Выполнено математическое моделирование величины и структуры человеческого капитала РФ. Построен прогноз его динамики до 2025 г. с использованием двумерного уравнения переноса, в котором учтены время и возраст демографических элементов, а также прогнозные объемы бюджетных и частных инвестиций в человеческий капитал, полученные по многослойной нейросетевой модели. Построенные прогнозы удовлетворяют заданной точности.
This paper presents a programming and computing suite which comprises regional socio-economic parameters database (gross regional product, physical capital, human capital and their investment volume), an analytical subsystem which renders mathematical models of parameters’ analysis and forecasting, as well as visual representation unit of modeling and forecasting results. In view of the results, a system research report is built, providing information on socio-economic condition of the region. The calculations are performed by the example of the Udmurt Republic.
The article presents a mathematical model for optimizing traffic flows in an urban environment based on a stochastic approach. It allows to optimize traffic flows using a genetic algorithm by changing the phases of traffic lights operation. An exponential law of distribution of the generation of cars at the input points of the transport network has been established. The relationship between the intensity of servicing the traffic flow and the time of the green signal of the traffic light is revealed. Practical calculations have confirmed the applicability of the optimization model in traffic management.
The paper is presented to the simulation of traffic flows in conditions of traffic light regulation. A simulation multi-agent model of traffic flows was developed, which includes three agents: a car, a traffic light, a generator. A computational algorithm for the movement of vehicles for imitating the movement of vehicles along the driving lanes and its behavior at the intersection was developed. The simulation multi-agent model and the computational algorithm are implemented in the form of an intelligent analytical system that includes a database designed in the MS SQL DBMS environment, as well as a visualization module. During the simulation of traffic flows in the system, the required output parameters of the model are fixed. By simulation tools one of the problematic road sections of the city of Izhevsk was built, including a network of intersections of 10 years of October Street, Udmurtskaya Street, Pushkinskaya Street. The developed simulation model allows calculating the indicators of the average queue length at different times of the day, taking into account the intensity of input traffic flows. Thus, graphs of the dynamics of changes in the average queue length can be obtained and, on their basis, the time periods of congestion occurrence are determined. For example, during the simulation of the operation of a section of the transport network of the city of Izhevsk, it was established that there are two time periods for the occurrence of traffic congestion: from 7:00-9:00 AM and 5:00-7:00 PM, in which the indicator of the maximum queue length reaches 40 cars.
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