A Chess and Card Room-Induced COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Agent-Based Simulation in Yangzhou, China

Shen, Shi-Jing; Li, Wenning; Wang, Hua; Zhang, Lin; Ye, Runze; Ma, Ke; Jia, Na; Zhou, Jie; Cui, Xiaoming; Gong, Jianya; Cao, Wu‐Chun

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.915716

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…[21] In Yangzhou City, Jiangsu province, there were 570 confirmed cases of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant from July 28 to August 26, 2021, with 9 severe cases and no deaths. [22] COVID-19 is often associated with lymphocytopenia, [23] and most adults in our study had lymphocytopenia. However, we discovered that the children's lymphocytes did not decline significantly and that some of them increased significantly.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 53%

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Clinical characteristics of the delta variant of COVID-19 in Jingmen, China

et al. 2022

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There has been an epidemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) delta variant in Jingmen, China, and the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of all patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in an epidemic are rarely reported. All the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients diagnosed in Jingmen in August 2021 were enrolled in this study. Epidemiological data and clinical characteristics were analyzed. Of 58 patients (38 male and 20 female), 11 were children. The mean age was 35 years, and the median age was 39 years (range, 1-60 years; interquartile range, 28-51). The infectivity of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant may have increased, but pathogenicity could have decreased significantly. The vast majority of patients had either no symptoms or mild symptoms. Even though the variant virus is highly contagious, control measures have proven effective. Symptoms included fever (53%), cough (48%), headache (6%), runny nose (13%), loss of smell and taste (6%), elevated C-reactive protein (26%), increased neutrophil count (13%), decreased eosinophil count (21%), and elevated mononuclear granulocytes (26%). Thirty-eight of the 47 adults showed lymphocyte decline, but none of the children showed a significant decline, and more than half of them showed an increase. Thirty patients had no pneumonia, 27 patients had mild pneumonia, and only one patient with multiple chronic diseases had severe pneumonia. None of the 11 children had been vaccinated, 10 did not have pneumonia, and 1 had a small lung lesion. The number of new patients disappeared in 15 days after the lockdown of the city.Abbreviations: COVID-19 = the coronavirus disease 2019, SARS-CoV-2 = severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, RT-PCR = real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 53%

“…[ 21 ] In Yangzhou City, Jiangsu province, there were 570 confirmed cases of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant from July 28 to August 26, 2021, with 9 severe cases and no deaths. [ 22 ]…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clinical characteristics of the delta variant of COVID-19 in Jingmen, China

et al. 2022

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“…For example, Jung et al ( 34 ) used a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent parameters determined by machine learning. Only one study (1.7%) focused on an agent-based model constructed from statistical data on buildings and the local population to model individual interactions ( 45 ); however, a number of studies integrated combination analysis models (18.6%, 11/59), including a study by Shen et al which compared results from separate SEIR and agent-based models ( 74 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia

Thakkar,

Spinardi,

Yang

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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IntroductionEpidemiological modeling is widely used to offer insights into the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Asia. We reviewed published computational (mathematical/simulation) models conducted in Asia that assessed impacts of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions against COVID-19 and their implications for vaccination strategy.MethodsA search of the PubMed database for peer-reviewed, published, and accessible articles in English was performed up to November 2022 to capture studies in Asian populations based on computational modeling of outcomes in the COVID-19 pandemic. Extracted data included model type (mechanistic compartmental/agent-based, statistical, both), intervention type (pharmacological, non-pharmacological), and procedures for parameterizing age. Findings are summarized with descriptive statistics and discussed in terms of the evolving COVID-19 situation.ResultsThe literature search identified 378 results, of which 59 met criteria for data extraction. China, Japan, and South Korea accounted for approximately half of studies, with fewer from South and South-East Asia. Mechanistic models were most common, either compartmental (61.0%), agent-based (1.7%), or combination (18.6%) models. Statistical modeling was applied less frequently (11.9%). Pharmacological interventions were examined in 59.3% of studies, and most considered vaccination, except one study of an antiviral treatment. Non-pharmacological interventions were also considered in 84.7% of studies. Infection, hospitalization, and mortality were outcomes in 91.5%, 30.5%, and 30.5% of studies, respectively. Approximately a third of studies accounted for age, including 10 that also examined mortality. Four of these studies emphasized benefits in terms of mortality from prioritizing older adults for vaccination under conditions of a limited supply; however, one study noted potential benefits to infection rates from early vaccination of younger adults. Few studies (5.1%) considered the impact of vaccination among children.ConclusionEarly in the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmacological interventions helped to mitigate the health burden of COVID-19; however, modeling indicates that high population coverage of effective vaccines will complement and reduce reliance on such interventions. Thus, increasing and maintaining immunity levels in populations through regular booster shots, particularly among at-risk and vulnerable groups, including older adults, might help to protect public health. Future modeling efforts should consider new vaccines and alternative therapies alongside an evolving virus in populations with varied vaccination histories.

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“…As a result of infectious diseases being affected by many factors in real life, it is difficult to analyze the development of epidemics in different scenarios in the future. However, the scenario simulation method provides new ideas for the analysis of the development trend of COVID-19 and the decision-making of prevention and control [ 21 , 22 ]. Scenario simulation is a setting method that mimics the real-life scene.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Demand for Nucleic Acid Testing in Different Scenarios of COVID-19 Transmission: A Simulation Study

Wang,

Zhang,

et al. 2024

Infect Dis Ther

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Introduction The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has been recognized as the most severe human infectious disease pandemic in the past century. To enhance our ability to control potential infectious diseases in the future, this study simulated the influence of nucleic acid testing on the transmission of COVID-19 across varied scenarios. Additionally, it assessed the demand for nucleic acid testing under different circumstances, aiming to furnish a decision-making foundation for the implementation of nucleic acid screening measures, the provision of emergency materials, and the allocation of human resources. Methods Considering the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the preventive measures implemented by countries, we explored three distinct levels of epidemic intensity: community transmission, outbreak, and sporadic cases. Integrating the theory of scenario analysis, we formulated six hypothetical epidemic scenarios, each corresponding to possible occurrences during different phases of the pandemic. We developed an improved SEIR model, validated its accuracy using real-world data, and conducted a comprehensive analysis and prediction of COVID-19 infections under these six scenarios. Simultaneously, we assessed the testing resource requirements associated with each scenario. Results We compared the predicted number of infections simulated by the modified SEIR model with the actual reported cases in Israel to validate the model. The root mean square error (RMSE) was 350.09, and the R -squared ( R 2 ) was 0.99, indicating a well-fitted model. Scenario 4 demonstrated the most effective prevention and control outcomes. Strengthening non-pharmaceutical interventions and increasing nucleic acid testing frequency, even under low testing capacity, resulted in a delayed epidemic peak by 78 days. The proportion of undetected cases decreased from 77.83% to 31.21%, and the overall testing demand significantly decreased, meeting maximum demand even with low testing capacity. The initiation of testing influenced case detection probability. Under high testing capacity, increasing testing frequency elevated the detection rate from 36.40% to 77.83%. Nucleic acid screening proved effective in reducing the demand for testing resources under diverse epidemic prevention and control strategies. While effective interventions and nucleic acid screening measures substantially diminished the demand for testing-related resources, varying degrees of insufficient testing capacity may still persist. Conclusions The nucleic acid detection strategy proves effective in promptly identifying and isolating infected individuals, thereby mitigating the infection peak and extending the time to peak. In situations with constrained testing capacity, implementing more stringent measures can notably decrease the number of infections and alleviate resource demands. The improved SEIR...

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A Chess and Card Room-Induced COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Agent-Based Simulation in Yangzhou, China

Cited by 4 publications

References 20 publications

Clinical characteristics of the delta variant of COVID-19 in Jingmen, China

Clinical characteristics of the delta variant of COVID-19 in Jingmen, China

Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia

Evaluating the Demand for Nucleic Acid Testing in Different Scenarios of COVID-19 Transmission: A Simulation Study

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