The Arctic stratospheric winter of 2010/2011 was one of the coldest on record with a large loss of stratospheric ozone. Observations of temperature, ozone, nitric acid, water vapor, nitrous oxide, chlorine nitrate and chlorine monoxide from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) onboard ENVISAT are compared to calculations with a chemical transport model (CTM). There is overall excellent agreement between the model calculations and MIPAS observations, indicating that the processes of denitrification, chlorine activation and catalytic ozone depletion are sufficiently well represented. Polar vortex integrated ozone loss reaches 120 Dobson Units (DU) by early April 2011. Sensitivity calculations with the CTM give an additional ozone loss of about 25 DU at the end of the winter for a further cooling of the stratosphere by 1 K, showing locally near‐complete ozone depletion (remaining ozone <200 ppbv) over a large vertical extent from 16 to 19 km altitude. In the CTM a 1 K cooling approximately counteracts a 10% reduction in stratospheric halogen loading, a halogen reduction that is expected to occur in about 13 years from now. These results indicate that severe ozone depletion like in 2010/2011 or even worse could appear for cold Arctic winters over the next decades if the observed tendency for cold Arctic winters to become colder continues into the future.

Abstract. The transport of very short-lived substances into the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is investigated by a three-dimensional chemical transport model using archived convective updraft mass fluxes (or detrainment rates) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's ERA-Interim reanalysis. Large-scale vertical velocities are calculated from diabatic heating rates. With this approach we explicitly model the large scale subsidence in the tropical troposphere with convection taking place in fast and isolated updraft events. The model calculations agree generally well with observations of bromoform and methyl iodide from aircraft campaigns and with ozone and water vapor from sonde and satellite observations. Using a simplified treatment of dehydration and bromine product gas washout we give a range of 1.6 to 3 ppt for the contribution of bromoform to stratospheric bromine, assuming a uniform mixing ratio in the boundary layer of 1 ppt. We show that the most effective region for VSLS transport into the stratosphere is the West Pacific, accounting for about 55% of the bromine from bromoform transported into the stratosphere under the supposition of a uniformly distributed source.

Abstract. The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated (nine chemical transport models and two chemistry–climate models) by simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993–2012). Except for three model simulations, all others were driven offline by (or nudged to) reanalysed meteorology. The overarching goal of TransCom-VSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences due to emissions and transport processes. Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA's long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements – including high-altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform. The models generally capture the observed seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model–measurement correlation (r  ≥  0.7) at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model–measurement agreement at the surface is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions. Large inter-model differences are apparent when using the same emission inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11) achieve best agreement to surface CHBr3 observations using the lowest of the three CHBr3 emission inventories tested (similarly, 8 out of 11 models for CH2Br2). In general, the models reproduce observations of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 obtained in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) at various locations throughout the Pacific well. Zonal variability in VSLS loading in the TTL is generally consistent among models, with CHBr3 (and to a lesser extent CH2Br2) most elevated over the tropical western Pacific during boreal winter. The models also indicate the Asian monsoon during boreal summer to be an important pathway for VSLS reaching the stratosphere, though the strength of this signal varies considerably among models. We derive an ensemble climatological mean estimate of the stratospheric bromine SGI from CHBr3 and CH2Br2 of 2.0 (1.2–2.5) ppt,  ∼  57 % larger than the best estimate from the most recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment Report. We find no evidence for a long-term, transport-driven trend in the stratospheric SGI of bromine over the simulation period. The transport-driven interannual variability in the annual mean bromine SGI is of the order of ±5 %, with SGI exhibiting a strong positive correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific. Overall, our results do not show systematic differences between models specific to the choice of reanalysis meteorology, rather clear differences are seen related to differences in the implementation of transport processes in the models.

Abstract. Very short-lived substances (VSLS) still represent a major factor of uncertainty in the quantification of stratospheric bromine loading. One of the major obstacles for short-lived source gases in contributing to the stratosphere is generally thought to be loss of inorganic bromine (Bry) in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) due to dehydration. We use sensitivity calculations with a three-dimensional chemistry transport model comprising a consistent parametrization of convective transport and a comprehensive chemistry scheme to investigate the associated processes. The model considers the two most important bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2). The organic bromine source gases as well as the resulting profile of inorganic bromine in the model are consistent with available observations. In contrast to its organic precursors, Bry is assumed to have a significant sorption capacity regarding sedimenting liquid or frozen particles thus the fraction of intact source gases during their ascent through the TTL is a critical factor. We find that source gas injection is the dominant pathway into the stratosphere, about 50% of CHBr3 and 94% of CH2Br2 is able to overcome the cold point tropopause at approximately 17 km altitude, modulated by the interannual variability of the vertical transport efficiency. In fact, our sensitivity calculations indicate that the extent of source gas injection of CHBr3 is highly sensitive to the strength of convection and large-scale ascent; in contrast, modifying the photolysis or the destruction via OH yields a significantly smaller response. In principle, the same applies as well to CH2Br2, though it is considerably less responsive due to its longer lifetime. The next important aspect we identified is that the partitioning of available Bry from short-lived sources is clearly shifted away from HBr, according to our current state of knowledge the only member of the Bry family which is efficiently adsorbed on ice particles. This effect is caused by very efficient heterogeneous reactions on ice surfaces which reduce the HBr/Bry fraction below 15% at the tropical tropopause. Under these circumstances there is no significant loss of Bry due to dehydration in the model, VSLS contribute fully to stratospheric bromine. In addition, we conduct several sensitivity calculations to test the robustness of this result. If heterogeneous chemistry is ignored, the HBr/Bry fraction exceeds 50% and about 10% of bromine from VSLS is scavenged. Dehydration plays a minor role for Bry removal under the assumption that HOBr is efficiently adsorbed on ice as well since the heterogeneous reactions alter the partitioning equilibrium of Bry in favor of HOBr. In this case, up to 12% of bromine from VSLS is removed. Even in the extreme and unrealistic case that adsorbed species on ice particles are instantaneously removed the maximum loss of bromine does not exceed 25%. Assuming 6 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) of bromine short-lived source gases in convective updrafts, a value that is supported by observational data, we find a most likely contribution of VSLS to stratospheric bromine in the range of 4.5–6 pptv.

Abstract. Stratospheric bromine loading due to very shortlived substances is investigated with a three-dimensional chemical transport model over a period of 21 years using meteorological input data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1989 to the end of 2009. Within this framework we analyze the impact of dehydration and deep convection on the amount of stratospheric bromine using an idealized and a detailed full chemistry approach. We model the two most important brominated short-lived substances, bromoform (CHBr 3 ) and dibromomethane (CH 2 Br 2 ), assuming a uniform convective detrainment mixing ratio of 1 part per trillion by volume (pptv) for both species. The contribution of very short-lived substances to stratospheric bromine varies drastically with the applied dehydration mechanism and the associated scavenging of soluble species ranging from 3.4 pptv in the idealized setup up to 5 pptv using the full chemistry scheme. In the latter case virtually the entire amount of bromine originating from very short-lived source gases is able to reach the stratosphere thus rendering the impact of dehydration and scavenging on inorganic bromine in the tropopause insignificant. Furthermore, our long-term calculations show that the mixing ratios of very short-lived substances are strongly correlated to convective activity, i.e. intensified convection leads to higher amounts of very shortlived substances in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere especially under extreme conditions like El Niño seasons. However, this does not apply to the inorganic brominated product gases whose concentrations are anti-correlated to convective activity mainly due to convective dilution and possible scavenging, depending on the applied approach.