[1] On 15 May 2005, a huge interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) was observed near Earth. It triggered one of the most intense geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 23 (Dst peak = À263 nT). This structure has been associated with the two-ribbon flare, filament eruption, and coronal mass ejection originating in active region 10759 (NOAA number). We analyze here the sequence of events, from solar wind measurements (at 1 AU) and back to the Sun, to understand the origin and evolution of this geoeffective ICME. From a detailed observational study of in situ magnetic field observations and plasma parameters in the interplanetary (IP) medium and the use of appropriate models we propose an alternative interpretation of the IP observations, different to those discussed in previous studies. In our view, the IP structure is formed by two extremely close consecutive magnetic clouds (MCs) that preserve their identity during their propagation through the interplanetary medium. Consequently, we identify two solar events in Ha and EUV which occurred in the source region of the MCs. The timing between solar and IP events, as well as the orientation of the MC axes and their associated solar arcades are in good agreement. Additionally, interplanetary radio type II observations allow the tracking of the multiple structures through inner heliosphere and pin down the interaction region to be located midway between the Sun and the Earth. The chain of observations from the photosphere to interplanetary space is in agreement with this scenario. Our analysis allows the detection of the solar sources of the transients and explains the extremely fast changes of the solar wind due to the transport of two attached (though nonmerging) MCs which affect the magnetosphere.

In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the ''Carrington-like'' event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a) the global Dst or SYM-H, as indices based on averaging, missed the largest geomagnetic disturbance in the 29 October 2003 event and might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large spike in the horizontal component (H) of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT); (b) the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but field-aligned currents (FACs); and (c) the very local signatures of the H-spike imply that a Carrington-like event can occur more often than expected.

Abstract. What one commonly considers for reproducing the recovery phase of magnetosphere, as seen by the Dst index, is exponential function. However, the magnetosphere recovers faster in the first hours than in the late recovery phase.

[1] The recovery phase of the largest storms ever recorded has been studied. These events provide an extraordinary opportunity for two goals: (1) to validate the hyperbolic model by Aguado et al. (2010) for the recovery phase after disturbances as severe as the Carrington event or that related to the Hydro-Quebec blackout in March 1989, and (2) to check whether the linear relationship between the recovery time and the intensity of the storm still complies. Our results reveal the high accuracy of the hyperbolic decay function to reproduce the recovery phase of the magnetosphere after an extreme storm. Moreover, the characteristic time that takes the magnetosphere to recover depends in an exponential way on the intensity of the storm, as indicated by the relationship between the two parameters involved in the hyperbolic decay. This exponential function can be approached by a linear function when the severity of the storm diminishes.

[1] The probability for a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) to be geoeffective is assumed to be higher the closer the CME launch site is located to the solar central meridian. However, events far from the central meridian may produce severe geomagnetic storms, like the case in April 2000. In this work, we study the possible geoeffectiveness of full halo CMEs with the source region situated at solar limb. For this task, we select all limb full halo (LFH) CMEs that occurred during solar cycle 23, and we search for signatures of geoeffectiveness between 1 and 5 days after the first appearance of each CME in the LASCO C2 field of view. When signatures of geomagnetic activity are observed in the selected time window, interplanetary data are carefully analyzed in order to look for the cause of the geomagnetic disturbance. Finally, a possible association between geoeffective interplanetary signatures and every LFH CME in solar cycle 23 is checked in order to decide on the CME's geoeffectiveness. After a detailed analysis of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic data, we conclude that of the 25 investigated events, there are only four geoeffective LFH CMEs, all coming from the west limb. The geoeffectiveness of these events seems to be moderate, turning to intense in two of them as a result of cumulative effects from previous mass ejections. We conclude that ejections from solar locations close to the west limb should be considered in space weather, at least as sources of moderate disturbances.

Extreme geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards for technology-dependent society. Geomagnetic field disturbances can disrupt the operation of critical infrastructures relying on space-based assets, and can also result in terrestrial effects, such as the Quebec electrical disruption in 1989. Forecasting potential hazards is a matter of high priority, but considering large flares as the only criterion for early-warning systems has demonstrated to release a large amount of false alarms and misses. Moreover, the quantification of the severity of the geomagnetic disturbance at the terrestrial surface using indices as Dst cannot be considered as the best approach to give account of the damage in utilities. High temporal resolution local indices come out as a possible solution to this issue, as disturbances recorded at the terrestrial surface differ largely both in latitude and longitude. The recovery phase of extreme storms presents also some peculiar features which make it different from other less intense storms. This paper goes through all these issues related to extreme storms by analysing a few events, highlighting the March 1989 storm, related to the Quebec blackout, and the October 2003 event, when several transformers burnt out in South Africa.

Abstract. We analyze two magnetic clouds (MCs) observed in different points of the heliosphere. The main aim of the present study is to provide a link between the different aspects of this phenomenon, starting with information on the origins of the MCs at the Sun and following by the analysis of in-situ observations at 1AU and at Ulysses. The candidate source regions were identified in SOHO/EIT and SOHO/MDI observations. They were correlated with H-α images that were obtained from ground-based observatories. Hints on the internal magnetic field configuration of the associated coronal mass ejections are obtained from LASCO C2 images. In interplanetary space, magnetic and plasma moments of the distribution function of plasma species (ACE/Ulysses) were analyzed together with information on the plasma composition, and the results were compared between both spacecraft in order to understand how these structures interact and evolve in their cruise from the Sun to 5 AU. Additionally, estimates of global magnitudes of magnetic fluxes and helicity were obtained from magnetic field models applied to the data in interplanetary space. We have found that these magnetic characteristics were well kept from their solar source, up to 5 AU where Ulysses provided valuable information which, together with that obtained from ACE, can help to reinforce the correct matching of solar events and their interplanetary counterparts.

Abstract. Southward interplanetary magnetic fields are considered traces of geoeffectiveness since they are a main agent of magnetic reconnection of solar wind and magnetosphere. The first part of this work revises the ability to forecast intense geomagnetic activity using different procedures available in the literature. The study shows that current methods do not succeed in making confident predictions. This fact led us to develop a new forecasting procedure, which provides trustworthy results in predicting large variations of D st index over a sample of 10 years of observations and is based on the value B z only. The proposed forecasting method appears as a worthy tool for space weather purposes because it is not affected by the lack of solar wind plasma data, which usually occurs during severe geomagnetic activity. Moreover, the results obtained guide us to provide a new interpretation of the physical mechanisms involved in the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere using Faraday's law.