Many global transport sector decarbonisation studies assert that it is difficult for the transport sector to decarbonise and to contribute its proportional share to the ambitious climate targets set by the Paris Agreement. We challenge this argument by establishing that deep decarbonisation is possible in the transport sector, through original research that is anchored in a global meta-analysis of long-term transport sector emission pathways from over 500 bottom-up modelling estimates from 81 countries, rather than relying on aggregated regional data and modelling efforts. First, we translate the aspirational 1.5-degree Celsius (1.5DS) target to an indicative 2050 transport sector emission target of 2 GtCO 2 , based on proportional downscaling of existing economy-wide 2DS studies to a transport-specific 1.5DS target. We then compare this with mitigation potential derived from the aggregation of bottom-up estimates for business-as-usual growth and low-carbon scenarios from
In order to meet long‐term climate change mitigation objectives, emissions cuts are required in all regions across the globe and in all sectors, including transport. In financing this effort, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) are until now the only international climate policy instruments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that provide incentives for emissions reductions in developing countries. More recently, the Clean Technology Fund (CTF) was established. In this paper, we show that the impact of these financing instruments on transport has been very limited, due to methodological difficulties, a data‐intensive monitoring process and the limited funding available. We argue that the transport sector is not likely to play a significant role in the continuation of a carbon credit offsetting scheme, unless these methodological requirements are simplified and significantly more funding is available.
In the post‐2012 climate regime, there may be substantial international funding available in addition to existing credit schemes and international funds, which could be channeled through nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs). This can provide new and better opportunities for sustainable transport in developing countries. We propose a framework for NAMAs, including types of policies and measures, measurement, reporting and verification of the actions, and an institutional and financial structure. We conclude that climate funding needs to be aligned closely with domestic and multilateral development finance flows in order to make a difference for sustainable transport.
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