The transition towards low-carbon thermal energy systems requires solid information provision to support both public and private decision-making, which is future proof and optimal in the context of the system dependencies. We adopt a data ecosystem approach to answer the following research question: How can a data ecosystem be analyzed and developed to enable the data-driven support of the local thermal energy transition, by capturing both social and technical aspects of the urban thermal energy system? A case study research design of the Netherlands, with an embedded case of the city of Utrecht therein, was used, including data collection involving 21 expert interviews representing a diversity of stakeholders, and qualitative data analysis using NVivo version 10. The data ecosystem includes the necessary elements, roles, and context for decision makers in a local heat transition and captures the social as well as technical aspects of an urban thermal energy system. Assessment of the data ecosystem pertaining to thermal heat transition in the city of Utrecht shows that it is still in its infancy phase, with challenges, barriers, and shortcomings in all its key elements. We present suggestions for the (re-)design of an inclusive and holistic data ecosystem that addresses the current shortcomings.
In 2018, the Dutch national government announced its decision to end natural gas extraction. This decision posed a challenge for local governments (municipalities); they have to organise a heat supply that is natural gas-free. Energy models can decrease the complexity of this challenge, but some challenges hinder their effective use in decision-making. The main research question of this paper is: What are the perceived advantages and limitations of energy models used by municipalities within their data-driven decision-making process concerning the natural-gas free heating transition? To answer this question, literature on energy models, data-driven policy design and modelling practices were reviewed, and based on this, nine propositions were formulated. The propositions were tested by reflecting on data from case studies of ten municipalities, including 21 experts interviews. Results show that all municipalities investigated, use or are planning to use modelling studies to develop planning documents of their own, and that more than half of the municipalities use modelling studies at some point in their local heating projects. Perceived advantages of using energy models were that the modelling process provides perspective for action, financial and socio-economic insights, transparency and legitimacy and means to start useful discussions. Perceived limitations include that models and modelling results were considered too abstract for analysis of local circumstances, not user-friendly and highly complex. All municipalities using modelling studies were found to hire external expertise, indicating that the knowledge and skill level that municipal officials have is insufficient to model independently.
The transition of our society towards a sustainable, low-carbon reality is challenging governments at all levels to establish, implement and monitor policies that can realize this transition. In the Netherlands, cities are developing datadriven policies to ensure that the urban environment will make the transition from the use of natural gas to sustainable alternatives. However, the collection and (re-)use of data is not without its challenges, which may hamper policymaking, and thereby the ambitions for the transition. Therefore, this paper explores barriers to the data collection and use for the urban heat transition, based on literature and practice. First, an overview of barriers is derived from literature. Subsequently, we interview policy makers of eight frontrunner cities to explore which barriers they encounter in practice. We find that cities need different data in different phases of the strategy development, and that the main barriers for the collection and re-use of data are the required amount of effort and time, and the experienced difficulties to take decisions based on data that is poor in quality, level of detail and topicality.
Dutch municipalities have a vital role in creating policy concerning natural gas replacement with sustainable sources in the built environment by 2050, i.e., the so-called heat transition. Over the years, information provision from research and consultants to municipal policymaking in the heat transition has covered mainly the techno-economic dimension. However, a gap remains in the social information provision which enables more comprehensive and inclusive decision-making. This study answers the following research question: What social aspects do municipal policymakers need to consider in municipal heat transition policymaking? We first conducted a systematic literature review concerning energy users’ social drivers to transition from natural gas. Second, we conducted a single case study on the policymaking process of heat transition projects in the municipality of Zoetermeer in the Netherlands. The case study involved heat transition actors with various roles in municipal decision-making, including municipal policymakers, researchers, corporations and citizens. Then we developed a framework of the social drivers of energy users to transition from natural gas. Finally, this framework was enriched in an ex-ante evaluation in a semi-structured workshop. Our study shows that energy users’ social drivers can be categorized as behavioural belief, normative belief, and control belief. These social drivers combined with the techno-economic aspects shape the energy users’ participation in the heat transformation.
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