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This study analyzes current energy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission trends in China's cement industry as the basis for modeling different levels of cement production and rates of efficiency improvement and carbon reduction in 2011-2030. Three cement output projections are developed based on analyses of historical production and physical and macroeconomic drivers. For each of these three production projections, energy savings and CO2 emission reduction potentials are estimated in a best practice scenario and two continuous improvement scenarios relative to a frozen scenario. The results reveal the potential for cumulative final energy savings of 27.1 to 37.5 exajoules and energy-related direct emission reductions of 3.2 to 4.4 gigatonnes in 2011-2030 under the best practice scenarios. The continuous improvement scenarios produce cumulative final energy savings of 6.0 to 18.9 exajoules and reduce CO2 emissions by 1.0 to 2.4 gigatonnes. This analysis highlights that increasing energy efficiency is the most important policy measure for reducing the cement industry's energy and emissions intensity, given the current state of the industry and the unlikelihood of significant carbon capture and storage before 2030. In addition, policies to reduce total cement production offer the most direct way of reducing total energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

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During the period 1980 to 2002, China experienced a 5% average annual reduction in energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The period 2002-2005 saw a dramatic reversal of the historic relationship between energy use and GDP growth: energy use per unit of GDP increased an average of 3.8% per year during this period (NBS, various years). China's 11th Five Year Plan (FYP), which covers the period 2006-2010, required all government divisions at different levels to reduce energy intensity by 20% in five years in order to regain the relationship between energy and GDP growth experienced during the 1980s and 1990s. This report provides an assessment of selected policies and programs that China has instituted in its quest to fulfill the national goal of a 20% reduction in energy intensity by 2010. The report finds that China has made substantial progress toward its goal of achieving 20% energy intensity reduction from 2006 to 2010 and that many of the energy-efficiency programs implemented during the 11th FYP in support of China's 20% energy/GDP reduction goal appear to be on track to meet -or in some cases even exceed -their energy-saving targets. It appears that most of the Ten Key Projects, the Top-1000 Program, and the Small Plant Closure Program are on track to meet or surpass the 11th FYP savings goals. China's appliance standards and labeling program, which was established prior to the 11th FYP, has become very robust during the 11th FYP period. China has greatly enhanced its enforcement of new building energy standards but energy-efficiency programs for buildings retrofits, as well as the goal of adjusting China's economic structure to reduce the share of energy consumed by industry, do not appear to be on track to meet the stated goals. With the implementation of the 11 th FYP now bearing fruit, it is important to maintain and strengthen the existing energy-saving policies and programs that are successful while revising programs or adding new policy mechanisms to improve the programs that are not on track to achieve the stated goals. This report provides an assessment of selected policies and programs that China has instituted in its quest to fulfill the national goal of a 20% reduction in energy intensity by 2010 (originally announced as "20% more or less" (20%左右). The report finds that China has made substantial progress toward its goal of achieving 20% energy intensity reduction from 2006 to 2010 and that many of the energyefficiency programs implemented during the 11th FYP in support of China's 20% energy/GDP reduction goal appear to be on track to meet -or in some cases even exceed -their energy-saving targets.Table ES-2 provides information on the primary energy savings identified for each of the programs reviewed in this report. It appears that most of the Ten Key Projects, the Top-1000 Program, and the ES-2Small Plant Closure Program are on track to meet or surpass the 11th FYP savings goals. China's appliance standards and labeling program, which was established prior to t...

Although China became the world's largest CO 2 emitter in 2007, the country has also taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity. This study uses the bottom-up LBNL China End-Use Energy Model to assess the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its 2020 intensity reduction goals. Two scenarios -Continued Improvement and Accelerated Improvement -were developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to reduce energy demand and emissions. This scenario analysis presents an important modeling approach based in the diffusion of end-use technologies and physical drivers of energy demand and thereby help illuminate China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies. The findings suggest that China's CO 2 emissions will not likely continue growing throughout this century because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, fertilizer use; and population peak around 2030 with slowing urban population growth. The scenarios also underscore the significant role that policy-driven efficiency improvements will play in meeting 2020 carbon mitigation goals along with a decarbonized power supply.

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Growths of China's building floorspace were projected from 2010 to 2050. A building stock turnover model was built to reflect annual building stock dynamics. Building related materials and energy demand were projected.

As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, China pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions around 2030, striving to peak earlier, and to increase the non-fossil share of primary energy to 20% by 2030. Yet by the end of 2017, China emitted 28% of the world's energy-related CO 2 emissions, 76% of which were from coal use. How China can reinvent its energy economy cost-effectively while still achieving its commitments was the focus of a three-year joint research project completed in September 2016. Overall, this analysis found that if China follows a pathway in which it aggressively adopts all cost-effective energy efficiency and CO 2 emission reduction technologies while also aggressively moving away from fossil fuels to renewable and other non-fossil resources, it is possible to not only meet its Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments, but also to reduce its 2050 CO 2 emissions to a level that is 42% below the country's 2010 CO 2 emissions. While numerous barriers exist that will need to be addressed through effective policies and programs in order to realize these potential energy use and emissions reductions, there are also significant local environmental (e.g., air quality), national and global environmental (e.g., mitigation of climate change), human health, and other unquantified benefits that will be realized if this pathway is pursued in China.