Notices 1 Effective January 2007, the Discussion Paper series within each division and the Director General's Office of IFPRI were merged into one IFPRI-wide Discussion Paper series. The new series begins with number 00689, reflecting the prior publication of 688 discussion papers within the dispersed series. The earlier series are available on IFPRI's website at http://www.ifpri.org/publications/results/taxonomy%3A468. 2 IFPRI Discussion Papers contain preliminary material and research results. They have been peer reviewed, but have not been subject to a formal external review via IFPRI's Publications Review Committee. They are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment; any opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the policies or opinions of IFPRI.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infection is generally correlated with individual cattle’s age, sex, body condition, and with husbandry practices such as herd composition, cattle movement, herd size, production system and proximity to wildlife—including bTB maintenance hosts. We tested the correlation between those factors and the prevalence of bTB, which is endemic in Ethiopia’s highland cattle, in the Afar Region and Awash National Park between November 2013 and April 2015. A total of 2550 cattle from 102 herds were tested for bTB presence using the comparative intradermal tuberculin test (CITT). Data on herd structure, herd movement, management and production system, livestock transfer, and contact with wildlife were collected using semi-structured interviews with cattle herders and herd owners. The individual overall prevalence of cattle bTB was 5.5%, with a herd prevalence of 46%. Generalized Linear Mixed Models with a random herd-effect were used to analyse risk factors of cattle reactors within each herd. The older the age of the cattle and the lower the body condition the higher the chance of a positive bTB test result, but sex, lactation status and reproductive status were not correlated with bTB status. At herd level, General Linear Models showed that pastoral production systems with transhumant herds had a higher bTB prevalence than sedentary herds. A model averaging analysis identified herd size, contact with wildlife, and the interaction of herd size and contact with wildlife as significant risk factors for bTB prevalence in cattle. A subsequent Structural Equation Model showed that the probability of contact with wildlife was influenced by herd size, through herd movement. Larger herds moved more and grazed in larger areas, hence the probability of grazing in an area with wildlife and contact with either infected cattle or infected wildlife hosts increased, enhancing the chances for bTB infection. Therefore, future bTB control strategies in cattle in pastoral areas should consider herd size and movement as important risk factors.

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This study examined the use of the household dietary diversity score (HDDS) to assess household nutrient adequacy in Ethiopia. It also examined the correlates of HDDS following the food systems framework. Results show that the average nutrient consumption in Ethiopia varies by place of residence and by income profile, where households in urban areas and those in the higher income quintiles rank favorably. Among 13 nutrients under study, we found nutrient inadequacy for fat, calcium, zinc, riboflavin, niacin, folate, vitamin C and vitamin A ranging between 46% and 89%, and the prevalence of inadequacy for vitamin B12 to be up to 100%. Econometric results showed that HDDS is a strong predictor of a household's mean probability of nutrient adequacy (MPA), and that an HDDS of 10 is the minimum threshold at which HDDS can improve household MPA. We found suggestive evidence within the food systems that improving household-incomes, access to health and transport services are beneficial to improve HDDS and nutrient consumption in Ethiopia.

Despite some improvements in recent years, poverty and food insecurity remain widespread and the main challenges in Ethiopia. Much of the empirical literature focuses on identifying the resource-related constraints for farmers to achieve food security and move out of poverty, with little attention paid to 'internal' or psychological factors such as aspirations. Using individual and household data collected in rural Ethiopia, we examined if aspirations were strongly associated with well-being outcomes, in our case food security, as posited in the theoretical framework of aspirations failure. We found that aspirations of the household head were positively and strongly associated with various triangulating measures of household food security including per-capita calorie consumption, the food consumption score (FCS), the household dietary diversity score (HDDS), and negatively associated with the household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS). In contrast, results suggest that the aspirations of the spouse of the household head are negatively associated with per-capita calorie consumption and FCS. We discuss the channels through which aspirations may affect food security and the avenues for future research.