The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) seeks to facilitate ecological prediction at a continental scale by measuring processes that drive change and responses at sites across the United States for thirty years. The spatial distribution of observations of terrestrial organisms and soil within NEON sites is determined according to a “design‐based” sample design that relies on the randomization of sampling locations. Development of the sample design was guided by high‐level NEON objectives and the multitude of data products that will be subjected to numerous analytical approaches to address the causes and consequences of ecological change. A requirement framework permeates the NEON design, ensuring traceability from each facet of the design to the high‐level requirements that make the NEON mission statement actionable. Requirements were developed for the terrestrial sample design to guide the key components of the design:
Randomizing the sample locations ensures the unbiased collection of data, is appropriate for organisms and soil, and provides data suitable for a variety of analyses.
Stratification increases efficiency and allows sampling to focus on those parts of the landscape measured by other NEON observation platforms.
Attention to the sample size and spatial plot allocation ensures that data products will be sufficient to inform questions asked of the data and the NEON objectives.
Establishing a framework with the capacity for re‐evaluate and design iteration allows for adaption to unexpected challenges and optimization of the sample design based on early data returns.
The utility of the NEON sampling design is highlighted by its application across terrestrial systems. The data generated from this unique design will be used to quantify patterns in: the abundance and diversity of small mammals, breeding birds, insects, and soil microbes; vegetation structure, biomass, productivity, and diversity; and soil biogeochemistry.
Human activities alter ecosystems everywhere, causing rapid biodiversity loss and biotic homogenization. These losses necessitate coordinated conservation actions guided by biodiversity and species distribution spatial data that cover large areas yet have fine-enough resolution to be management-relevant (i.e., ≤5 km). However, most biodiversity products are too coarse for management or are only available for small areas. Furthermore, many maps generated for biodiversity assessment and conservation do not explicitly quantify the inherent tradeoff between resolution and accuracy when predicting biodiversity patterns. Our goals were to generate predictive models of overall breeding bird species richness and species richness of different guilds based on nine functional or life-history-based traits across the conterminous United States at three resolutions (0.5, 2.5, and 5 km) and quantify the tradeoff between resolution and accuracy and, hence, relevance for management of the resulting biodiversity maps. We summarized 18 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey data (1992-2019) and modeled species richness using random forests, including 66 predictor variables (describing climate, vegetation, geomorphology, and anthropogenic conditions), 20 of which we newly derived. Among the three spatial resolutions, the percentage variance explained ranged from 27% to 60% (median = 54%; mean = 57%) for overall species richness and 12% to 87% (median = 61%; mean = 58%) for our different guilds. Overall species richness and guild-specific species richness were best explained at 5-km resolution using $24 predictor variables based on percentage variance explained, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error values. However, our 2.5-km-resolution maps were almost as accurate and provided more spatially detailed information, which is why we recommend them for most management applications. Our results represent the first consistent, occurrence-based, and nationwide maps of breeding bird richness with a thorough accuracy assessment that are also spatially detailed enough to inform local management decisions. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of explicitly considering tradeoffs between resolution and accuracy to create management-relevant biodiversity products for large areas.
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