Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas (EBBA1) and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas (EBBA2). Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km/year towards the north (5% Northeast, 45% North, and 40% Northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km/year. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to “climate debt. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

The altitudinal distribution, breeding density and population size of Tengmalm’s Owl Aegolius funereus was studied in Kopaonik National Park (central Serbia) during the 2011 and 2012 breeding seasons. The size of the study area was 24 km2. The survey method applied was a line transect in combination with stop points and playback of territorial male call. During the two-year research project, 37 territories were located. In Kopaonik National Park, Tengmalm’s Owl males inhabit Norway Spruce Picea abies, mixed Norway Spruce-Silver Fir Abies alba and Norway Spruce-European Beech Fagus sylvatica forests in the altitudinal belt stretching between 1,367 and 1,689 m a.s.l. The breeding density in the studied area was 8.3 territories/10 km2 in 2011 and 7.1 territories/10 km2 in 2012. Total population estimate of Tengmalm’s Owl in Kopaonik National Park is substantially higher than previously assumed, its 42-49 breeding territories making it currently the most important breeding site in Serbia.

Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by global change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, elevation, and temperature gradients, can influence a community's ability to shift. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in global change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980's and their nearest compositional equivalent in the 2010’s and modelled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coasts and elevation having the strongest influence. Combining ecological barriers and community shift projections can identify ecological corridors that facilitate shifts of species and communities under global change.

Studying current and future geographic distribution is essential for conserving endangered species such as the Boreal Owl and Eurasian Pygmy Owl. The main aim of this study was to determine the potential distribution of both species in the Balkan Peninsula by using spatial distribution models (SDMs) in MaxEnt. We used data from field surveys, the scientific and grey literature, and an online database. We considered the current time and two future periods, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. For future periods, we included different climate scenarios (SSP 126, 245, 370, and 585) in studying the potential geographic distribution of both species. We identified two types of potential future refugia for species: in situ and ex situ. Our study shows the highly suitable area for the Boreal Owl increased during the 2041–2060 period compared with the current area in all scenarios, except in SSP 585. However, during the 2061–2080 period, the highly suitable areas contracted. For the Eurasian Pygmy Owl, highly suitable areas decreased during 2041–2060, but during the 2061–2080 period, it was larger than the current area. Our study is of importance for conservation and preserving areas of potential distribution and refugia for Boreal and Eurasian Pygmy Owls in the face of climate change.

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