A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise: 2003 to 2009Gardner, Alex S; Bolch, Tobias; et al Abstract: Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world's oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during [2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009], with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was -259 T 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 T 13% of the observed sea level rise.

Glaciers are among the best indicators of terrestrial climate variability, contribute importantly to water resources in many mountainous regions and are a major contributor to global sea level rise. In the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region (HKKH), a paucity of appropriate glacier data has prevented a comprehensive assessment of current regional mass balance. There is, however, indirect evidence of a complex pattern of glacial responses in reaction to heterogeneous climate change signals. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and a global elevation model to show widespread glacier wastage in the eastern, central and south-western parts of the HKKH during 2003-08. Maximal regional thinning rates were 0.66 ± 0.09 metres per year in the Jammu-Kashmir region. Conversely, in the Karakoram, glaciers thinned only slightly by a few centimetres per year. Contrary to expectations, regionally averaged thinning rates under debris-mantled ice were similar to those of clean ice despite insulation by debris covers. The 2003-08 specific mass balance for our entire HKKH study region was -0.21 ± 0.05 m yr(-1) water equivalent, significantly less negative than the estimated global average for glaciers and ice caps. This difference is mainly an effect of the balanced glacier mass budget in the Karakoram. The HKKH sea level contribution amounts to one per cent of the present-day sea level rise. Our 2003-08 mass budget of -12.8 ± 3.5 gigatonnes (Gt) per year is more negative than recent satellite-gravimetry-based estimates of -5 ± 3 Gt yr(-1) over 2003-10 (ref. 12). For the mountain catchments of the Indus and Ganges basins, the glacier imbalance contributed about 3.5% and about 2.0%, respectively, to the annual average river discharge, and up to 10% for the Upper Indus basin.

High Mountain Asia hosts the largest glacier concentration outside the polar regions. These glaciers are important contributors to streamflow in one of the most populated areas of the world. Past studies have used methods that can only provide regionally-averaged glacier mass balances to assess the High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to rivers and sea level rise. Here we compute the mass balance for about 92 % of the glacierized area of High Mountain Asia using time series of digital elevation models derived from satellite stereo-imagery. We calculate an average region-wide mass balance of -16.3 ± 3.5 Gt yr-1 (-0.18 ± 0.04 m w.e. yr-1) between 2000 and 2016, which is less negative than most previous estimates. Region-wide mass balances vary from -4.0 ± 1.5 Gt yr-1 (-0.62 ± 0.23 m w.e. yr-1) in Nyainqentanglha to +1.4 ± 0.8 Gt yr-1 (+0.14 ± 0.08 m w.e. yr-1) in Kunlun, with large intra-regional variability of individual glacier mass balances (standard deviation within a region ˜0.20 m w.e. yr-1). Specifically, our results shed light on the Nyainqentanglha and Pamir glacier mass changes, for which contradictory estimates exist in the literature. They provide crucial information for the calibration of the models used for projections of future glacier response to climatic changes, models that presently do not capture the pattern, magnitude and intra-regional variability of glacier changes in High Mountain Asia.

Abstract. The recent evolution of Pamir-Karakoram-Himalaya (PKH) glaciers, widely acknowledged as valuable high-altitude as well as mid-latitude climatic indicators, remains poorly known. To estimate the region-wide glacier mass balance for 9 study sites spread from the Pamir to the Hengduan Shan (eastern Himalaya), we compared the 2000 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) to recent (2008–2011) DEMs derived from SPOT5 stereo imagery. During the last decade, the region-wide glacier mass balances were contrasted with moderate mass losses in the eastern and central Himalaya (−0.22 ± 0.12 m w.e. yr−1 to −0.33 ± 0.14 m w.e. yr−1) and larger losses in the western Himalaya (−0.45 ± 0.13 m w.e. yr−1). Recently reported slight mass gain or balanced mass budget of glaciers in the central Karakoram is confirmed for a larger area (+0.10 ± 0.16 m w.e. yr−1) and also observed for glaciers in the western Pamir (+0.14 ± 0.13 m w.e. yr−1). Thus, the "Karakoram anomaly" should be renamed the "Pamir-Karakoram anomaly", at least for the last decade. The overall mass balance of PKH glaciers, −0.14 ± 0.08 m w.e. yr−1, is two to three times less negative than the global average for glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Together with recent studies using ICESat and GRACE data, DEM differencing confirms a contrasted pattern of glacier mass change in the PKH during the first decade of the 21st century.

Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking rapidly, altering regional hydrology 1 , raising global sea-level 2 and elevating natural hazards 3 . Yet, due to the scarcity of constrained mass loss observations, glacier evolution during the satellite era is only known as a geographic and temporal patchwork 4,5 . Here we reveal the accelerated, albeit contrasted, patterns of glacier mass loss during the early twenty-first century. By leveraging largely untapped satellite archives, we chart surface elevation changes at a high spatiotemporal resolution over all of Earth's glaciers. We extensively validate our estimates against independent, high-precision measurements and present the first globally complete and consistent estimate of glacier mass change. We show that, during 2000-2019, glaciers lost 267 ± 16 Gt yr -1 , equivalent to 21 ± 3% of observed sea-level rise 6 . We identify a mass loss acceleration of 48 ± 16 Gt yr -1 per decade, explaining 6-19% of the observed acceleration of sea-level rise. Particularly, thinning rates of glaciers outside ice sheet peripheries doubled over the last two decades. Glaciers presently lose more mass, and at similar or larger accelerated rates, than the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets taken separately [7][8][9] . Uncovering the patterns of mass change in many regions, we find contrasted glacier fluctuations that agree with decadal variability in precipitation and temperature. Those include a newly-identified North Atlantic anomaly of decelerated mass loss, a strongly accelerated loss from Northwestern American glaciers and the apparent end of the Karakoram anomaly of mass gain 10 . We anticipate our highly-resolved estimates to foster the understanding of drivers that govern the distribution of glacier change, and to extend our capabilities of predicting these changes at all scales. Predictions robustly benchmarked against observations are critically needed to design adaptive policies for the management of local water resources and cryospheric risks as well as for regional-to-global sea-level rise.About 200 million people live on land predicted to fall below the high-tide lines of rising sea levels by the end of the century 11 , while more than one billion could face water shortage and food insecurity within the next three decades 4 . Glaciers distinct from the ice sheets play a prominent role in these repercussions as the largest estimated contributor to twenty-first century sea-level rise after thermal expansion 2 , and as one of the most climate-sensitive constituents of the world's natural water towers 12,13 . Current glacier retreat temporarily mitigates water stress on populations reliant on ice reserves by increasing river runoff 1 , but this short-lived effect will eventually decline 14 . Understanding present-day and future glacier mass change is thus crucial to avoid water scarcity-induced socio-political instability 15 , to predict the alteration of coastal areas due to sea-level rise 4 , and to assess the impacts on ecosystems 16 as w...

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Abstract. We present glacier thickness changes over the entire Pamir–Karakoram–Himalaya arc based on ICESat satellite altimetry data for 2003–2008. We highlight the importance of C-band penetration for studies based on the SRTM elevation model. This penetration seems to be of potentially larger magnitude and variability than previously assumed. The most negative rate of region-wide glacier elevation change (

ABSTRACT. Deriving glacier outlines from satellite data has become increasingly popular in the past decade. In particular when glacier outlines are used as a base for change assessment, it is important to know how accurate they are. Calculating the accuracy correctly is challenging, as appropriate reference data (e.g. from higher-resolution sensors) are seldom available. Moreover, after the required manual correction of the raw outlines (e.g. for debris cover), such a comparison would only reveal the accuracy of the analyst rather than of the algorithm applied. Here we compare outlines for clean and debriscovered glaciers, as derived from single and multiple digitizing by different or the same analysts on very high-(1 m) and medium-resolution (30 m) remote-sensing data, against each other and to glacier outlines derived from automated classification of Landsat Thematic Mapper data. Results show a high variability in the interpretation of debris-covered glacier parts, largely independent of the spatial resolution (area differences were up to 30%), and an overall good agreement for clean ice with sufficient contrast to the surrounding terrain (differences $5%). The differences of the automatically derived outlines from a reference value are as small as the standard deviation of the manual digitizations from several analysts. Based on these results, we conclude that automated mapping of clean ice is preferable to manual digitization and recommend using the latter method only for required corrections of incorrectly mapped glacier parts (e.g. debris cover, shadow).