In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit (parroquia, parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of *9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican This article has been previously published in Natural Hazards 64:615-639. For referencing, please use this article.
Information gathered on past flood events is essential for understanding and assessing flood hazards. In this study, we present how citizen science can help to retrieve this information, particularly in areas with scarce or no authoritative measurements of past events. The case study is located in Yeumbeul North (YN), Senegal, where flood impacts represent a growing concern for the local community. This area lacks authoritative records on flood extent and water depth as well as information on the chain of causative factors. We developed a framework using two techniques to retrieve information on past flood events by involving two groups of citizens who were present during the floods. The first technique targeted the part of the citizens' memory that records information on events, recalled through narratives, whereas the second technique focused on scaling past flood event intensities using different parts of the witnesses' bodies. These techniques were used for three events that occurred in 2005, 2009 and 2012. They proved complementary by providing quantitative information on flood extents and water depths and by revealing factors that may have contributed to all three flood events.
Flood hazard assessment is at the core of flood risk management. In order to develop an efficient flood hazard assessment, it is of primary importance to have a well‐defined flood scenario encompassing all processes that could occur during an event. Understanding and assessing these processes requires meteorological, topographical and land‐use data as well as historical observations. Nowadays, flood delineation is based upon hydrological and hydraulic modelling, ground data collection, and remote sensing. Despite the advantages of these tools, they also present some specific limitations, either intrinsic to the approaches or linked with constraints of the local context. With the rapid advancement of web 2.0 technologies (e.g., Flickr and Wikimapia) and the increase of the use of participatory research, citizen science has the potential to provide valuable and complementary information at all levels of flood risk management and in particular for flood hazard assessment. After reviewing the capabilities and limitations of the current tools used in flood hazard assessment, this paper demonstrates the role that citizen science can play in providing key information on factors leading to flooding and on flood hazard parameters.
Flooding has emerged lately as a major threat for poor people in the suburban area of Dakar (Senegal), a densely populated area. In this region, flood events are mainly controlled by rainfall intensity and groundwater level fluctuations.To assess flood risk at a neighbourhood level, accurate data on flood extent, exposure and vulnerability is required. The objective of the present study is to obtain these data combining remote sensing data and local knowledge. Field work data were collected through interviews with inhabitants. About 500 respondents were surveyed with the support of a local association and very detailed mapping was carried out to clearly identify elements at risk. Information collected at the household level concerns: 1) socio-economic data, 2) information on the property, 3) flooded houses and 4) strategies of risk reduction.This research demonstrates that local knowledge is an important tool to obtain accurate data useful for understanding flood hazard and vulnerability patterns. It provides quantitative data at the household level that can be used to complement conventional GIS and remote sensing data.
Abstract. Fallout of ballistic blocks and bombs ejected from eruptive vents represents
a well-known hazard in areas
proximal to volcanoes (mostly <5 km from the vent). However, fallout of large clasts sedimenting from
plume margins that extend to medial
areas and have the potential to produce severe injuries to people and cause
damage to infrastructure, is often overlooked. Recent eruptive events at
Mount Etna (Italy) provide a clear example where large-clast fallout from
plume margins (>5 cm) has posed a real threat both to the many
visitors reaching the summit area and to local infrastructure, and,
therefore, has been selected as a case study. To quantify this hazard, a new
particle sedimentation model was calibrated with field data and then used for
probabilistic hazard assessments. For a fully probabilistic scenario the
hazard zone covered 72 km2 and included some 125 km of paths and
roads, as well as 15 buildings. Evacuation on foot to a safe area was
estimated at almost 4 h, but this could be reduced to less than 3 h if two
shelters were provided. Our results show the importance of integrating
probabilistic hazard analysis of large-clast fallout within effective
strategies of risk management and reduction, especially in the case of
volcanoes where visitors can reach the summit areas.
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