In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.extreme precipitation events | climate change | aquatic ecology | Microcystis sp. | Anabaena sp.

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a new NASA earth science mission scheduled to be launched in 2016 that focuses on tropical cyclones (TCs) and tropical convection. The mission’s two primary objectives are the measurement of ocean surface wind speed with sufficient temporal resolution to resolve short-time-scale processes such as the rapid intensification phase of TC development and the ability of the surface measurements to penetrate through the extremely high precipitation rates typically encountered in the TC inner core. The mission’s goal is to support significant improvements in our ability to forecast TC track, intensity, and storm surge through better observations and, ultimately, better understanding of inner-core processes. CYGNSS meets its temporal sampling objective by deploying a constellation of eight satellites. Its ability to see through heavy precipitation is enabled by its operation as a bistatic radar using low-frequency GPS signals. The mission will deploy an eight-spacecraft constellation in a low-inclination (35°) circular orbit to maximize coverage and sampling in the tropics. Each CYGNSS spacecraft carries a four-channel radar receiver that measures GPS navigation signals scattered by the ocean surface. The mission will measure inner-core surface winds with high temporal resolution and spatial coverage, under all precipitating conditions, and over the full dynamic range of TC wind speeds.

Abstract. In a joint NRL/Manila Observatory mission, as part of the Seven SouthEast Asian Studies program (7-SEAS), a 2-week, late September 2011 research cruise in the northern Palawan archipelago was undertaken to observe the nature of southwest monsoonal aerosol particles in the South China Sea/East Sea (SCS/ES) and Sulu Sea region. Previous analyses suggested this region as a receptor for biomass burning from Borneo and Sumatra for boundary layer air entering the monsoonal trough. Anthropogenic pollution and biofuel emissions are also ubiquitous, as is heavy shipping traffic. Here, we provide an overview of the regional environment during the cruise, a time series of key aerosol and meteorological parameters, and their interrelationships. Overall, this cruise provides a narrative of the processes that control regional aerosol loadings and their possible feedbacks with clouds and precipitation. While 2011 was a moderate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) La Niña year, higher burning activity and lower precipitation was more typical of neutral conditions. The large-scale aerosol environment was modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity in a manner consistent with the conceptual analysis performedPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. J. S. Reid et al.: Temporal variability in South Chinas Sea aerosol propertiesby Reid et al. (2012). Advancement of the MJO from phase 3 to 6 with accompanying cyclogenesis during the cruise period strengthened flow patterns in the SCS/ES that modulated aerosol life cycle. TC inflow arms of significant convection sometimes span from Sumatra to Luzon, resulting in very low particle concentrations (minimum condensation nuclei CN < 150 cm −3 , non-sea-salt PM 2.5 < 1 µg m −3 ). However, elevated carbon monoxide levels were occasionally observed suggesting passage of polluted air masses whose aerosol particles had been rained out. Conversely, two drier periods occurred with higher aerosol particle concentrations originating from Borneo and Southern Sumatra (CN > 3000 cm −3 and non-sea-salt PM 2.5 10-25 µg m −3 ). These cases corresponded with two different mechanisms of convection suppression: lower free-tropospheric dry-air intrusion from the Indian Ocean, and large-scale TC-induced subsidence. Veering vertical wind shear also resulted in aerosol transport into this region being mainly in the marine boundary layer (MBL), although lower free troposphere transport was possible on the western sides of Sumatra and Borneo. At the hourly time scale, particle concentrations were observed to be modulated by integer factors through convection and associated cold pools. Geostationary satellite observations suggest that convection often takes the form of squall lines, which are bowed up to 500 km across the monsoonal flow and 50 km wide. These squall lines, initiated by cold pools from large thunderstorms and likely sustained by a veering vertical wind shear and aforementioned mid-troposphere dr...

In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth's atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: (i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and (ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently developed Lagrangian particle‐based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next‐generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process‐level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle‐based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods.

High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations are used to explore the sensitivity of Great Lakes lake-effect snowfall (LES) to changes in lake ice cover and surface temperature. A control simulation with observed ice cover is compared with three sensitivity tests: complete ice cover, no lake ice, and warmer lake surface temperatures. The spatial pattern of unfrozen lake surfaces determines the placement of LES, and complete ice cover eliminates it. Removal of ice cover and an increase in lake temperatures result in an expansion of the LES area both along and downwind of the lake shore, as well as an increase in snowfall amount. While lake temperatures and phase determine the amount and spatial coverage of LES, the finescale distribution of LES is strongly affected by the interaction between lake surface fluxes, the large-scale flow, and the local lake shore geography and inland topography. As a consequence, the sensitivity of LES to topography and shore geometry differs for lakes with short versus long overwater fetch. These simulations indicate that coarseresolution models may be able to realistically reproduce the gross features of LES in future climates, but will miss the important local-scale interactions that determine the location and intensity of LES.