Soil moisture supply and atmospheric demand for water independently limit-and profoundly a ect-vegetation productivity and water use during periods of hydrologic stress [1][2][3][4] . Disentangling the impact of these two drivers on ecosystem carbon and water cycling is di cult because they are often correlated, and experimental tools for manipulating atmospheric demand in the field are lacking. Consequently, the role of atmospheric demand is often not adequately factored into experiments or represented in models 5-7 . Here we show that atmospheric demand limits surface conductance and evapotranspiration to a greater extent than soil moisture in many biomes, including mesic forests that are of particular importance to the terrestrial carbon sink 8,9 . Further, using projections from ten general circulation models, we show that climate change will increase the importance of atmospheric constraints to carbon and water fluxes in all ecosystems. Consequently, atmospheric demand will become increasingly important for vegetation function, accounting for >70% of growing season limitation to surface conductance in mesic temperate forests. Our results suggest that failure to consider the limiting role of atmospheric demand in experimental designs, simulation models and land management strategies will lead to incorrect projections of ecosystem responses to future climate conditions. Ecosystem moisture stress is often characterized by changes in soil water availability 10,11 . Declining soil moisture impedes the movement of water to evaporating sites at the soil or leaf surface 12 , reducing the surface conductance to water vapour (G S )-a key determinant of carbon and water cycling-and thereby evapotranspiration (ET). However, atmospheric demand for water, which is directly related to the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD), also affects G S and ET. Plants close their stomata to prevent excessive water loss when VPD is high [13][14][15][16] and thus, increases in VPD during periods of hydrologic stress represent an independent constraint on plant carbon uptake and water use in ecosystems.While the plant physiological community has long recognized the critical role of VPD in determining plant functioning, VPD is often overlooked in many fields of hydrologic and climate science. For example, precipitation manipulation experiments are frequently used to draw conclusions about ecosystem response to drought stress, even though VPD is unaffected by precipitation manipulation 10 . Some terrestrial ecosystem and ecohydrological models do not permit stomatal conductance to vary with atmospheric demand 5,11 . Many models designed to capture these impacts rely on empirical parameterizations for soil moisture and VPD stress that promote compensating effects and model equifinality 5 , and/or use relative humidity instead of VPD as the primary driver, with significant consequences for projections of

The FLUXNET2015 dataset provides ecosystem-scale data on CO 2 , water, and energy exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere, and other meteorological and biological measurements, from 212 sites around the globe (over 1500 site-years, up to and including year 2014). These sites, independently managed and operated, voluntarily contributed their data to create global datasets. Data were quality controlled and processed using uniform methods, to improve consistency and intercomparability across sites. The dataset is already being used in a number of applications, including ecophysiology studies, remote sensing studies, and development of ecosystem and Earth system models. FLUXNET2015 includes derived-data products, such as gap-filled time series, ecosystem respiration and photosynthetic uptake estimates, estimation of uncertainties, and metadata about the measurements, presented for the first time in this paper. In addition, 206 of these sites are for the first time distributed under a Creative Commons (CC-BY 4.0) license. This paper details this enhanced dataset and the processing methods, now made available as open-source codes, making the dataset more accessible, transparent, and reproducible.

Soil moisture content on a horizontal scale of hectometers and at depths of decimeters can be inferred from measurements of low‐energy cosmic‐ray neutrons that are generated within soil, moderated mainly by hydrogen atoms, and diffused back to the atmosphere. These neutrons are sensitive to water content changes, but largely insensitive to variations in soil chemistry, and their intensity above the surface is inversely correlated with hydrogen content of the soil. The measurement with a portable neutron detector placed a few meters above the ground takes minutes to hours, permitting high‐resolution, long‐term monitoring of undisturbed soil moisture conditions. The large footprint makes the method suitable for weather and short‐term climate forecast initialization and for calibration of satellite sensors, and the measurement depth makes the probe ideal for studies of plant/soil interaction and atmosphere/soil exchange.

Increases in the abundance or density of woody plants in historically semiarid and arid grassland ecosystems have important ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic implications. Using a simplified water‐balance model, we propose a framework for conceptualizing how woody plant encroachment is likely to affect components of the water cycle within these ecosystems. We focus in particular on streamflow and the partitioning of evapotranspiration into evaporation and transpiration. On the basis of this framework, we suggest that streamflow and evaporation processes are affected by woody plant encroachment in different ways, depending on the degree and seasonality of aridity and the availability of subsurface water. Differences in landscape physiography, climate, and runoff mechanisms mediate the influence of woody plants on hydrological processes. Streamflow is expected to decline as a result of woody plant encroachment in landscapes dominated by subsurface flow regimes. Similarly, encroachment of woody plants can be expected to produce an increase in the fractional contribution of bare soil evaporation to evapotranspiration in semiarid ecosystems, whereas such shifts may be small or negligible in both subhumid and arid ecosystems. This framework for considering the effects of woody plant encroachment highlights important ecological and hydrological interactions that serve as a basis for predicting other ecological aspects of vegetation change—such as potential changes in carbon cycling within an ecosystem. In locations where woody plant encroachment results in increased plant transpiration and concurrently the availability of soil water is reduced, increased accumulation of carbon in soils emerges as one prediction. Thus, explicitly considering the ecohydrological linkages associated with vegetation change provides needed information on the consequences of woody plant encroachment on water yield, carbon cycling, and other processes.