Environmental Niche Modelling Predicts a Contraction in the Potential Distribution of Two Boreal Owl Species under Different Climate Scenarios

Abstract

Studying current and future geographic distribution is essential for conserving endangered species such as the Boreal Owl and Eurasian Pygmy Owl. The main aim of this study was to determine the potential distribution of both species in the Balkan Peninsula by using spatial distribution models (SDMs) in MaxEnt. We used data from field surveys, the scientific and grey literature, and an online database. We considered the current time and two future periods, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. For future periods, we included different climate scenarios (SSP 126, 245, 370, and 585) in studying the potential geographic distribution of both species. We identified two types of potential future refugia for species: in situ and ex situ. Our study shows the highly suitable area for the Boreal Owl increased during the 2041–2060 period compared with the current area in all scenarios, except in SSP 585. However, during the 2061–2080 period, the highly suitable areas contracted. For the Eurasian Pygmy Owl, highly suitable areas decreased during 2041–2060, but during the 2061–2080 period, it was larger than the current area. Our study is of importance for conservation and preserving areas of potential distribution and refugia for Boreal and Eurasian Pygmy Owls in the face of climate change.

Spatial distribution of insular cliff vegetation and future scenarios in a climate change perspective

“…This is not surprising, as the main climatic variables of the ENM (temperature and precipitation) will get worse due to the increase in atmospheric CO 2 (increase in temperature and reduction in precipitation) in all possible scenarios of climate change. This prediction is common in other ENM studies focused on plants (Williams et al, 2009) and even animals (Cerman et al, 2022). Indeed, Guardiola & Sáez (2023) found a similar pattern for all endemic vegetation of the Balearic archipelago.…”

An Assessment of the Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of the Glacial Relict Woodpecker Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus

“…This implies that anything below the specified threshold indicates an unsuitable habitat, whereas anything above this value can be considered a suitable habitat [99]. Following Cerman et al [106] and Zhu et al [107], suitable habitats were further divided into three categories: poorly suitable habitat (0.25758-0.65758), moderately suitable habitat (0.65758-0.85758), and highly suitable habitat (0.85758-1).…”

Owls’ Responses to Environmental Challenges

“…This Special Issue focuses on the adaptability of owls to various kinds of environmental changes, including habitat alterations and climate change [ 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 ]. Both direct and indirect effects of climate change on the habitat and food availability of owl populations are considered.…”

“…Both direct and indirect effects of climate change on the habitat and food availability of owl populations are considered. Various populations of the Tawny Owl Strix aluco [ 4 , 7 , 8 ] as well as some other species of owls from Europe [ 5 , 6 , 9 ] and North America [ 10 ] serve as examples.…”

“…Knowledge of their current and future geographic distributions is essential for conserving endangered species. Spatial distribution models show that, compared with the current areas, areas highly suitable for the Boreal Owl Aegolius funereus with increase in the Balkan Peninsula in 2041–2060 [ 9 ]. However, during the next 20 years, the amount of highly suitable areas will reduce.…”