Spatial distribution of tuberculosis and its association with meteorological factors in mainland China

Abstract

Background The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) remains high worldwide. Current strategies will not eradicate TB by 2035; instead, by 2182 is more likely. Therefore, it is urgent that new risk factors be identified. Methods An ecological study was conducted in 340 prefectures in China from 2005 to 2015. The spatial distribution of TB incidence was shown by clustering and hotspot analysis. The relationship between the distribution patterns and six meteorological factors was evaluated by the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Results During the 11 years of the study period, TB incidence was persistently low in the east and high in the west. Local coefficients from the GWR model showed a positive correlation between TB incidence and yearly average rainfall (AR) but a negative correlation with other meteorological factors. Average relative humidity (ARH) was negatively correlated with the incidence of TB in all prefectures ( p < 0.05). Conclusion Meteorological factors may play an important role in the prevention and control of TB. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4008-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effect of ambient temperature on incidence of tuberculosis and effect modification by meteorological factors in Jinan, China during 2012-2015

“…[40] However, meteorological factors may play an important role. Our findings showed that low RH decreased the risk of TB for temperature which was different from Yingjie Zhang's research [41]. In cold temperature situation, the increased RH may create a suitable environment for the growth and reproduction of tuberculosis.…”

The epidemiology of pulmonary tuberculosis in children in Mainland China, 2009–2015

“…Notifications of child PTB only accounted for 0.6% of all notified PTB cases, with the maximum proportion of child TB cases in Tibet (2.85%) and minimum proportion in Jiangsu (0.28%) (online supplementary table 1). Although the incidence of both populations showed a downward trend over the 7 years, the decline in child PTB was more rapid than that in the non-child age PTB group (52.5% vs 21.2%) 9 10. Similar to PTB in the whole population, the spatial distribution of PTB in children showed a high incidence in the west and a low incidence in the east of China (online supplementary figure 1 and figure 3).…”

“…Similar to PTB in the whole population, the spatial distribution of PTB in children showed a high incidence in the west and a low incidence in the east of China (online supplementary figure 1 and figure 3). 9 10 However, the peak period of notified child PTB, when mainly occurring from March to July and covering spring and early summer, appeared later and longer than that of all age PTB 9. Regarding laboratory tests, the positive rates of X-ray abnormality and sputum smear and bacteriology in the children with PTB were lower than those in the ≥15 years age group population (all p values <0.001).…”

“…Similar to the ≥15 years PTB age group, the spatial distribution of PTB in children showed a high incidence in the West and low incidence in the East 9 10. The possible reasons are as follows: a relatively underdeveloped economy, poor medical resources and several outbreaks of TB in schools in the western region 4.…”

Exploring the role of meteorological factors in predicting incident pulmonary tuberculosis: A time-series study in eastern China

“…The possible link between PTB and meteorological factors may be attributed to the between PTB and atmospheric pressure may be related to wind speed, but further exploration is needed [27]. Third, high relative humidity and abundant precipitation can provide an appropriate living environment for M.tb [27,28]. Continuous exposure to dry air may decrease the production of protective mucus on the respiratory tract surface, thereby weakening its resistance to the pathogen [29].…”