15-69) by province (compared with official clinically-confirmed COVID-19 case rates in mid-January 2021) are: EC-63%(2.8%), NC-32%(2.2%), FS-46%(2.4%), and ZN-52%(2.4%).Conclusions: Our study demonstrates substantial differences in dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 infection between different race groups, most likely explained by historically based differences in socio-economic status and housing conditions. As has been seen in other areas, even such high seroprevalence does not guarantee population-level immunity against new outbreaks – probably due to viral evolution and waning of antibody neutralization. Despite its limitations, notably a ‘healthy donor’ effect, it seems plausible that these estimates are reasonably generalisable to actual population level anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, but should be further verified.
Background: Antibody response duration following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection tends to be variable and depends on severity of disease and method of detection. Study design and methods: COVID-19 convalescent plasma from 18 donors was collected longitudinally for a maximum of 63-129 days following resolution of symptoms. All the samples were initially screened by the Ortho total Ig test to confirm positivity and subsequently tested with seven additional direct sandwich or indirect binding assays (Ortho, Roche, Abbott, Broad Institute) directed against a variety of antigen targets (S1, receptor binding domain, and nucleocapsid [NC]), along with two neutralization assays (Broad Institute live virus PRNT and Vitalant Research Institute [VRI] Pseudovirus reporter viral particle neutralization [RVPN]).Results: The direct detection assays (Ortho total Ig total and Roche total Ig) showed increasing levels of antibodies over the time period, in contrast to the indirect IgG assays that showed a decline. Neutralization assays also demonstrated declining responses; the VRI RVPN pseudovirus had a greater rate of decline than the Broad PRNT live virus assay.
BackgroundIt is frequently of epidemiological and/or clinical interest to estimate the date of HIV infection or time-since-infection of individuals. Yet, for over 15 years, the only widely-referenced infection dating algorithm that utilises diagnostic testing data to estimate time-since-infection has been the ‘Fiebig staging’ system. This defines a number of stages of early HIV infection through various standard combinations of contemporaneous discordant diagnostic results using tests of different sensitivity. To develop a new, more nuanced infection dating algorithm, we generalised the Fiebig approach to accommodate positive and negative diagnostic results generated on the same or different dates, and arbitrary current or future tests – as long as the test sensitivity is known. For this purpose, test sensitivity is the probability of a positive result as a function of time since infection.MethodsThe present work outlines the analytical framework for infection date estimation using subject-level diagnostic testing histories, and data on test sensitivity. We introduce a publicly-available online HIV infection dating tool that implements this estimation method, bringing together 1) curatorship of HIV test performance data, and 2) infection date estimation functionality, to calculate plausible intervals within which infection likely became detectable for each individual. The midpoints of these intervals are interpreted as infection time ‘point estimates’ and referred to as Estimated Dates of Detectable Infection (EDDIs). The tool is designed for easy bulk processing of information (as may be appropriate for research studies) but can also be used for individual patients (such as in clinical practice).ResultsIn many settings, including most research studies, detailed diagnostic testing data are routinely recorded, and can provide reasonably precise estimates of the timing of HIV infection. We present a simple logic to the interpretation of diagnostic testing histories into infection time estimates, either as a point estimate (EDDI) or an interval (earliest plausible to latest plausible dates of detectable infection), along with a publicly-accessible online tool that supports wide application of this logic.ConclusionsThis tool, available at https://tools.incidence-estimation.org/idt/, is readily updatable as test technology evolves, given the simple architecture of the system and its nature as an open source project.
Dengue virus (DENV) infections elicit antibody responses to the non-structural protein 1 (NS1) that are associated with protection against disease. However, the antibody isotypes and subclasses involved, and their kinetics have not been extensively studied. We characterized the antibody responses to DENV NS1 by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in a longitudinal cohort of 266 confirmed dengue cases in Recife, Northeast Brazil. Samples were collected during the febrile phase and up to over 3 years after onset of symptoms. The antibodies investigated [IgA, IgM, total IgG (all subclasses measured together) and each subclass (IgG2, IgG3 and IgG4) measured separately] had distinct kinetic profiles following primary or secondary DENV infections. Of interest, most of these antibodies were consistently detected greater than 6 months after onset of symptoms, except for IgG3. Anti-dengue NS1-specific IgG was consistently detected from the acute phase to beyond 3 years after symptom onset. In contrast, anti-dengue NS1-specific IgG3 was detected within the first week, peaked at week 2-3, and disappeared within 4-6 months after onset of symptoms. The mean duration of the IgG3 positive signal was 149 days (ranging from 126 to 172 days). In conclusion, anti-dengue NS1-specific IgG and IgG3 are potential biomarkers of long-term and recent (less than 6 months) DENV infections, respectively.
Background: Accurately identifying individuals who are on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important to determine ART coverage and proportion on ART who are virally suppressed. ART is also included in recent infection testing algorithms used to estimate incidence. We compared estimates of ART coverage, viral load suppression rates and HIV incidence using ART self-report and detection of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs and we identified factors associated with discordance between the methods.
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