China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David; Khanna, Nina; Ke, Jing; McNeil, Michael A.; Levine, Mark

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.065

Cited by 206 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 9 publications

(9 reference statements)

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“…Looking at the long term, by 2050, China's total energy demand will reach 5.4 × 10 9 t/y. However, the domestic annual capacity of production of coal, oil, and natural gas will be 2.5 × 10 9 t/y to 2.7 × 10 9 t/y, 1 × 10 8 t/y to 2 × 10 8 t/y, and 120 × 10 9 m 3 /y to 140 × 10 9 m 3 /y, respectively, so there will be a large supply-demand gap [92].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost

Пин

Zhang

2018

Energies

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Abstract:Energy supply security is a significant part of China's security, directly influencing national security and economic and social sustainability. To ensure both China's present and the future energy supply, it is essential to evaluate and forecast the energy supply level. However, forecasting the energy supply security level is difficult because energy supply security is dynamic, many factors affect it and there is a lack of accurate and comprehensive data. Therefore, based on previous studies and according to the characteristics of energy supply and the social development of China, first, the authors apply a comprehensive evaluation method to quantify the energy supply security. Second, based on the ARIMA-XGBoost hybrid model, the authors create two novel approaches for forecasting the energy supply security level of China. The authors find that: (1) energy supply security is dynamic, and green development has become the theme of China's energy development. The energy industry urgently needs to provide more high-quality ecological energy products to meet the people's desire for a beautiful ecological environment; (2) since the mean absolute percentage errors are below 4.5% when forecasting the energy supply security indicators, the ARIMA-XGBoost hybrid model is more accurate for forecasting China's energy supply security level and (3) the security level of China's energy supply has developed periodic features; the ESSI can improve by about 0.2 every five years, but, due to the low starting point and multiple types of constraints, it is difficult to reach the safety level in a short time.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost

Пин

Zhang

2018

Energies

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“…The stock of light-duty vehicles will increase by about eight times from 2011 to 2050, exceeding the US level by as early as 2022 (Huo & Wang, 2012). Consequently, building and transport energy consumption is expected to keep increasing until 2050 (Xiao, Wei, & Wang, 2014;Zhou, Fridley et al, 2013).…”

Section: Shifting Sectoral Importancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cement and steel production, which is triggered by large-scale construction, is thus likely to peak sometime between 2015 and 2020 (Ke, Zheng, Fridley, Price, & Zhou, 2012;Zhou, Kyle et al, 2013). As a result, China's industrial energy consumption is likely to peak before 2040 or even as early as 2030 (Zhou, Fridley et al, 2013;Zhou, Kyle et al, 2013).…”

Section: Shifting Sectoral Importancementioning

confidence: 99%

China's sectoral strategies in energy conservation and carbon mitigation

2015

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This article reviews China's energy and climate strategies in the electric power, industrial, building, and transport sectors. These four sectors account for about three-quarters of China's total energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions. We identify major gaps in China's energy and climate polices based on the status quo: first, command-and-control policies not only are costly, but also cannot accommodate the transition of energy consumption from production sectors to consumption sectors; second, unsmooth deployment of renewable energy poses challenges for decarbonizing China's electricity system. To close these gaps, we suggest two policy priorities: a carbon market to achieve cost-effective emission reduction, and a Renewable Quota System to promote the utilization of renewable energy. Challenges associated with these policies are discussed. Furthermore, we suggest that a sectoral approach can serve as a first step for China to make meaningful commitments under a prospective international climate treaty. In particular, the cement, steel, and aluminium sectors can be among the first groups to join this sectoral approach. Policy relevanceWe argue that China's sectoral climate policies should prioritize both the development of a carbon market to achieve costeffective carbon mitigation and the improvement of renewable supporting polices to foster long-term renewable technology investment. However, to fully explore the advantages of a carbon market, we suggest that more stringent emission caps should be set at the national level. In addition, the carbon market and existing energy and climate policies should be carefully harmonized. In particular, the overlaps between existing command-and-control mitigation polices and the carbon market should be reduced to improve cost-effectiveness. In parallel with a carbon market, we suggest a second-best policy, the Renewable Quota System, as a supplement to the carbon market to foster green technology development and to create preconditions for a more stringent cap. At the international level, a sectoral approach can serve as a first step for China to make meaningful commitments under a prospective international climate treaty. In particular, the cement, steel, and aluminium sectors can be among the first group to join this sectoral approach.

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“…Referencing the studies from the International Energy Agency (IEA), China Energy Research Institute (ERI), and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), various scenarios are drawn to clear the long-term trajectories of China's energy and carbon emissions to 2050 [12].…”

Section: E Responses To and Rewards Of A Great Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathway for China’s Green Energy Growth: A Long-Term Strategic Perspective

Wang¹,

Chun-you²,

Nathwani³

2015

JOCET

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Abstract-China, the largest populous country, energy consumer, and overall CO 2 emitter in the world, is facing dual pressure arising from challenges both at home and from abroad to become sustainable society. To address the "multi-lemma" of economic prosperity, energy security, social development, and ecological prudence, China is in desperate need of a green growth strategy. One approach is to focus on the energy sector to transition to a Green, Reliable, Effective, Affordable, and Thrifty (GREAT) energy system to create sustainable the economic opportunities but reduce environmental pressures at the same time. We describe here an analytical framework that provides a long-term comprehensive g policy to support the GREAT energy scheme.

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China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

Cited by 206 publications

References 9 publications

A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost

A New Hybrid Method for China’s Energy Supply Security Forecasting Based on ARIMA and XGBoost

China's sectoral strategies in energy conservation and carbon mitigation

Pathway for China’s Green Energy Growth: A Long-Term Strategic Perspective

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