Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Mitigation: The Case of Vulcano Island, Italy

Galderisi, Adriana; Bonadonna, Costanza; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Ferrara, Floriana Federica; Menoni, Scira; Ceudech, Andrea; Biass, Sébastien; Frischknecht, Corine; Manzella, Irene; Minucci, Guido; Gregg, Chris E.

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-31313-4_8

Cited by 24 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…In order to determine the volume of potentially remobilized material, Volentik et al (2009) and Galderisi et al (2013) have already combined lahar-triggering modelling with probabilistic assessment of tephra deposition based on a static hydrological model (Iverson, 2000) and assuming total saturation of the deposit. In addition, Tierz et al (2017) have compiled a probabilistic lahar hazard assessment through the Bayesian belief network "Multihaz" based on a combination of probabilistic hazard assessment of both tephra fallout and PDCs with a dynamic physical model for lahar propagation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling

Baumann

Bonadonna

Cuomo

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The characterization of triggering dynamics and remobilized volumes is crucial to the assessment of associated lahar hazards. We propose an innovative treatment of the cascading effect between tephra fallout and lahar hazards based on probabilistic modelling that also accounts for a detailed description of source sediments. As an example, we have estimated the volumes of tephra fallout deposit that could be remobilized by rainfall-triggered lahars in association with two eruptive scenarios that have characterized the activity of the La Fossa cone (Vulcano, Italy) in the last 1000 years: a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle and a subplinian eruption. The spatial distribution and volume of deposits that could potentially trigger lahars were analysed based on a combination of tephra fallout probabilistic modelling (with TEPHRA2), slope-stability modelling (with TRIGRS), field observations, and geotechnical tests. Model input data were obtained from both geotechnical tests and field measurements (e.g. hydraulic conductivity, friction angle, cohesion, total unit weight of the soil, and saturated and residual water content). TRIGRS simulations show how shallow landsliding is an effective process for eroding pyroclastic deposits on Vulcano. Nonetheless, the remobilized volumes and the deposit thickness threshold for lahar initiation strongly depend on slope angle, rainfall intensity, grain size, friction angle, hydraulic conductivity, and the cohesion of the source deposit.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling

Baumann

Bonadonna

Cuomo

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…These Plans are at the cutting edge in the European context, since they have been carried out in three climate leader cities, very active both on mitigation and adaptation issues, and closely related to adaptation strategies established on a national level. Referring to recent studies for a detailed description of the features and contents of each plan [27], here we will focus on the potential of these plans for overcoming gaps and obstacles discussed in the previous paragraph, outlining their strengths and weaknesses in respect to the different phases of the adaptation process ( fig. 1).…”

Section: Adaption Plans: Strengths and Weaknessesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting cities for a changing climate: an integrated approach for sustainable urban development

Galderisi¹

2014

The Sustainable City IX

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Climate change is one of the main environmental issues challenging cities in the 21st century. The change in climate conditions is largely due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Cities are considered as the main factor responsible for GHG emissions, whose amount could still rise due to the expected increase of urban population. Thus, climate change and the growth of urban population appear closely linked in a negative loop and the ways in which their trends will develop and interact will be of great consequence to the wellbeing of human populations in the future. Up to now, European efforts have been largely focused on the mitigation of climate change. Only recently, the EU has stressed that -even though mitigation strategies still remain a priority -a larger focus has to be devoted to adaptation measures, in order to face the unavoidable impacts and related economic, environmental and social costs of climate change.Grounding on these premises and according to the Rio+20 Declaration "The Future we want", this contribution explores the role of adaptation planning for driving European cities towards the achievement of sustainability goals, emphasizing the need for a better integration of disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation policies in urban planning. Current Adaptation plans, in fact, are likely to become a further sectoral tool, scarcely related to policies and tools for both disaster risk mitigation and land-use planning.

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“…We assume that a moderate disruption of the road network may happen with ∼ 10 kg m −2 tephra accumulation, while 100 kg m −2 would cause the total blockage of road transportation (Biass et al, 2012). Finally, we consider that an accumulation of 1 cm (∼ 10 kg m −2 ) can cause damages to agriculture and impact livestock (Wilson et al, 2009a;Biass et al, 2012), as has occurred during past eruptions in Iceland (Thorarinsson and Sigvaldason, 1971;Gudmundsson et al, 1992;Höskuldsson et al, 2007).…”

Section: Impact Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The concept of systemic vulnerability has been applied in several areas of natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc. (e.g., Minciardi et al, 2005;Pascale et al, 2010), but in volcanology this concept has been introduced only recently (e.g., Galderisi et al, 2013). Systemic vulnerability has a particular relevance in the case of tephra fallout, which may produce much higher secondary than primary impacts; that is, the physical failure of an element may also impact other connected activities and infrastructures (Biass et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 2: Vulnerability and impact

Scaini¹,

Biass²,

Galderisi³

et al. 2014

Preprint

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Abstract. We perform a multi-scale impact assessment of tephra fallout and dispersal from explosive volcanic activity in Iceland. A companion paper (Biass et al., 2014) introduces a multi-scale probabilistic assessment of tephra hazard from 4 Icelandic volcanoes (Hekla, Askja, Eyjafjallajökull and Katla) and presents probabilistic hazard maps for tephra accumulation in Iceland and tephra dispersal across Europe. Here, we present the subsequent vulnerability and impact assessment, that accounts the relevance of single features at national and European levels and considers several vulnerability indicators for tephra dispersal and deposition. At national scale, we focus on physical, systemic and economic vulnerability of Iceland to tephra fallout, whereas at European scale we focus on the systemic vulnerability of the air traffic system to tephra dispersal. Results include vulnerability maps for Iceland and European airspace and allow identifying the expected impacts of the different eruptive scenarios considered. Results at national scale show that tephra accumulation from the considered eruptive scenarios can disrupt main electricity network, in particular in case of eruption at Askja volcano. Results also show that if eruptive scenarios occurred at Hekla, Askja and Katla volcanoes, many power plants would be affected, causing a substantial systemic impact due to their importance for the Icelandic economy. Moreover, the considered scenarios at Askja and Katla could produce substantial impact on agricultural activities (crops and pastures). At European scale, tephra dispersal from explosive volcanic activity at Askja and Katla volcanoes is likely to produce substantial impacts at European level and, in particular, at Keflavik and London Flight Information Regions (FIRs), but also at FIRs above France, Germany and Scandinavia, in particular for long-lasting activity at Katla volcano. Explosive activity at Hekla volcano is likely to produce high impacts at Keflavik FIR and London FIRS, but in case of higher magnitude scenario, can impact also France FIRs. Results could support land use and emergency planning at national level and risk management strategies of the European air traffic system. Although we focus on Iceland, the proposed methodology could be applied to other active volcanic areas, enhancing the long-term tephra risk management.

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Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Mitigation: The Case of Vulcano Island, Italy

Cited by 24 publications

References 4 publications

Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling

Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling

Adapting cities for a changing climate: an integrated approach for sustainable urban development

A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 2: Vulnerability and impact

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