Abstract:Many global transport sector decarbonisation studies assert that it is difficult for the transport sector to decarbonise and to contribute its proportional share to the ambitious climate targets set by the Paris Agreement. We challenge this argument by establishing that deep decarbonisation is possible in the transport sector, through original research that is anchored in a global meta-analysis of long-term transport sector emission pathways from over 500 bottom-up modelling estimates from 81 countries, rather… Show more
“…Gota et al (2018) highlight the need to set long term, ambitious sectoralmitigation targets to decarbonize the transport sector. This includes targets for absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, vehicle CO 2 standards, modal split, technology (e.g., electric vehicles), and renewable energy (e.g., the electrification of transport and the fuel mix).…”
Section: Sectoral Targets and Emission Peaksmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The authors conclude that national performance standards should be significantly improved. Similarly, in the transport sector, Wachsmuth and Duscha (2018) and Gota et al (2018) highlight that stringent fuel-efficiency standards should be put in place to lay the foundations for a meaningfully contribution to the 1.5°C goal.…”
Section: Building Codesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Sonnenschein et al (2018) argue that, in addition to performance standards and carbon pricing, further (mixes of) policy interventions that address behavioral anomalies should be studied (e.g., labelling programs, green defaults). Likewise, Gota et al (2018) stress that current mitigation measures rely heavily on assumptions of behavioral change. Knobloch et al (2018) find that the potential impacts of modeled policy instruments are highly dependent on assumptions of behavioral decision-making (cf.…”
Section: Behavioral Policiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The authors acknowledge that further studies are needed to better understand these trends. Gota et al (2018) provide an extensive analysis of deep decarbonization pathways in the transport sector. Their review covers up to 1500 low-carbon measures in 81 countries, which are grouped into three main categories: (a) Bavoid^measures that aim to decrease the need for transport trips, (b) Bshift^measures that aim to move trips to more efficient modes, and (c) Bimprove^mea-sures that aim to increase the fuel efficiency of vehicles.…”
Section: Transport and Mobilitymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…By their nature, these bottom-up approaches are less concerned with systemic effects (e.g., on the energy supply or wider macroeconomy effects) than IAMs. Gota et al (2018) use a bottom-up approach to analyze the extent to which the transport sector can meet a sector-specific mitigation goal consistent with the 1.5°C target. Relying extensively on available mitigation studies, the authors first translate the 1.5°C target to an indicative 2050 sectoral target (equivalent to 2 GtCO 2 ).…”
The Paris Climate Agreement defined an ambition of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. This has triggered research on stringent emission reduction targets and corresponding mitigation pathways across energy economy and societal systems. Driven by methodological considerations, supply side and carbon dioxide removal options feature prominently in the emerging pathway literature, while much less attention has been given to the role of demand-side approaches. This special issue addresses this gap, and aims to broaden and strengthen the knowledge base in this key research and policy area. This editorial paper synthesizes the special issue's contributions horizontally through three shared themes we identify: policy interventions, demand-side measures, and methodological approaches. The review of articles is supplemented by insights from other relevant literature. Overall, our paper underlines that stringent demand-side policy portfolios are required to drive the pace and direction of deep decarbonization pathways and keep the 1.5°C target within reach. It confirms that insufficient attention has been paid to demand-side measures, which are found to be inextricably linked to supply-side decarbonization and able to complement supply-side measures. The paper also shows that there is an abundance of demand-side measures to limit warming to 1.5°C, but it warns that not all of these options are Bseen^or captured by current quantitative tools or progress indicators, and some remain insufficiently represented in the current policy discourse. Based on the set of papers presented in the special issue, we conclude that demand-side mitigation in line with the 1.5°C goal is possible; however, it remains enormously challenging and dependent on both innovative technologies and policies, and behavioral change. Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires, more than ever, a plurality of methods and integrated behavioral and technology approaches to better support policymaking and resulting policy interventions.
“…Gota et al (2018) highlight the need to set long term, ambitious sectoralmitigation targets to decarbonize the transport sector. This includes targets for absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, vehicle CO 2 standards, modal split, technology (e.g., electric vehicles), and renewable energy (e.g., the electrification of transport and the fuel mix).…”
Section: Sectoral Targets and Emission Peaksmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The authors conclude that national performance standards should be significantly improved. Similarly, in the transport sector, Wachsmuth and Duscha (2018) and Gota et al (2018) highlight that stringent fuel-efficiency standards should be put in place to lay the foundations for a meaningfully contribution to the 1.5°C goal.…”
Section: Building Codesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Sonnenschein et al (2018) argue that, in addition to performance standards and carbon pricing, further (mixes of) policy interventions that address behavioral anomalies should be studied (e.g., labelling programs, green defaults). Likewise, Gota et al (2018) stress that current mitigation measures rely heavily on assumptions of behavioral change. Knobloch et al (2018) find that the potential impacts of modeled policy instruments are highly dependent on assumptions of behavioral decision-making (cf.…”
Section: Behavioral Policiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The authors acknowledge that further studies are needed to better understand these trends. Gota et al (2018) provide an extensive analysis of deep decarbonization pathways in the transport sector. Their review covers up to 1500 low-carbon measures in 81 countries, which are grouped into three main categories: (a) Bavoid^measures that aim to decrease the need for transport trips, (b) Bshift^measures that aim to move trips to more efficient modes, and (c) Bimprove^mea-sures that aim to increase the fuel efficiency of vehicles.…”
Section: Transport and Mobilitymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…By their nature, these bottom-up approaches are less concerned with systemic effects (e.g., on the energy supply or wider macroeconomy effects) than IAMs. Gota et al (2018) use a bottom-up approach to analyze the extent to which the transport sector can meet a sector-specific mitigation goal consistent with the 1.5°C target. Relying extensively on available mitigation studies, the authors first translate the 1.5°C target to an indicative 2050 sectoral target (equivalent to 2 GtCO 2 ).…”
The Paris Climate Agreement defined an ambition of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. This has triggered research on stringent emission reduction targets and corresponding mitigation pathways across energy economy and societal systems. Driven by methodological considerations, supply side and carbon dioxide removal options feature prominently in the emerging pathway literature, while much less attention has been given to the role of demand-side approaches. This special issue addresses this gap, and aims to broaden and strengthen the knowledge base in this key research and policy area. This editorial paper synthesizes the special issue's contributions horizontally through three shared themes we identify: policy interventions, demand-side measures, and methodological approaches. The review of articles is supplemented by insights from other relevant literature. Overall, our paper underlines that stringent demand-side policy portfolios are required to drive the pace and direction of deep decarbonization pathways and keep the 1.5°C target within reach. It confirms that insufficient attention has been paid to demand-side measures, which are found to be inextricably linked to supply-side decarbonization and able to complement supply-side measures. The paper also shows that there is an abundance of demand-side measures to limit warming to 1.5°C, but it warns that not all of these options are Bseen^or captured by current quantitative tools or progress indicators, and some remain insufficiently represented in the current policy discourse. Based on the set of papers presented in the special issue, we conclude that demand-side mitigation in line with the 1.5°C goal is possible; however, it remains enormously challenging and dependent on both innovative technologies and policies, and behavioral change. Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires, more than ever, a plurality of methods and integrated behavioral and technology approaches to better support policymaking and resulting policy interventions.
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