Assessment of China's energy-saving and emission-reduction accomplishments and opportunities during the 11th Five Year Plan

Abstract

During the period 1980 to 2002, China experienced a 5% average annual reduction in energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The period 2002-2005 saw a dramatic reversal of the historic relationship between energy use and GDP growth: energy use per unit of GDP increased an average of 3.8% per year during this period (NBS, various years). China's 11th Five Year Plan (FYP), which covers the period 2006-2010, required all government divisions at different levels to reduce energy intensity by 20% in five years in order to regain the relationship between energy and GDP growth experienced during the 1980s and 1990s. This report provides an assessment of selected policies and programs that China has instituted in its quest to fulfill the national goal of a 20% reduction in energy intensity by 2010. The report finds that China has made substantial progress toward its goal of achieving 20% energy intensity reduction from 2006 to 2010 and that many of the energy-efficiency programs implemented during the 11th FYP in support of China's 20% energy/GDP reduction goal appear to be on track to meet -or in some cases even exceed -their energy-saving targets. It appears that most of the Ten Key Projects, the Top-1000 Program, and the Small Plant Closure Program are on track to meet or surpass the 11th FYP savings goals. China's appliance standards and labeling program, which was established prior to the 11th FYP, has become very robust during the 11th FYP period. China has greatly enhanced its enforcement of new building energy standards but energy-efficiency programs for buildings retrofits, as well as the goal of adjusting China's economic structure to reduce the share of energy consumed by industry, do not appear to be on track to meet the stated goals. With the implementation of the 11 th FYP now bearing fruit, it is important to maintain and strengthen the existing energy-saving policies and programs that are successful while revising programs or adding new policy mechanisms to improve the programs that are not on track to achieve the stated goals. This report provides an assessment of selected policies and programs that China has instituted in its quest to fulfill the national goal of a 20% reduction in energy intensity by 2010 (originally announced as "20% more or less" (20%左右). The report finds that China has made substantial progress toward its goal of achieving 20% energy intensity reduction from 2006 to 2010 and that many of the energyefficiency programs implemented during the 11th FYP in support of China's 20% energy/GDP reduction goal appear to be on track to meet -or in some cases even exceed -their energy-saving targets.Table ES-2 provides information on the primary energy savings identified for each of the programs reviewed in this report. It appears that most of the Ten Key Projects, the Top-1000 Program, and the ES-2Small Plant Closure Program are on track to meet or surpass the 11th FYP savings goals. China's appliance standards and labeling program, which was established prior to t...

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“…For instance, small-scale power plants were prohibited, and small coal-fired power plants with inefficient facilities had been continuously closed down through 2002. However, closure of small and inefficient power plants stopped completely from 2003 to 2004, due to the power supply shortages experienced in China at that time [37]. In addition, closing of small plants with outdated capacity was again accelerated from 2005, showing the average growth rate of closure capacity of 115% from 2005 to 2008, as reported by [37].…”

“…However, these measures are not enough to complete the desired structural shift away from carbon intensive and low efficiency systems. As mentioned by Price et al [37], additional measures are needed, such as adoption of international practices in energy management and technologies to encourage efficiency gains, and energy pricing reform (including, energy or carbon taxes) to incentivize economic agents (electricity producers and consumers) to reduce energy consumption with efficiency gains.…”

“…Those approaches aimed to increase the overall efficiency in the power generation and transmission process, implement effective incentive mechanisms, and deliver electricity with lower costs. Price et al [37] estimated that China's power market reforms with closures of small plants and outdated generation capacities resulted in significant amounts of savings from final energy and primary energy consumption. In addition, Xu and Chen [36] estimated that the coal consumption for power supply in China was reduced with improvements of fuel use in the power generation process after the market reforms in 2002.…”

“…However, closure of small and inefficient power plants stopped completely from 2003 to 2004, due to the power supply shortages experienced in China at that time [37]. In addition, closing of small plants with outdated capacity was again accelerated from 2005, showing the average growth rate of closure capacity of 115% from 2005 to 2008, as reported by [37]. Therefore, it can be inferred that the annual fluctuations in the CO 2 emission coefficient effect (∆CO2 COEFF ) were partly driven by the small plant closures which had been implemented since 1999.…”

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“…There have been significant achievements in this area resulting from the implementation of a number of measures during earlier previous FYPs [35,36]. These include optimization and adjustment of energy and industrial structures to reduce emissions (structure emission reduction), implementation of key energy-saving emission reduction projects (project emission reduction), emissions reduction management in key industries (management emission reduction), technology development and application, eco-industrial park construction, and circular economy development.…”