Most marine populations are thought to be well connected via long-distance dispersal of larval stages. Eulerian and Lagrangian flow models, coupled with linear mortality estimates, were used to examine this assumption. The findings show that when simple advection models are used, larval exchange rates may be overestimated; such simplistic models fail to account for a decrease of up to nine orders of magnitude in larval concentrations resulting from diffusion and mortality. The alternative process of larval retention near local populations is shown to exist and may be of great importance in the maintenance of marine population structure and management of coastal marine resources.

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Population genetics is a powerful tool for measuring important larval connections between marine populations [1-4]. Similarly, oceanographic models based on environmental data can simulate particle movements in ocean currents and make quantitative estimates of larval connections between populations possible [5-9]. However, these two powerful approaches have remained disconnected because no general models currently provide a means of directly comparing dispersal predictions with empirical genetic data (except, see [10]). In addition, previous genetic models have considered relatively simple dispersal scenarios that are often unrealistic for marine larvae [11-15], and recent landscape genetic models have yet to be applied in a marine context [16-20]. We have developed a genetic model that uses connectivity estimates from oceanographic models to predict genetic patterns resulting from larval dispersal in a Caribbean coral. We then compare the predictions to empirical data for threatened staghorn corals. Our coupled oceanographic-genetic model predicts many of the patterns observed in this and other empirical datasets; such patterns include the isolation of the Bahamas and an east-west divergence near Puerto Rico [3, 21-23]. This new approach provides both a valuable tool for predicting genetic structure in marine populations and a means of explicitly testing these predictions with empirical data.

Data collected in 1988–1989, as part of the South Atlantic Ventilation Experiment, have been combined with the historical database to study the circulation and water mass variability of the abyssal water in the Argentine Basin. A map of potential temperature at 4000 m used as an indication of geostrophic shear defines a south and western intensified crescent‐shaped abyssal recirculation. Within this recirculation, and its northward extension to the Brazil Basin, Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) properties have undergone two modifications during the 1980s: (1) The water mass cooled (0.05°C) and freshened (0.008 in salinity ratio) on surfaces of constant density. (2) The densest layer of AABW was altered to less dense water through mixing or advection out of the study area. This water mass change does not appear to have affected the flow pattern. Data collected in 1983 and 1988 to the north in the Brazil Basin show penetration of the freshwater mass in the deep western boundary current to between 18°S and 10°S, indicating very rapid propagation of the anomaly from the Argentine Basin into the Brazil Basin as a deep western boundary current. It is suggested that open ocean convective events within the Weddell Sea contributed to the change in AABW documented here.

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[1] The exchange between the Persian (Arabian) Gulf and the Indian Ocean is investigated using hydrographic and moored acoustic Doppler current profiler data from the Straits of Hormuz during the period December 1996 to March 1998. The moored time series records show a relatively steady deep outflow through the strait from 40 m to the bottom with a mean speed of approximately 20 cm/s. A variable flow is found in the upper layer with frequent reversals on timescales of several days to weeks. The annual mean flow in the near-surface layer is found to be northeastward (out of the Persian Gulf) in the southern part of the strait, suggesting a mean horizontal exchange with the Indian Ocean that is superimposed on the vertical overturning exchange driven by evaporation over the gulf. The salinity of the deep outflow varies from 39.3 to 40.8 psu with highest outflow salinities occurring in the winter months (December-March). The annual mean deep outflow through the strait is estimated to be 0.15 ± 0.03 Sv. Calculation of the associated heat and freshwater fluxes through the strait yields estimates for the annual heat loss over the surface of the gulf of À7 ± 4 W/m 2 and an annual water loss (E-P-R) of 1.68 ± 0.39 m/yr. These values are shown to be in relatively good agreement with climatological surface fluxes derived from the Southampton Oceanography Centre global flux climatology after known regional biases in the radiative budget are taken into account.

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Pelagic plant life draws its principal supply of dissolved or undissolved nitrogen either from the coasts or from localities where warm and cold currents meet." J. Hjort "Where cold and warm currents meet at the surface of the ocean there is a rise of temperature for the animals of the cold current and a fall of temperature for the animals of the warm current, which results in a plentiful destruction of organisms." Sir John Murray "We are well acquainted with the stream in our pursuit of whales, which keep to the sides of it but are not met within it."