A large collaborative program has studied the coupled air‐ice‐ocean‐wave processes occurring in the Arctic during the autumn ice advance. The program included a field campaign in the western Arctic during the autumn of 2015, with in situ data collection and both aerial and satellite remote sensing. Many of the analyses have focused on using and improving forecast models. Summarizing and synthesizing the results from a series of separate papers, the overall view is of an Arctic shifting to a more seasonal system. The dramatic increase in open water extent and duration in the autumn means that large surface waves and significant surface heat fluxes are now common. When refreezing finally does occur, it is a highly variable process in space and time. Wind and wave events drive episodic advances and retreats of the ice edge, with associated variations in sea ice formation types (e.g., pancakes, nilas). This variability becomes imprinted on the winter ice cover, which in turn affects the melt season the following year.

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The MarsWRF model is set up with fully interactive dust at 5° × 5° and 2° × 2 resolution. The latter allows for a better representation of topography and other surface properties. An infinite reservoir of surface dust is assumed for both resolutions. For 5° × 5°, surface dust lifting by wind stress takes place over broad areas, occurring in about 20% of the model's grid cells. For 2° × 2°, it is more spatially restricted, occurring in less than 5% of the grid cells, and somewhat reminiscent of the corridors Acidalia‐Chryse, Utopia‐Isidis, and Arcadia‐West of Tharsis. The onset times of major dust storms—large regional storms or global dust storm events (GDEs)—do not exhibit much interannual variability, typically occurring at around Ls 260°. However, their magnitude does show significant interannual variability—with only small regional storms in some years, large regional storms in others, and some years with GDEs—owing to the interaction between major dust lifting regions at low latitudes. The latter is consistent with observed GDEs having several active dust lifting centers. The agreement between the model's surface dust distribution and observation‐based dust cover index maps is potentially better for 2° × 2°. For the latter, there is also significant surface dust lifting by wind stress in the aphelion season that is largely confined to the Hellas basin. It has a recurring time pattern of 2–7 sols, possibly resulting from the interaction between midlatitude baroclinic systems and local downslope flows.

Abstract. An analysis of the tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) columns (TOCs) derived from SCIAMACHY limb-nadirmatching (LNM) observations during the period 2003-2011, focusing on global variations in TOC, is described. The changes are derived using a multivariate linear regression model. TOC shows changes of −0.2±0.4, 0.3±0.4, 0.1±0.5 and 0.1 ± 0.2 % yr −1 , which are not statistically significant at the 2σ level in the latitude bands 30-50 • N, 20 • S-0, 0-20 • N and 50-30 • S, respectively. Tropospheric O 3 shows statistically significant increases over some regions of South Asia (1-3 % yr −1 ), the South American continent (up to 2 % yr −1 ), Alaska (up to 2 % yr −1 ) and around Congo in Africa (up to 2 % yr −1 ). Significant increase in TOC is determined off the continents including Australia (up to 2 % yr −1 ), Eurasia (1-3 % yr −1 ) and South America (up to 3 % yr −1 ). Significant decrease in TOC (up to −3 % yr −1 ) is observed over some regions of the continents of North America, Europe and South America. Over the oceanic regions including the Pacific, North Atlantic and Indian oceans, significant decreases in TOC (−1 to −3 % yr −1 ) were observed. In addition, the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to changes in TOC for the period 2003-2011 was investigated. The result shows extensive regions, mostly in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere extratropics, of significant ENSO responses to changes in TOC and a significant QBO response to TOC changes over some regions.

Abstract. Chemistry-climate models predict an acceleration of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as a consequence of increasing global surface temperatures, resulting from elevated levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The observed decrease of ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere during the last decades of the 20th century is consistent with the anticipated acceleration of upwelling. However, more recent satellite observations of ozone reveal that this decrease has unexpectedly stopped in the first decade of the 21st century, challenging the implicit assumption of a continuous acceleration of tropical upwelling. In this study we use three decades of chemistry-transport-model simulations to investigate this phenomenon and resolve this apparent contradiction. Aside from a high-bias between 1985-1990, our model is able to reproduce the observed tropical lower stratosphere ozone record. A regression analysis identifies a significant decrease in the early period followed by a statistically robust trend-change after 2002, in qualitative agreement with the observations. We demonstrate that this trend-change is correlated with structural changes in the vertical transport, represented in the model by diabatic heating rates taken from the reanalysis product Era-Interim. These changes lead to a hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling between 70-30 hPa and a southward shift of the tropical pipe at 30 and 100 hPa during the past decade, which appear to be the primary causes for the observed trendchange in ozone.