Abstract:Abstract. Climate change in the western United States has increased the frequency of extreme fire weather events and is projected to increase the area burned by wildfire in the coming decades. This changing fire regime, coupled with increased high-severity fire risk from a legacy of fire exclusion, could destabilize forest carbon (C), decrease net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and consequently reduce the ability of forests to regulate climate through C sequestration. While management options for minimizing the ris… Show more
“…Although reducing wildfire emissions requires repeated atmospheric C emissions from more frequent prescribed fires (Hurteau ; Krofcheck et al . ), prescribed fire emissions are smaller and we found support for our hypothesis that large‐scale treatments will lower fire severity and reduce wildfire emissions relative to the control (Figures and ). Inclusive of emissions from repeated prescribed fire, our large‐scale restoration treatments reduced fire emissions by an average of 0.07–0.09 Mg C ha −1 yr −1 over the 90‐year simulation, with the cumulative amount of avoided C emissions across the entire Sierra Nevada equaling 24% of California's 2020 emission limit (116 Tg; California Assembly Bill 32).…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 79%
“…; Krofcheck et al . ). The temporal distribution of C losses demonstrated that large‐scale restoration treatments may initially incur greater C loss from the system, with the size of this near‐term C cost being a function of implementation timing (Figure ).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…() and Krofcheck et al . (). The thinning and prescribed fire treatments were designed to remove a greater proportion of the youngest cohorts and shift the age distribution toward older cohorts.…”
Changing climate and increasing area burned pose a challenge to forest carbon (C) storage, which is compounded by an elevated risk of high‐severity wildfire due to long‐term fire suppression in the western US. Restoration treatments that reduce tree density and reintroduce surface fire are effective at moderating fire effects and may help build adaptive capacity to changing environmental conditions. However, treatment implementation has been slow and spatially limited relative to the extent of the area affected by fire suppression. Using model simulations, we quantified how large‐scale restoration treatments in frequent‐fire forest types would influence C outcomes in the Sierra Nevada mountain range under projected climate–wildfire interactions. Our results indicate that large‐scale restoration treatments are an effective means of reducing fire hazard and increasing C storage and stability under future climate and wildfire conditions. The effects of implementation timing suggest that accelerated implementation of large‐scale restoration treatments may confer greater C‐storage benefits, supporting California's efforts to combat climate change.
“…Although reducing wildfire emissions requires repeated atmospheric C emissions from more frequent prescribed fires (Hurteau ; Krofcheck et al . ), prescribed fire emissions are smaller and we found support for our hypothesis that large‐scale treatments will lower fire severity and reduce wildfire emissions relative to the control (Figures and ). Inclusive of emissions from repeated prescribed fire, our large‐scale restoration treatments reduced fire emissions by an average of 0.07–0.09 Mg C ha −1 yr −1 over the 90‐year simulation, with the cumulative amount of avoided C emissions across the entire Sierra Nevada equaling 24% of California's 2020 emission limit (116 Tg; California Assembly Bill 32).…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 79%
“…; Krofcheck et al . ). The temporal distribution of C losses demonstrated that large‐scale restoration treatments may initially incur greater C loss from the system, with the size of this near‐term C cost being a function of implementation timing (Figure ).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…() and Krofcheck et al . (). The thinning and prescribed fire treatments were designed to remove a greater proportion of the youngest cohorts and shift the age distribution toward older cohorts.…”
Changing climate and increasing area burned pose a challenge to forest carbon (C) storage, which is compounded by an elevated risk of high‐severity wildfire due to long‐term fire suppression in the western US. Restoration treatments that reduce tree density and reintroduce surface fire are effective at moderating fire effects and may help build adaptive capacity to changing environmental conditions. However, treatment implementation has been slow and spatially limited relative to the extent of the area affected by fire suppression. Using model simulations, we quantified how large‐scale restoration treatments in frequent‐fire forest types would influence C outcomes in the Sierra Nevada mountain range under projected climate–wildfire interactions. Our results indicate that large‐scale restoration treatments are an effective means of reducing fire hazard and increasing C storage and stability under future climate and wildfire conditions. The effects of implementation timing suggest that accelerated implementation of large‐scale restoration treatments may confer greater C‐storage benefits, supporting California's efforts to combat climate change.
“…❖ www.esajournals.org 4 November 2019 ❖ Volume 10(11) ❖ Article e02934 forest succession and interactions with fire, harvest, wind, and insects (Scheller et al 2008, Duveneck et al 2014, Kretchun et al 2016, Krofcheck et al 2017, Lucash et al 2017. LANDIS-II uses the life-history traits of tree and shrub species, along with soil and climate data, to simulate succession and responses to disturbances over time.…”
Climate warming in the western United States is causing changes to the wildfire regime in mixed-conifer forests. Rising temperatures, longer fire seasons, increased drought, as well as fire suppression and changes in land use, have led to greater and more severe wildfire activity, all contributing to altered forest composition over the past century. To understand future interactions among climate, wildfire, and vegetation in a fire-prone landscape in the southern Blue Mountains of central Oregon, we used a spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest and fire dynamics under current management practices and two projected climate scenarios. The results suggest that wildfires will become more frequent, more extensive, and more severe under projected climate than contemporary climate. Furthermore, projected climate change generated a 20% increase in the number of extreme fire years (years with at least 40,000 ha burned). This caused large shifts in tree species composition, characterized by a decline in the sub-alpine species (Abies lasiocarpa, Picea engelmannii, Pinus albicaulis) and increases in lowerelevation species (Pinus ponderosa, Abies grandis), resulting in forest homogenization across the elevational gradient. This modeling study suggests that climate-driven increases in fire activity and severity will make high-elevation species vulnerable to decline and will reduce landscape heterogeneity. These results underscore the need for forest managers to actively consider climate change, altered fire regimes, and projected declines in sub-alpine species in their long-term management plans.
“…The NECN extension implements succession with above-and belowground carbon and nitrogen and simulates the regeneration and growth of vegetation based on age, competition for resources (water, nitrogen, light), and disturbance. Prescribed fires are, however, only currently being simulated within the Biomass Harvest extension , Hurteau 2017, Krofcheck et al 2017, Swanteson-Franz et al 2018. Dead biomass (woody and leaf litter) and soil organic carbon (SOC) are also tracked over time.…”
Forests have a prominent role in carbon sequestration and storage. Climate change and anthropogenic forcing have altered the dominant characteristics of some forested ecosystems through changes to their disturbance regimes, particularly fire. Ecosystems that historically burned frequently, like pinelands in the southeastern United States, risk changes in their structure and function when the fire regime they require is altered. Although the carbon storage potential in an unburned southeastern U.S. forest would be larger, this scenario is unrealistic due to the likelihood of wildfire. Additionally, fire exclusion can have negative consequences on these forests health, biodiversity, and species endemism. There is a need, specifically for the southeast, to estimate carbon and species dynamics based on the differences between various fire regimes, and particularly the differences between prescribed fire and wildfire. These are important factors to consider given that prescribed fire is a common tool used in the southeast, and wildfires are ever more present. Field data from an experimental Pinus palustris (longleaf pine) forest of southwest Georgia were used to parametrize the forest landscape model LANDIS-II. The model simulated how carbon and species dynamics differ under a fire exclusion, a prescribed fire, and multiple wildfire scenarios. All scenarios except fire exclusion resulted in net emissions to the atmosphere, but prescribed fire produced the least carbon emissions from fire and maintained the most stable aboveground biomass compared to wildfire scenarios. Removing fire for approximately a century was necessary to obtain an average stand-level biomass greater than that of prescribed fire and net emissions less than that of prescribed fire. The prescribed fire scenario produced a longleaf pine-dominated forest, the exclusion scenario converted to predominantly oak species Quercus virginiana (live oak), Q. stellata (post oak), and Q. margaretta (sand post oak), while scenarios with intermediate wildfire regimes supported a mix of other fire-facilitator hardwoods and pine species, such as Q. incana (bluejack oak) and Pinus elliotti (slash pine). Overall, this study supports prescribed fire regimes in southeastern U.S. pinelands to both minimize carbon emissions and preserve native biodiversity.
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