Notices 1 Effective January 2007, the Discussion Paper series within each division and the Director General's Office of IFPRI were merged into one IFPRI-wide Discussion Paper series. The new series begins with number 00689, reflecting the prior publication of 688 discussion papers within the dispersed series. The earlier series are available on IFPRI's website at http://www.ifpri.org/publications/results/taxonomy%3A468. 2 IFPRI Discussion Papers contain preliminary material and research results. They have been peer reviewed, but have not been subject to a formal external review via IFPRI's Publications Review Committee. They are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment; any opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the policies or opinions of IFPRI.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infection is generally correlated with individual cattle’s age, sex, body condition, and with husbandry practices such as herd composition, cattle movement, herd size, production system and proximity to wildlife—including bTB maintenance hosts. We tested the correlation between those factors and the prevalence of bTB, which is endemic in Ethiopia’s highland cattle, in the Afar Region and Awash National Park between November 2013 and April 2015. A total of 2550 cattle from 102 herds were tested for bTB presence using the comparative intradermal tuberculin test (CITT). Data on herd structure, herd movement, management and production system, livestock transfer, and contact with wildlife were collected using semi-structured interviews with cattle herders and herd owners. The individual overall prevalence of cattle bTB was 5.5%, with a herd prevalence of 46%. Generalized Linear Mixed Models with a random herd-effect were used to analyse risk factors of cattle reactors within each herd. The older the age of the cattle and the lower the body condition the higher the chance of a positive bTB test result, but sex, lactation status and reproductive status were not correlated with bTB status. At herd level, General Linear Models showed that pastoral production systems with transhumant herds had a higher bTB prevalence than sedentary herds. A model averaging analysis identified herd size, contact with wildlife, and the interaction of herd size and contact with wildlife as significant risk factors for bTB prevalence in cattle. A subsequent Structural Equation Model showed that the probability of contact with wildlife was influenced by herd size, through herd movement. Larger herds moved more and grazed in larger areas, hence the probability of grazing in an area with wildlife and contact with either infected cattle or infected wildlife hosts increased, enhancing the chances for bTB infection. Therefore, future bTB control strategies in cattle in pastoral areas should consider herd size and movement as important risk factors.

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This study examined the use of the household dietary diversity score (HDDS) to assess household nutrient adequacy in Ethiopia. It also examined the correlates of HDDS following the food systems framework. Results show that the average nutrient consumption in Ethiopia varies by place of residence and by income profile, where households in urban areas and those in the higher income quintiles rank favorably. Among 13 nutrients under study, we found nutrient inadequacy for fat, calcium, zinc, riboflavin, niacin, folate, vitamin C and vitamin A ranging between 46% and 89%, and the prevalence of inadequacy for vitamin B12 to be up to 100%. Econometric results showed that HDDS is a strong predictor of a household's mean probability of nutrient adequacy (MPA), and that an HDDS of 10 is the minimum threshold at which HDDS can improve household MPA. We found suggestive evidence within the food systems that improving household-incomes, access to health and transport services are beneficial to improve HDDS and nutrient consumption in Ethiopia.

Despite some improvements in recent years, poverty and food insecurity remain widespread and the main challenges in Ethiopia. Much of the empirical literature focuses on identifying the resource-related constraints for farmers to achieve food security and move out of poverty, with little attention paid to 'internal' or psychological factors such as aspirations. Using individual and household data collected in rural Ethiopia, we examined if aspirations were strongly associated with well-being outcomes, in our case food security, as posited in the theoretical framework of aspirations failure. We found that aspirations of the household head were positively and strongly associated with various triangulating measures of household food security including per-capita calorie consumption, the food consumption score (FCS), the household dietary diversity score (HDDS), and negatively associated with the household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS). In contrast, results suggest that the aspirations of the spouse of the household head are negatively associated with per-capita calorie consumption and FCS. We discuss the channels through which aspirations may affect food security and the avenues for future research.

Previous studies in Nigeria examined food and nutrition security mainly using anthropometric indicators, total calorie intake, or the household dietary diversity score (HDDS). However, recent evidence on nutrient and dietary gaps, especially from nationally representative surveys, is weak. This study contributes by examining factors influencing household mean nutrient adequacy and HDDS with focus on components of food systems in Nigeria. Based on the 2015/16 Nigeria General Household Survey, we found that fruits and animal source foods were the least consumed food groups. Yet, these food groups seem to be the main sources of difference in HDDS and were strongly associated with the mean probability of nutrient adequacy, given covariates. Among 11 nutrients under study, large shortfalls were observed in consumption of iron, vitamin B12, and riboflavin with probability of adequacy being 0.2 or below, followed by niacin, vitamin C, and zinc with corresponding probability of adequacy ranged between 0.48 and 0.58. Further, results suggested that mobile phone ownership by the household head, household’s access to electricity, improved sources of water for household consumption, and percent of the community with improved sanitation were strongly associated with HDDS. Heterogeneities in food groups and nutrient consumption and food system drivers are discussed.

This study examines the cost and affordability of healthy diets in Nigeria. Using the 2015/16 and 2018/19 waves of Nigeria General Household Surveys, we find that, generally, the least-cost options to meet dietary recommendations for vegetables, dairy, and protein-rich foods are more expensive to meet than that of other food groups. Despite improvements during the survey years, the challenges of affordability of healthy diets appear more pronounced in rural than urban, among poorest household groups, and in northern than southern Nigeria. Results suggest that it will be more expensive to meet the dietary recommendation for dairy foods if priority will be given for food systems sustainability over concerns for food preferences of the households. It will however be cheaper to achieve dietary recommendations for vegetables, fruits and starchy staples even when households give more consideration to food systems sustainability than tastes and preferences in their choice of healthy foods. Relative affordability of protein-rich foods are less affected by whether (or not) tastes/preferences or food systems sustainability drives healthy food choices. Key implication is that interventions targeting on affordability of healthy diets should give greater attention to the poorest of the poor, to rural than urban, and to northern than southern Nigeria. Implications relevant for research, policy, and other actors that focus on transformation of the food systems toward achieving healthier diets in a sustainable food systems are discussed.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractThis paper identifies the effect of aspirations on the adoption of agricultural innovations in the context of rural Ethiopia. While most studies on agricultural innovations have focused on identifying observable and resource-related deprivations or 'external' constraints, a related stream of literature suggests that 'internal' constraints, such as the lack of aspirations, could reinforce external constraints and lead to self-sustaining poverty traps. Since both aspirations and the adoption of innovations are forward-looking, they are likely to be intimately linked. Aspirations are motivators that can enhance innovations or their adoption not only in their own right but also through their determinants, including self-efficacy, locus of control and other internal traits that may be unobserved. This implies that aspirations may affect innovations through multiple channels and hence may be endogenous. On the other hand, aspirations are also affected by a person's level of achievement, implying that aspirations and innovations are simultaneously determined. To identify the effect of aspirations on the adoption of agricultural innovations, we conducted both plot-level and household-level analysis using purposely collected data from households in rural Ethiopia. Using econometric strategies that account for the endogenous nature of aspirations, we found that a narrow or a very wide gap between aspirations and achievement in a farming household is strongly associated with low levels of innovativeness and low adoption rate of innovation products such as chemical fertilizers.