Ski tourism is a major sector of mountain regions economy, which is under the threat of long-term climate change. Snow management, and in particular grooming and artificial snowmaking, has become a routine component of ski resort operations, holding potential for counteracting the detrimental effect of natural snow decline. However, conventional snowmaking can only operate under specific meteorological conditions. Whether snowmaking is a relevant adaptation measure under future climate change is a widely debated issue in mountainous regions, with major implications on the supply side of this tourism industry. This often lacks comprehensive scientific studies for informing public and private decisions in this sector. Here we show how climate change influences the operating conditions of one of the main ski tourism markets worldwide, the French Alps. Our study addresses snow reliability in 129 ski resorts in the French Alps in the 21st century, using a dedicated snowpack model explicitly accounting for grooming and snowmaking driven by a large ensemble of adjusted and downscaled regional climate projections, and using a geospatial model of ski resorts organization. A 45% snowmaking fractional coverage, representative of the infrastructures in the early 2020s, is projected to improve snow reliability over grooming-only snow conditions, both during the reference period 1986–2005 and below 2 °C global warming since pre-industrial. Beyond 3 °C of global warming, with 45% snowmaking coverage, snow conditions would become frequently unreliable and induce higher water requirements.

Le patrimoine prend une place de plus en plus importante dans les politiques d’Aménagement du territoire. Nous avons donc voulu aborder cette notion avec les instruments que nous offrait la grille de lecture en termes de ressources spécifiques établie dans le cadre de recherche sur les systèmes de production localisés. Cette démarche débouche sur une réflexion croisée entre les concepts de ressource et de patrimoine qui permet de compléter notre référentiel théorique de départ. Nous proposons finalement une nouvelle forme de ressource que nous qualifions de « territoriale » pour laquelle nous avançons les premiers éléments d’une définition.

To cite this version: The understanding and implementation of snow management in detailed snowpack 8 models is a major step towards a more realistic assessment of the evolution of snow 9 conditions in ski resorts concerning past, present and future climate conditions. Here process. The observed ratio between the mass of machine-made snow on ski slopes 23 and the water mass used for production was found to be lower than was expected 24 from the literature, in every resort. 25Nevertheless, the model now referred to as "Crocus-Resort" has been proven to 26 provide realistic simulations of snow conditions on ski slopes and may be used for 27 further investigations.

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections using Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986–2005) and was shown to be highly impacted by the ongoing climate change. The reliability elevation using snowmaking is projected to rise by 200 to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030–2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 % of ski lift infrastructures exhibit adequate snow reliability in the reference period when using snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 % to 25 %) may be considered in a critical situation in the near future. Beyond the mid-century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with either steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP2.6) or continuous decrease in snow reliability (RCP8.5). Under RCP8.5, our projections show that there would no longer be any snow-reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in the French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080–2100). For this time period and this scenario, only 24 resorts are projected to remain reliable with snowmaking, all being located in the Alps.

No abstract

Abstract. The production of Machine Made (MM) snow is now generalized in ski resorts and represents the most common method of adaptation for mitigating the impact of a lack of snow on skiing. Most investigations of correlations between snow conditions and the ski industry's economy focus on the production of MM snow though not one of these has taken into account the efficiency of the snowmaking process. The present study consists of observations of snow conditions (depth and mass) using a Differential GPS method and snow density coring, following snowmaking events and seasonal snow accumulation in Les Deux Alpes ski resort (French Alps). A detailed physically based snowpack model accounting for grooming and snowmaking was used to compute the seasonal evolution of the snowpack and compared to the observations. Our results show that approximately 30 % of the water mass can be recovered as MM snow within 10 m from the center of a MM snow pile after production and 50 % within 20 m. Observations and simulations on the ski slope were relatively consistent with 60 % (±10 %) of the water mass used for snowmaking within the limits of the ski slope. Losses due to thermodynamic effects were estimated in the current case example to be less than 10 % of the total water mass. These results suggest that even in ideal conditions for production a significant fraction of the water used for snowmaking can not be found as MM snow within the limits of the ski slope with most of the missing fraction of water. This is due to site dependent characteristics (e.g. meteorological conditions, topography).

Indicators are widely used in climate variability and climate change assessments to simplify the tracking of complex processes and phenomena in the state of the environment. Apart from the climatic criteria, the snow indicators in ski tourism have been increasingly extended with elements that relate to the technical, operational, and commercial aspects of ski tourism. These non-natural influencing factors have gained in importance in comparison with the natural environmental conditions but are more difficult to comprehend in time and space, resulting in limited explanatory power of the related indicators when applied for larger/longer scale assessments. We review the existing indicator approaches to derive quantitative measures for the snow conditions in ski areas, to formulate the criteria that the indicators should fulfill, and to provide a list of indicators with their technical specifications which can be used in snow condition assessments for ski tourism. For the use of these indicators, a three-step procedure consisting of definition, application, and interpretation is suggested. We also provide recommendations for the design of indicator-based assessments of climate change effects on ski tourism. Thereby, we highlight the importance of extensive stakeholder involvement to allow for real-world relevance of the achieved results.

No abstract