There is an important mortality effect of heat across Europe. The effect is evident from June through August; it is limited to the first week following temperature excess, with evidence of mortality displacement. There is some suggestion of a higher effect of early season exposures. Acclimatization and individual susceptibility need further investigation as possible explanations for the observed heterogeneity among cities.

Short-term changes in ambient particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters < 10 micro m (PM10) have been associated with short-term fluctuations in mortality or morbidity in many studies. In this study, we tested whether those deaths are just advanced by a few days or weeks using a multicity hierarchical modeling approach for all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular deaths, for all ages and stratifying by age groups, within the APHEA-2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach) project. We fit a Poisson regression and used an unconstrained distributed lag to model the effect of PM10 exposure on deaths up to 40 days after the exposure. In baseline models using PM10 the day of and day before the death, we found that the overall PM10 effect (per 10 micro g/m3) was 0.74% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), -0.17 to 1.66] for respiratory deaths and 0.69% (95% CI, 0.31-1.08) for cardiovascular deaths. In unrestricted distributed lag models, the effect estimates increased to 4.2% (95% CI, 1.08-7.42) for respiratory deaths and to 1.97% (95% CI, 1.38-2.55) for cardiovascular deaths. Our study confirms that most of the effect of air pollution is not simply advanced by a few weeks and that effects persist for more than a month after exposure. The effect size estimate for PM10 doubles when we considered longer-term effects for all deaths and for cardiovascular deaths and becomes five times higher for respiratory deaths. We found similar effects when stratifying by age groups. These larger effects are important for risk assessment.

Although the association between particulate matter and mortality or morbidity is generally accepted, controversy remains about the importance of the association. If it is due solely to the deaths of frail individuals, which are brought forward by only a brief period of time, the public health implications of the association are fewer than if there is an increase in the number of deaths. Recently, other research has addressed the mortality displacement issue in single-city analysis. We analyzed this issue with a distributed lag model in a multicity hierarchic modeling approach, within the Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach (APHEA-2) study. We fit a Poisson regression model and a polynomial distributed lag model with up to 40 days of delay in each city. In the second stage we combined the city-specific results. We found that the overall effect of particulate matter less than 10 microM in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) per 10 microg/m3 for the fourth-degree distributed lag model is a 1.61% increase in daily deaths (95% CI = 1.02-2.20), whereas the mean of PM10 on the same day and the previous day is associated with only a 0.70% increase in deaths (95% CI = 0.43-0.97). This result is unchanged using an unconstrained distributed lag model. Our study confirms that the effects observed in daily time-series studies are not due primarily to short-term mortality displacement. The effect size estimate for airborne particles more than doubles when we consider longer-term effects, which has important implications for risk assessment.

The Air Pollution and Health: a European Approach (APHEA) project is a coordinated study of the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality and hospital admissions using data from 15 European cities, with a wide range of geographic, sociodemographic, climatic, and air quality patterns. The objective of this paper is to summarize the results of the short-term effects of ambient oxidants on daily deaths from all causes (excluding accidents). Within the APHEA project, six cities spanning Central and Western Europe provided data on daily deaths and NO2 and/or O3 levels. The data were analyzed by each center separately following a standardized methodology to ensure comparability of results. Poisson autoregressive models allowing for overdispersion were fitted. Fixed effects models were used to pool the individual regression coefficients when there was no evidence of heterogeneity among the cities and random effects models otherwise. Factors possibly correlated with heterogeneity were also investigated. Significant positive associations were found between daily deaths and both NO2 and O3. Increases of 50 micrograms/m3 in NO2 (1-hour maximum) or O3 (1-hour maximum) were associated with a 1.3% (95% confidence interval 0.9-1.8) and 2.9% (95% confidence interval 1.0-4.9) increase in the daily number of deaths, respectively. Stratified analysis of NO2 effects by low and high levels of black smoke or O3 showed no significant evidence for an interaction within each city. However, there was a tendency for larger effects of NO2 in cities with higher levels of black smoke. The pooled estimate for the O3 effect was only slightly reduced, whereas the one for NO2 was almost halved (although it remained significant) when two pollutant models including black smoke were applied. The internal validity (consistency across cities) as well as the external validity (similarities with other published studies) of our results on the O3 effect support the hypothesis of a causal relation between O3 and all cause daily mortality. However, the short-term effects of NO2 on mortality may be confounded by other vehicle-derived pollutants. Thus, the issue of independent NO2 effects requires additional investigation.

Indices of prevalence obtained in the EZOP Poland study differ from the indices of prevalence of mental disorders described earlier in other countries. Lower values were found in Poland for affective disorders and some anxiety disorders. Only alcohol abuse was diagnosed more often than in other studies using similar methods except Ukraine, where this disorder was diagnosed with similar frequency.

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

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BackgroundEpidemiological studies on the association between maternal exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and fetal growth alteration report inconsistent findings which weights in favor of additional studies.MethodsBlood samples were collected from interviewed pregnant women in Greenland (572), Kharkiv (611) and Warsaw (258) and were analyzed for CB-153 and p,p'-DDE by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Data on birth weight, gestational age and preterm birth were obtained for 1322 singleton live births. We examined the association between natural log-transformed serum POPs concentration and birth weight and gestational age using multiple linear regression and the association with prematurity using logistic regression controlling for potential confounding factors.ResultsThe median serum concentrations of CB-153 and p,p'-DDE were for Inuit mothers 105.6 and 298.9, for Kharkiv mothers 27.0 and 645.4 and for Warsaw mothers 10.7 and 365.2 ng/g lipids, respectively. Increase in CB-153 concentration by one unit on the log scale in Inuit mothers serum was associated with significant decrease in infant birth weight of -59 g and gestational age by -0.2 week. Decreases observed in the cohorts in Kharkiv (-10 g and -0.1 week) and in Warsaw (-49 g and -0.2 week) were not statistically significant. Increase in p,p'-DDE concentration by one unit on the log scale was associated with a statistically significant decrease in infant birth weight of -39.4 g and -104.3 g and shortening of gestational age of -0.2 week and -0.6 week in the Inuit and Warsaw cohorts, respectively. In the Kharkiv cohort decrease in birth weight (-30.5 g) was not significant, however a shortening of gestational age of -0.2 week per increase in p,p'-DDE concentration by one unit on the log scale was of the borderline significance. There was no significant association between CB-153 and p,p'-DDE concentrations and risk of preterm birth however, in all cohorts the odds ratio was above 1.ConclusionsIn utero exposure to POPs may reduce birth weight and gestational age of newborns however, new insights as to why results vary across studies were not apparent.