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As more no-take marine reserves are established, the importance of evaluating effectiveness retrospectively is growing. This paper adapts methods from program evaluation to quantify the effects of establishing a marine reserve on fisheries using fishery-dependent data. The approach analyzes the effects of a policy at the individual vessel level and accommodates the coarse spatial resolution of fishing logbooks. It illuminates implicit assumptions in previous retrospective analyses of marine reserves that are unlikely to hold for large-scale fisheries. We illustrate the empirical model with an application to the Gulf of Mexico reef-fish fishery. Isolating the effects of reserves requires a full accounting of multiple gear production technologies, heterogeneity in vessel captain skill, spatial heterogeneity of fish stocks, seasonal patterns in abundance, the effects of coexisting management policies, and the possibility that the harvest sector anticipates reserve establishment. We find that the effect of two recently established marine reserves on catch is negative and trending downward, though the reserves have only been in place for 4.5 years.

Background The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) remains high worldwide. Current strategies will not eradicate TB by 2035; instead, by 2182 is more likely. Therefore, it is urgent that new risk factors be identified. Methods An ecological study was conducted in 340 prefectures in China from 2005 to 2015. The spatial distribution of TB incidence was shown by clustering and hotspot analysis. The relationship between the distribution patterns and six meteorological factors was evaluated by the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Results During the 11 years of the study period, TB incidence was persistently low in the east and high in the west. Local coefficients from the GWR model showed a positive correlation between TB incidence and yearly average rainfall (AR) but a negative correlation with other meteorological factors. Average relative humidity (ARH) was negatively correlated with the incidence of TB in all prefectures ( p < 0.05). Conclusion Meteorological factors may play an important role in the prevention and control of TB. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4008-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

China has launched seven regional pilots of emission trading scheme (ETS) to limit its carbon emissions. Taking advantage of the variations in the regional ETS pilots across regions and sectors and over time, we employ a difference-in-difference-indifferences (DDD) approach to evaluate the effect of ETS on low-carbon innovation at the firm level. Using patent application data of publicly-listed firms in China between 2003 and 2015, we find that the ETS pilots induced innovation in low-carbon technologies. The more active pilots—measured by carbon price and turnover rate of allowance trading—are associated with more intense low-carbon innovation.