During 2020, it can already be confirmed with confidence that the negative socioeconomic expectations and trends of both covid-19 and the military events in Artsakh had a reliable and expected multifactorial impact on the development of employment and the labor market in the Republic of Armenia. Firstly, the economy reacted unfavorably to the two events with certain restraints, negative expectations were formed, then direct and actual impacts on socio-economic indicators were recorded. In parallel with the above expectations and statistical trends, the Government of the Republic of Armenia has implemented and is currently launching new programs of state support for employment and the labor market, some changes in the policy of program support.
Issues in the field of employment basically predetermine both the current trends in the economic development of any country and long-term expectations. Therefore, the analysis of employment indicators and their qualitative and quantitative assessment form sufficient practical grounds for an objective and scientific solution to the problems of economic activity of the population. In this article, the indicators characterizing the employment market of the territorial units of the Republic of Armenia, including the city of Yerevan, were analyzed, using econometric models. And the relationship and interaction between macroeconomic indicators and employment indicators were evaluated. The results of the analysis show that, according to territorial units, both employment indicators and other macroeconomic indicators in Armenia are highly polarized, and positive trends in economic development are manifested mainly in Yerevan and Syunik regions. The results of econometric models "economic growth - reduction of unemployment", in turn, reveal the gap between the capital and the regions in terms of reducing unemployment.
Purpose: The purpose of this article is to analyze and forecast the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market of Armenia. Theoretical framework: The theoretical framework of the article draws upon several key concepts relevant to labor market analysis. It incorporates elements from labor economics, macroeconomics, and crisis management literature to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of the COVID-19. Design/methodology/approach: To analyze and predict the dynamics of labor market indicators, this study uses statistical analysis and modelling tools, including fundamental and technical analysis. Technical analysis involves components of the time series, such as trend, seasonality, dummy variables, cyclical components, and random components. Findings: The study revealed that labor market of Armenia has been severely affected by the COVID-19. The government's implementation of restrictions aimed at containing the spread of the virus has led to significant job losses. The existing labor market policies and support programs in place before the pandemic proved inadequate in addressing the challenges posed by the crisis. Research, Practical & Social implications: The article offers empirical evidence and forecasting insights that can deepen understanding of the consequences of the pandemic on employment, sectoral dynamics, and labor market resilience. It provides policymakers with valuable insights into the specific challenges faced by the labor market due to the pandemic. Originality/value: Although there are analyses of how COVID-19 shocked the labor markets, the significance of this research is emphasized by its comparative analysis of the labor markets of countries on various levels of development.
This article aimed to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Armenia"s foreign trade. The research problem was to analyze how the conflict influenced Armenia"s export and import patterns regarding geographical directions and product structure. The objectives were to examine the changes in trade turnover and identify shifts in geographical trade directions and trade structure. The study employed various statistical analysis tools, including dynamic series indicators, structural analysis, time series modeling, trend and moving average approximation, and extrapolation. Through these methods, the study evaluated the effects of the conflict on Armenia"s foreign trade. The key results indicated a positive impact of the conflict on trade turnover, with increased trade activity in various geographical directions. Export diversification was also observed as a result of the conflict. Notably, re-export played a significant role in the unprecedented growth of Armenia"s trade turnover during this period. In conclusion, the findings suggest that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had a discernible influence on Armenia"s foreign trade, leading to changes in trade patterns and increased trade activity. The study highlights the importance of the re-exports role in analyzing trade dynamics.
International trade contributes to the development of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as a regional integration alliance and, as stated by classical economists, plays a decisive role in the economic growth of any country (region). Most studies of EAEU international trade flow analysis focus on the trade component. The present paper attempts to display the connection between EAEU trade and macroeconomic indicators. The applied technical methods of statistical analysis have enabled the researchers to evaluate SARIMA models for export and import, and forecast EAEU 2020 trade dynamics based on these models. Then keeping in mind, the idea that the basis of the constructed model is the assumption that the series will maintain its trend, the actual value was simply subtracted from the forecast value to measure the 2020 shock effect. Due to the fundamental methods of statistical analysis the EAEU member countries’ trade and macroeconomic indicators elasticity ratios have been calculated, which are likely to measure the impact rate and become new empirical knowledge in assessing the interaction of trade turnover and the economic growth of the countries.
Macroeconomic indicators are the parameters of a country's economic passport due to the fact that one aggregated unit (one digit) manages to characterize an entire subsector of the economy. The purpose of the article is to identify the areas of interdependence of the macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Armenia, to test hypotheses about the main macroeconomic links for the Republic of Armenia. The article uses statistical modeling and analysis tools: analysis of dynamics by chain and basic indicators, analysis by average dynamics indicators, structural analysis, correlation and regression analysis. The results of the analysis indicate that not all the provisions common in the economic literature namely, export-economic growth, import-economic growth, unemployment rate-inflation (Phillips curve) can be applied in the case of RA. Net exports were considered as an effective indicator of the external sector, and the relationship between the other indicators of the corresponding "golden quadrilateral" was calculated. Calculations have shown that net exports have no significant or interpreted from the point of view of economic literature links with any of the variables of the "golden quadrangle". It also turned out that RA imports are quite sensitive to changes in income. Unemployment rate-dependence of GDP: Ou-Ken's law also applies in the case of RA. Increasing the level of digitalization of the economy is a significant factor in the economic growth of the Republic of Armenia
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