Bentley, M. J., Ocofaigh, C., Anderson, J. B., Conway, H., Davies, B., Graham, A. G. C., Hillenbrand, C. D., Hodgson, D. A., Jamieson, S. S. R., Larter, R. D., Mackintosh, A., Smith, J. A., Verleyen, E., Ackert, R. P., Bart, P. J., Berg, S., Brunstein, D., Canals, M., Colhoun, E. A., Crosta, X., Dickens, W. A., Domack, E., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dunbar, R., Ehrmann, W., Evans, J., Favier, V., Fink, D., Fogwill, C. J., Glasser, N. F., Gohl, K., Golledge, N. R., Goodwin, I., Gore, D. B., Greenwood, S. L., Hall, B. L., Hall, K., Hedding, D. W., Hein, A. S., Hocking, E. P., Jakobsson, M., Johnson, J. S., Jomelli, V., Jones, R. S., Klages, J. P., Kristoffersen, Y., Kuhn, G., Leventer, A., Licht, K., Lilly, K., Lindow, J., Livingstone, S. J., Mass?, G., McGlone, M. S., McKay, R. M., Melles, M., Miura, H., Mulvaney, R., Nel, W., Nitsche, F. O., O'Brien, P. E., Post, A. L., Roberts, S. J., Saunders, K. M., Selkirk, P. M., Simms, A. R., Spiegel, C., Stolldorf, T. D., Sugden, D. E., van der Putten, N., van Ommen, T., Verfaillie, D., Vyverman, W., Wagner, B., White, D. A., Witus, A. E. Zwartz, D. (2014). A community-based geological reconstruction of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews, 100, 1-9.A robust understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is important in order to constrain ice sheet and glacial-isostatic adjustment models, and to explore the forcing mechanisms responsible for ice sheet retreat. Such understanding can be derived from a broad range of geological and glaciological datasets and recent decades have seen an upsurge in such data gathering around the continent and Sub-Antarctic islands. Here, we report a new synthesis of those datasets, based on an accompanying series of reviews of the geological data, organised by sector. We present a series of timeslice maps for 20 ka, 15 ka, 10 ka and 5 ka, including grounding line position and ice sheet thickness changes, along with a clear assessment of levels of confidence. The reconstruction shows that the Antarctic Ice sheet did not everywhere reach the continental shelf edge at its maximum, that initial retreat was asynchronous, and that the spatial pattern of deglaciation was highly variable, particularly on the inner shelf. The deglacial reconstruction is consistent with a moderate overall excess ice volume and with a relatively small Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse la. We discuss key areas of uncertainty both around the continent and by time interval, and we highlight potential priorities for future work. The synthesis is intended to be a resource for the modelling and glacial geological community. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.publishersversionPeer reviewe

This paper is the maritime and sub Antarctic contribution to the Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research (SCAR) Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS) community Antarctic Ice Sheet reconstruction. The overarching aim for all sectors of Antarctica was to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheet extent and thickness, and map the subsequent deglaciation in a series of 5000 year time slices. However, our review of the literature found surprisingly few high quality chronological constraints on changing glacier extents on these timescales in the maritime and sub Antarctic sector. Therefore, in this paper we focus on an assessment of the terrestrial and offshore evidence for the LGM ice extent, establishing minimum ages for the onset of deglaciation, and separating evidence of deglaciation from LGM limits from those associated with later Holocene glacier fluctuations. Evidence included geomorphological descriptions of glacial landscapes, radiocarbon dated basal peat and lake sediment deposits, cosmogenic isotope ages of glacial features and molecular biological data. We propose a classification of the glacial history of the maritime and sub Antarctic islands based on this assembled evidence. These include: (Type I) islands which accumulated little or no LGM ice; (Type II) islands with a limited LGM ice extent but evidence of extensive earlier continental shelf glaciations; (Type III) seamounts and volcanoes unlikely to have accumulated significant LGM ice cover; (Type IV) islands on shallow shelves with both terrestrial and submarine evidence of LGM (and/or earlier) ice expansion; (Type V) Islands north of the Antarctic Polar Front with terrestrial evidence of LGM ice expansion; and (Type VI) islands with no data. Finally, we review the climatological and geomorphological settings that separate the glaciological history of the islands within this classification scheme

Abstract. This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and observations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5–EURO-CORDEX GCM–RCM pairs spanning historical (1950–2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13 each) future scenarios (2006–2100). The adjusted climate model runs were used to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snow accounts for 20 % typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have a much smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rather similar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation of the ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannual variability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, and continued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latter leading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in local meteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with global temperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2 ∘C above preindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32 % reduction, respectively, of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986–2005. Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding 2 ∘C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorial indicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or natural hazards.

The ongoing retreat of glaciers at southern sub-polar latitudes is particularly rapid and widespread. Akin to northern sub-polar latitudes, this retreat is generally assumed to be linked to warming. However, no long-term and well-constrained glacier modeling has ever been performed to confirm this hypothesis. Here, we model the Cook Ice Cap mass balance on the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Indian Ocean, 49°S) since the 1850s. We show that glacier wastage during the 2000s in the Kerguelen was among the most dramatic on Earth. We attribute 77% of the increasingly negative mass balance since the 1960s to atmospheric drying associated with a poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm track. Because precipitation modeling is very challenging for the current generation of climate models over the study area, models incorrectly simulate the climate drivers behind the recent glacier wastage in the Kerguelen. This suggests that future glacier wastage projections should be considered cautiously where changes in atmospheric circulation are expected.

Ski tourism is a major sector of mountain regions economy, which is under the threat of long-term climate change. Snow management, and in particular grooming and artificial snowmaking, has become a routine component of ski resort operations, holding potential for counteracting the detrimental effect of natural snow decline. However, conventional snowmaking can only operate under specific meteorological conditions. Whether snowmaking is a relevant adaptation measure under future climate change is a widely debated issue in mountainous regions, with major implications on the supply side of this tourism industry. This often lacks comprehensive scientific studies for informing public and private decisions in this sector. Here we show how climate change influences the operating conditions of one of the main ski tourism markets worldwide, the French Alps. Our study addresses snow reliability in 129 ski resorts in the French Alps in the 21st century, using a dedicated snowpack model explicitly accounting for grooming and snowmaking driven by a large ensemble of adjusted and downscaled regional climate projections, and using a geospatial model of ski resorts organization. A 45% snowmaking fractional coverage, representative of the infrastructures in the early 2020s, is projected to improve snow reliability over grooming-only snow conditions, both during the reference period 1986–2005 and below 2 °C global warming since pre-industrial. Beyond 3 °C of global warming, with 45% snowmaking coverage, snow conditions would become frequently unreliable and induce higher water requirements.

Abstract. The mass balance of ice sheets is an intensively studied topic in the context of global change and sealevel rise. However -particularly in Antarctica -obtaining mass balance estimates remains difficult due to various logistical problems. In the framework of the TASTE-IDEA (Trans-Antarctic Scientific Traverses Expeditions -Ice Divide of East Antarctica) program, an International Polar Year project, continuous ground penetrating radar (GPR) measurements were carried out during a traverse in Adelie Land (East Antarctica) during the 2008-2009 austral summer between the Italian-French Dome C (DC) polar plateau site and French Dumont D'Urville (DdU) coastal station. The aim of this study was to process and interpret GPR data in terms of snow accumulation, to analyse its spatial and temporal variability and compare it with historical data and modelling. The focus was on the last 300 yr, from the preindustrial period to recent times. Beta-radioactivity counting and gamma spectrometry were applied to cores at the LGGE laboratory, providing a depth-age calibration for radar measurements. Over the 600 km of usable GPR data, depth and snow accumulation were determined with the help of three distinct layers visible on the radargrams (≈ 1730(≈ , 1799(≈ and 1941. Preliminary results reveal a gradual increase in accumulation towards the coast (from ≈ 3 cm w.e. a −1 at Dome C to ≈ 17 cm w.e. a −1 at the end of the transect) and previously undocumented undulating structures between 300 and 600 km from DC. Results agree fairly well with data from previous studies and modelling. Drawing final conclusions on temporal variations is difficult because of the margin of error introduced by density estimation. This study should have various applications, including model validation.

The quantification of uncertainty sources in ensembles of climate projections obtained from combinations of different scenarios and climate and impact models is a key issue in climate impact studies. The small size of the ensembles of simulation chains and their incomplete sampling of scenario and climate model combinations makes the analysis difficult. In the popular single-time ANOVA approach for instance, a precise estimate of internal variability requires multiple members for each simulation chain (e.g., each emission scenario–climate model combination), but multiple members are typically available for a few chains only. In most ensembles also, a precise partition of model uncertainty components is not possible because the matrix of available scenario/models combinations is incomplete (i.e., projections are missing for many scenario–model combinations). The method we present here, based on data augmentation and Bayesian techniques, overcomes such limitations and makes the statistical analysis possible for single-member and incomplete ensembles. It provides unbiased estimates of climate change responses of all simulation chains and of all uncertainty variables. It additionally propagates uncertainty due to missing information in the estimates. This approach is illustrated for projections of regional precipitation and temperature for four mountain massifs in France. It is applicable for any kind of ensemble of climate projections, including those produced from ad hoc impact models.

Cap were compared to data from the early 1970s, providing a 40 year view of the differences in the spatial distribution of surface mass balance (SMB). To obtain additional regional data for the validation of our models, we analyzed MODIS images (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) to determine if our model was capable of reproducing variations in the transient snow line. The PDD model correctly simulated the variations in the snow line, the spatial variations in the SMB, and its trend with elevation. Yet current SMB values diverge from their classic linear representation with elevation, and stake data at high altitudes now display more negative SMB values than expected. By analyzing MODIS albedo, we observed that these values are caused by the disappearance of snow and associated feedback on melt rates. In addition, certain parts of Ampere Glacier could not be reproduced by the surface energy balance model because of overaccumulation due to wind deposition. Finally, the MODIS data, field data, and our models suggest that the acceleration of glacier wastage in Kerguelen is due to reduced net accumulation and an associated rise in the snow line since the 1970s.