To assist in medical counseling, we present a method to estimate the chance that a woman with given age and risk factors will develop breast cancer over a specified interval. The risk factors used were age at menarche, age at first live birth, number of previous biopsies, and number of first-degree relatives with breast cancer. A model of relative risks for various combinations of these factors was developed from case-control data from the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP). The model allowed for the fact that relative risks associated with previous breast biopsies were smaller for women aged 50 or more than for younger women. Thus, the proportional hazards models for those under age 50 and for those of age 50 or more. The baseline age-specific hazard rate, which is the rate for a patient without identified risk factors, is computed as the product of the observed age-specific composite hazard rate times the quantity 1 minus the attributable risk. We calculated individualized breast cancer probabilities from information on relative risks and the baseline hazard rate. These calculations take competing risks and the interval of risk into account. Our data were derived from women who participated in the BCDDP and who tended to return for periodic examinations. For this reason, the risk projections given are probably most reliable for counseling women who plan to be examined about once a year.

These findings indicate that celecoxib is an effective agent for the prevention of colorectal adenomas but, because of potential cardiovascular events, cannot be routinely recommended for this indication. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00005094 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).

Adopting a diet that is low in fat and high in fiber, fruits, and vegetables does not influence the risk of recurrence of colorectal adenomas.

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Results suggest a possible mechanism by which consumption of one or two alcoholic drinks per day by postmenopausal women could increase their risk of breast cancer.

The authors studied the relation between benign breast disease and subsequent breast cancer in 16,692 women with biopsy-diagnosed benign breast disease who had participated in the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project throughout the United States. Women were classified into one of five benign breast disease categories: atypical hyperplasia, proliferative disease without atypia, nonproliferative disease, fibroadenoma, and other benign breast disease. A total of 485 incident cases of breast cancer were identified in the women from August 1973 to February 1986 after a median follow-up period of 8.3 years from the diagnosis of benign breast disease. Age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for benign breast disease types stratified by family history and calcification status. Relative risk (RR) estimates of breast cancer for women in the five benign breast disease categories, compared with the screened women who did not develop recognizable breast disease (normal subjects), were computed using the proportional hazards model. Results indicated that risk was associated with the degree of epithelial atypia. Over all age groups, women with nonproliferative disease, proliferative disease without atypia, and atypical hyperplasia displayed progressively increasing risks of 1.5, 1.9, and 3.0, respectively, compared with normal subjects, with 95% confidence intervals (CI) exceeding unity. Particularly high risk was seen among women under age 46 years with atypical hyperplasia (RR = 5.7, 95% CI 3.0-10.6). Women with fibroadenoma as the only indication of their benign breast disease had a relative risk of 1.7, with a lower 95% confidence limit of 1.0. No increased risk was seen for women with other benign breast disease. Positive family history (RR = 1.8) and calcification (RR = 1.2) significantly increased a woman's risk proportionately over the risk associated with each benign breast disease subtype. The authors conclude that the risk of developing breast cancer varies by category of benign breast disease and is directly related to the degree of epithelial atypia.

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