Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 on the Labor Market of Armenia: A Forcasting Study

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to analyze and forecast the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market of Armenia. Theoretical framework: The theoretical framework of the article draws upon several key concepts relevant to labor market analysis. It incorporates elements from labor economics, macroeconomics, and crisis management literature to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of the COVID-19. Design/methodology/approach: To analyze and predict the dynamics of labor market indicators, this study uses statistical analysis and modelling tools, including fundamental and technical analysis. Technical analysis involves components of the time series, such as trend, seasonality, dummy variables, cyclical components, and random components. Findings: The study revealed that labor market of Armenia has been severely affected by the COVID-19. The government's implementation of restrictions aimed at containing the spread of the virus has led to significant job losses. The existing labor market policies and support programs in place before the pandemic proved inadequate in addressing the challenges posed by the crisis. Research, Practical & Social implications: The article offers empirical evidence and forecasting insights that can deepen understanding of the consequences of the pandemic on employment, sectoral dynamics, and labor market resilience. It provides policymakers with valuable insights into the specific challenges faced by the labor market due to the pandemic. Originality/value: Although there are analyses of how COVID-19 shocked the labor markets, the significance of this research is emphasized by its comparative analysis of the labor markets of countries on various levels of development.