AIDS Conspiracy Beliefs and Unsafe Sex in Cape Town

Abstract

This paper uses multivariate logistic regressions to explore: (1) potential socio-economic, cultural, psychological and political determinants of AIDS conspiracy beliefs among young adults in Cape Town; and (2) whether these beliefs matter for unsafe sex. Membership of a religious organisation reduced the odds of believing AIDS origin conspiracy theories by more than a third, whereas serious psychological distress more than doubled it and belief in witchcraft tripled the odds among Africans. Political factors mattered, but in ways that differed by gender. Tertiary education and relatively high household income reduced the odds of believing AIDS conspiracies for African women (but not men) and trust in President Mbeki's health minister (relative to her successor) increased the odds sevenfold for African men (but not women). Never having heard of the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC), the pro-science activist group that opposed Mbeki on AIDS, tripled the odds of believing AIDS conspiracies for African women (but not men). Controlling for demographic, attitudinal and relationship variables, the odds of using a condom were halved amongst female African AIDS conspiracy believers, whereas for African men, never having heard of TAC and holding AIDS denialist beliefs were the key determinants of unsafe sex.

Civil Society Leadership in the Struggle for Aids Treatment in South Africa and Uganda

“…propensity to migrate). As in Grebe and Nattrass (2012), multivariate logistic regressions were used to predict AIDS conspiracy beliefs and condom use behaviour. The first series of models (models 1-5, reported in tables 4.2 and 4.3 are regressions on a binary dependent variable with value 1 if the respondent scored more than 9 on an AIDS conspiracy belief index generated by summing values of responses to three statements about the man-made origins of AIDS (each on a 5-point Likert scale with U n i v e r s i t y o f C a p e T o w n 1=strongly disagree and 5=strongly agree).…”

“…Drawing on and extending joint research with Nicoli Nattrass (Grebe and Nattrass, 2012), the chapter uses multivariate logistic regression (in a sample of young adults in Cape Town, collected as the fifth wave of the Cape Area Panel Study) to explore the potential impact of contact with TAC (together with other socioeconomic, cultural, psychological and political determinants) on conspiracy beliefs about the origins of AIDS. Further, it investigates the impact of both AIDS conspiracy beliefs and contact with TAC on condom use.…”

“…The Nevertheless, it is to be expected that AIDS denialist arguments and AIDS conspiracy theories, vigorously promoted by a number of powerful political leaders, would have found some purchase in the broader population, especially among those whose political attitudes rendered them a 'natural constituency' for Mbeki. We attempted to capture this dimension in the regression analysis in Grebe and Nattrass (2012) by including a variable indicating that a respondent expressed greater trust in Tshabalala-Msimang on HIV/AIDS than in her successor Barbara Hogan. …”

“…Since Cape Town was the first city in which TAC built its movement, and the Khayelitsha township outside Cape Town probably remains its strongest support base (it was also the site of the TAC ally MSF's antiretroviral treatment clinic around which much of the community mobilisation and treatment education activities took place), it is appropriate to evaluate the organisation's impact in this community. The analyses and arguments in this chapter draw on a joint paper with Nicoli Nattrass (Grebe and Nattrass, 2012), although it significantly extends them and shifts the focus to the impact of TAC.…”

“…The analyses take the form of multivariate logistic regressions, first on AIDS conspiracy beliefs and then on reported condom use at the most recent sexual encounter. In each case, a series of models are first presented that are stratified on race and gender (like in Grebe and Nattrass, 2012) and then with a number of interaction terms of race and gender on other variables (not previously reported) U n i v e r s i t y o f C a p e T o w n in order to elucidate the substantial race and gender differences observed in the influence of measures on the dependent variables. A number of bivariate analyses are also reported.…”