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There is compelling evidence that Afro-Palaearctic (A-P) migrant bird populations have declined in Europe in recent decades, often to a greater degree than resident or shortdistance migrants. There appear to have been two phases of decline. The first in the 1960s-1970s, and in some cases into the early 1980s, largely affected species wintering predominantly in the arid Sahelian zone, and the second since the 1980s has mostly affected species wintering in the humid tropics and Guinea forest zone. Potential drivers of these declines are diverse and are spread across and interact within the migratory cycle. Our knowledge of declining species is generally better for the breeding than the non-breeding parts of their life cycles, but there are significant gaps in both for many species. On the breeding grounds, degradation of breeding habitats is the factor affecting the demography of the largest number of species, particularly within agricultural systems and woodland and forests. In the non-breeding areas, the interacting factors of anthropogenic habitat degradation and climatic conditions, particularly drought in the Sahel zone, appear to be the most important factors. Based on our synthesis of existing information, we suggest four priorities for further research: (1) use of new and emerging tracking technologies to identify migratory pathways and strategies, understand migratory connectivity and enable field research to be targeted more effectively; (2) undertake detailed field studies in sub-Saharan Africa and at staging sites, where we understand little about distribution patterns, habitat use and foraging ecology; (3) make better use of the wealth of data from the European breeding grounds to explore spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and relate these to migratory pathways and large-scale patterns of habitat change and climatic factors; and (4) make better use of remote sensing to improve our understanding of how and where land cover is changing across these extensive areas and how this impacts A-P migrants. This research needs to inform and underpin a flyway approach to conservation, evaluating a suite of drivers across the migratory cycle and combining this with an understanding of land management practices that integrate the needs of birds and people in these areas.

Summary1. Rapid population declines of the vultures Gyps bengalensis , Gyps indicus and Gyps tenuirostris have recently been observed in India and Pakistan, continuing at least up to 2003. Surveys indicate annual rates of decline of 22 -50% for G. bengalensis and G. indicus during 2000-03. Previous studies in Pakistan have shown that the non-steroidal antiinflammatory drug diclofenac causes renal failure and is lethal to G. bengalensis when it feeds on the carcass of a domestic animal that received a normal veterinary dose shortly before death. In Pakistan, diclofenac poisoning was found to be by far the most frequent cause of death. 2. A simulation model of vulture demography, described in this paper, demonstrated that the observed rates of population decline could be caused by contamination with a lethal level of diclofenac in a small proportion (between 1 : 130 and 1 : 760) of ungulate carcasses available to vultures. 3. Proportions of adult and subadult vultures found dead or dying in the wild that had signs of diclofenac poisoning were similar to the proportions of deaths expected from the model if the observed population decline was due entirely to diclofenac poisoning. The proportion of the excess mortality required to cause the observed population declines that could be attributable to diclofenac was estimated to be between 71% and 100%, depending on model assumptions. However, across all or most of the plausible range of assumed values for adult survival, the upper 95% confidence limit for the proportion of excess mortality due to diclofenac was 100%. Hence, available data are consistent with diclofenac poisoning being at least the major cause, and possibly the only cause, of rapid population declines of Gyps vultures across the Indian subcontinent. 4. Synthesis and applications . We recommend that urgent action is taken in the range states of the three currently threatened vulture species to prevent the exposure of vultures to livestock carcasses contaminated with diclofenac. Research is also needed to identify alternative drugs that are effective in livestock and safe for vultures. Efforts should also be made to raise awareness, among veterinarians, pharmacists, livestock owners and the general public, of the problem of diclofenac contamination and the availability of safe alternatives. Captive holding and breeding of vultures until diclofenac is controlled is recommended as a precaution to ensure the long-term survival of the threatened species and to provide a stock of birds for future reintroduction programmes.

Despite widespread concern, the continuing effectiveness of networks of protected areas under projected 21st century climate change is uncertain. Shifts in species' distributions could mean these resources will cease to afford protection to those species for which they were originally established. Using modelled projected shifts in the distributions of sub-Saharan Africa's entire breeding avifauna, we show that species turnover across the continent's Important Bird Area (IBA) network is likely to vary regionally and will be substantial at many sites (> 50% at 42% of IBAs by 2085 for priority species). Persistence of suitable climate space across the network as a whole, however, is notably high, with 88-92% of priority species retaining suitable climate space in >or= 1 IBA(s) in which they are currently found. Only 7-8 priority species lose climatic representation from the network. Hence, despite the likelihood of significant community disruption, we demonstrate that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Three endemic vulture species Gyps bengalensis , Gyps indicus and Gyps tenuirostris are critically endangered following dramatic declines in South Asia resulting from exposure to diclofenac, a veterinary drug present in the livestock carcasses that they scavenge. Diclofenac is widely used globally and could present a risk to Gyps species from other regions. In this study, we test the toxicity of diclofenac to a Eurasian ( Gyps fulvus ) and an African ( Gyps africanus ) species, neither of which is threatened. A dose of 0.8 mg kg −1 of diclofenac was highly toxic to both species, indicating that they are at least as sensitive to diclofenac as G. bengalensis , for which we estimate an LD 50 of 0.1–0.2 mg kg −1 . We suggest that diclofenac is likely to be toxic to all eight Gyps species, and that G. africanus , which is phylogenetically close to G. bengalensis , would be a suitable surrogate for the safety testing of alternative drugs to diclofenac.

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Recent declines in the populations of three species of vultures in the Indian subcontinent are among the most rapid ever recorded in any bird species. Evidence from a previous study of one of these species, Gyps bengalensis, in the Punjab province of Pakistan, strongly implicates mortality caused by ingestion of residues of the veterinary non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac as the major cause of the decline. We show that a high proportion of Gyps bengalensis and G. indicus found dead or dying in a much larger area of India and Nepal also have residues of diclofenac and visceral gout, a post-mortem finding that is strongly associated with diclofenac contamination in both species. Hence, veterinary use of diclofenac is likely to have been the major cause of the rapid vulture population declines across the subcontinent.