Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data from 25 sites in the water-limited Southwest region of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100-1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2-25°C, and records of 3-10 years (150 site-years in total). Annual fluxes were integrated using site-specific ecohydrologic years to group precipitation with resulting ecosystem exchanges. We found a wide range of carbon sink/source function, with mean annual net ecosystem production (NEP) varying from -350 to +330 gCm across sites with diverse vegetation types, contrasting with the more constant sink typically measured in mesic ecosystems. In this region, only forest-dominated sites were consistent carbon sinks. Interannual variability of NEP, gross ecosystem production (GEP), and ecosystem respiration (R ) was larger than for mesic regions, and half the sites switched between functioning as C sinks/C sources in wet/dry years. The sites demonstrated coherent responses of GEP and NEP to anomalies in annual evapotranspiration (ET), used here as a proxy for annually available water after hydrologic losses. Notably, GEP and R were negatively related to temperature, both interannually within site and spatially across sites, in contrast to positive temperature effects commonly reported for mesic ecosystems. Models based on MODIS satellite observations matched the cross-site spatial pattern in mean annual GEP but consistently underestimated mean annual ET by ~50%. Importantly, the MODIS-based models captured only 20-30% of interannual variation magnitude. These results suggest the contribution of this dryland region to variability of regional to global CO exchange may be up to 3-5 times larger than current estimates.

Terrestrial disturbances are accelerating globally, but their full impact is not quantified because we lack an adequate monitoring system. Remote sensing offers a means to quantify the frequency and extent of disturbances globally. Here, we review the current application of remote sensing to this problem and offer a framework for more systematic analysis in the future. We recommend that any proposed monitoring system should not only detect disturbances, but also be able to: identify the proximate cause(s); integrate a range of spatial scales; and, ideally, incorporate process models to explain the observed patterns and predicted trends in the future. Significant remaining challenges are tied to the ecology of disturbances. To meet these challenges, more effort is required to incorporate ecological principles and understanding into the assessments of disturbance worldwide. Global disturbance detection Changing climate has been linked to an increased rate of vegetation disturbances and mortality, promoting major

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Abstract. Climate change in the western United States has increased the frequency of extreme fire weather events and is projected to increase the area burned by wildfire in the coming decades. This changing fire regime, coupled with increased high-severity fire risk from a legacy of fire exclusion, could destabilize forest carbon (C), decrease net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and consequently reduce the ability of forests to regulate climate through C sequestration. While management options for minimizing the risk of high-severity fire exist, little is known about the longer-term carbon consequences of these actions in the context of continued extreme fire weather events. Our goal was to compare the impacts of extreme wildfire events on carbon stocks and fluxes in a watershed in the Sierra National Forest. We ran simulations to model wildfire under contemporary and extreme fire weather conditions, and test how three management scenarios (no-management, thin-only, thin and maintenance burning) influence fire severity, forest C stocks and fluxes, and wildfire C emissions. We found that the effects of treatment on wildfire under contemporary fire weather were minimal, and management conferred neither significant reduction in fire severity nor increases in C stocks. However, under extreme fire weather, the thin and maintenance burning scenario decreased mean fire severity by 25%, showed significantly greater C stability, and unlike the nomanagement and thin-only management options, the thin and maintenance burning scenario showed no decrease in NEE relative to the contemporary fire weather scenarios. Further, under extreme fire weather conditions, wildfire C emissions were lowest in the thin and maintenance burning scenario, (reduction of 13.7 Mg C/ha over the simulation period) even when taking into account the C costs associated with prescribed burning. Including prescribed burning in thinning operations may be critical to maintaining C stocks and reducing C emissions in the future where extreme fire weather events are more frequent.

Forests provide a broad set of ecosystem services, including climate regulation. Other ecosystem services can be ecosystem dependent and are in part regulated by local‐scale decision‐making. In the southwestern United States, ongoing climate change is exacerbating a legacy of fire‐exclusion that has altered forest structure and increased high‐severity wildfire risk. Management can mitigate this risk by reducing forest density and restoring frequent surface fires, but at the cost of reduced carbon stocks. We sought to quantify the role of management in building adaptive capacity to projected climate and wildfires and the carbon consequences in a forested watershed. We simulated carbon dynamics under projected climate and wildfires and two management scenarios: prioritized and optimized. The prioritized scenario involved thinning and prescribed burning in areas selected by stakeholders to mitigate high‐severity wildfire risk. The optimized scenario used the probability of high‐severity wildfires to locate thinning treatments and increased prescribed fire area burned relative to the prioritized scenario. Both scenarios reduced wildfire severity and significantly increased net photosynthesis relative to no‐management. However, the optimized scenario decreased management‐related losses by 2.4 Mg • C • ha−1 and wildfire emissions by 2.9 Mg • C • ha−1 relative to the prioritized scenario. By decreasing the area thinned and increasing the area burned relative to the prioritized scenario, the optimized scenario halved the time to realize a net carbon benefit relative to no‐management. Given the increasing climatic and disturbance pressures impacting southwestern forests, management will play a critical role in building adaptive capacity and ensuring the continued provision of ecosystem services.