ObjectiveTo evaluate epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak that resurged in Yangzhou and to simulate the impact of different control measures at different regional scales.MethodsWe collected personal information from 570 laboratory-confirmed cases in Yangzhou from 28 July to 26 August 2021, and built a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model and an agent-based model.ResultsThe SEIR model showed that for passengers from medium-high risk areas, pre-travel nucleic acid testing within 3 days could limit the total number of infected people in Yangzhou to 50; among elderly persons, a 60% increase in vaccination rates could reduce the estimated infections by 253. The agent-based model showed that when the population density of the chess and card room dropped by 40%, the number of infected people would decrease by 54 within 7 days. A ventilation increase in the chess and card room from 25 to 50% could reduce the total number of infections by 33 within 7 days; increasing the ventilation from 25 to 75% could reduce the total number of infections by 63 within 7 days.ConclusionsThe SEIR model and agent-based model were used to simulate the impact of different control measures at different regional scales successfully. It is possible to provide references for epidemic prevention and control work.

ObjectiveFor assessing the nonlinearity and delayed effect of temperature on incidence of Tuberculosis (TB) and effect modification by meteorology factors, daily data on meteorological factors, air pollutants and incidence were obtained in Jinan, China, from 2012 to 2015.MethodsA distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) combined with quasi-Poisson regression model was employed to assess the nonlinearity and the delayed effect of associations. We further built a series of weather-stratified models categorizing the meteorology factors into two levels to assess the effect modification of the ambient temperature effect. ResultsThe correlation between tuberculosis (TB) cases and daily average temperature (Tmean) was nonlinear with a delayed effect. At the current day (lag 0), the increase of Tmean decreased the risk of TB incidence; over lag 0-70 days, the decrease of low Tmean and the increase of the high Tmean both indicated the increased risk of TB. The cold temperature showed an immediate effect at the current day, with a harvesting effect in the following days. There was no significant harvesting effect in hot effect. Meanwhile, the effect of hot temperature on TB appeared with an about two-week lag and was lower than cold effect. The effect modifications by relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration were observed.ConclusionResults indicate that there was a nonlinear correlation with a harvesting effect between temperature and TB in Jinan, and both cold effect and heat effect exist the delayed effect. Results also pointed to the importance of considering effect modification by meteorological factors in assessing temperature effects on incidence of TB. Which might shed light on the strategy of TB prevention and control.