Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ13CCH4) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.

Article:Hossaini, R, Chipperfield, MP, Montzka, SA et al. (3 more authors) (2015) Efficiency of short-lived halogens at influencing climate through depletion of stratospheric ozone. Nature Geoscience, 8. pp. 186-190. ISSN 1752-0894 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2363 eprints@whiterose.ac.uk https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ Reuse Unless indicated otherwise, fulltext items are protected by copyright with all rights reserved. The copyright exception in section 29 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 allows the making of a single copy solely for the purpose of non-commercial research or private study within the limits of fair dealing. The publisher or other rights-holder may allow further reproduction and re-use of this version -refer to the White Rose Research Online record for this item. Where records identify the publisher as the copyright holder, users can verify any specific terms of use on the publisher's website. TakedownIf you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by emailing eprints@whiterose.ac.uk including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request.

Abstract.We have developed a detailed chemical scheme for the degradation of the short-lived source gases bromoform (CHBr 3 ) and dibromomethane (CH 2 Br 2 ) and implemented it in the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model (CTM). The CTM has been used to predict the distribution of the two source gases (SGs) and 11 of their organic product gases (PGs). These first global calculations of the organic PGs show that their abundance is small. The longest lived organic PGs are CBr 2 O and CHBrO, but their peak tropospheric abundance relative to the surface volume mixing ratio (vmr) of the SGs is less than 5%. We calculate their mean local tropospheric lifetimes in the tropics to be ∼7 and ∼2 days (due to photolysis), respectively. Therefore, the assumption in previous modelling studies that SG degradation leads immediately to inorganic bromine seems reasonable.We have compared observed tropical SG profiles from a number of aircraft campaigns with various model experiments. In the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) we find that the CTM run using p levels (TOMCAT) and vertical winds from analysed divergence overestimates the abundance of CH 2 Br 2 , and to a lesser extent CHBr 3 , although the data is sparse and comparisons are not conclusive. Better agreement in the TTL is obtained in the sensitivity run using θ levels (SLIMCAT) and vertical motion from diabatic heating rates. Trajectory estimates of residence times in the two model versions show slower vertical transport in the SLIM-CAT θ-level version. In the p-level model even when we switch off convection we still find significant amounts of the SGs considered may reach the cold point tropopause; the Correspondence to: R. Hossaini (chm3rh@leeds.ac.uk) stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) is only reduced by ∼16% for CHBr 3 and ∼2% for CH 2 Br 2 without convection.Overall, the relative importance of the SG pathway and the PG pathway for transport of bromine to the stratospheric overworld (θ >380 K) has been assessed. Assuming a 10-day washout lifetime of Br y in TOMCAT, we find the delivery of total Br from CHBr 3 to be 0.72 pptv with ∼53% of this coming from SGI. Similary, for CH 2 Br 2 we find a total Br value of 1.69 pptv with ∼94% coming from SGI. We infer that these species contribute ∼2.4 pptv of inorganic bromine to the lower stratosphere with SGI being the dominant pathway. Slower transport to and through the TTL would decrease this estimate.

As a result of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the atmospheric loading of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances is decreasing. Accordingly, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover. However, short data records and atmospheric variability confound the search for early signs of recovery, and climate change is masking ozone recovery from ozone-depleting substances in some regions and will increasingly affect the extent of recovery. Here we discuss the nature and timescales of ozone recovery, and explore the extent to which it can be currently detected in different atmospheric regions.

It is well established that anthropogenic chlorine-containing chemicals contribute to ozone layer depletion. The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has led to reductions in the atmospheric concentration of many ozone-depleting gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons. As a consequence, stratospheric chlorine levels are declining and ozone is projected to return to levels observed pre-1980 later this century. However, recent observations show the atmospheric concentration of dichloromethane—an ozone-depleting gas not controlled by the Montreal Protocol—is increasing rapidly. Using atmospheric model simulations, we show that although currently modest, the impact of dichloromethane on ozone has increased markedly in recent years and if these increases continue into the future, the return of Antarctic ozone to pre-1980 levels could be substantially delayed. Sustained growth in dichloromethane would therefore offset some of the gains achieved by the Montreal Protocol, further delaying recovery of Earth’s ozone layer.

Chlorine atoms (Cl) are highly reactive toward hydrocarbons in the Earth's troposphere, including the greenhouse gas methane (CH4). However, the regional and global CH4 sink from Cl is poorly quantified as tropospheric Cl concentrations ([Cl]) are uncertain by ~2 orders of magnitude. Here we describe the addition of a detailed tropospheric chlorine scheme to the TOMCAT chemical transport model. The model includes several sources of tropospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly), including (i) the oxidation of chlorocarbons of natural (CH3Cl, CHBr2Cl, CH2BrCl, and CHBrCl2) and anthropogenic (CH2Cl2, CHCl3, C2Cl4, C2HCl3, and CH2ClCH2Cl) origin and (ii) sea‐salt aerosol dechlorination. Simulations were performed to quantify tropospheric [Cl], with a focus on the marine boundary layer, and quantify the global significance of Cl atom CH4 oxidation. In agreement with observations, simulated surface levels of hydrogen chloride (HCl), the most abundant Cly reservoir, reach several parts per billion (ppb) over polluted coastal/continental regions, with sub‐ppb levels typical in more remote regions. Modeled annual mean surface [Cl] exhibits large spatial variability with the largest levels, typically in the range of 1–5 × 104 atoms cm−3, in the polluted northern hemisphere. Chlorocarbon oxidation provides a tropospheric Cly source of up to ~4320 Gg Cl/yr, sustaining a background surface [Cl] of <0.1 to 0.5 × 103 atoms cm−3 over large areas. Globally, we estimate a tropospheric methane sink of ~12–13 Tg CH4/yr due the CH4 + Cl reaction (~2.5% of total CH4 oxidation). Larger regional effects are predicted, with Cl accounting for ~10 to >20% of total boundary layer CH4 oxidation in some locations.

The abundance of chlorine in the Earth's atmosphere increased considerably during the 1970s to 1990s, following large emissions of anthropogenic long-lived chlorine-containing source gases, notably the chlorofluorocarbons. The chemical inertness of chlorofluorocarbons allows their transport and mixing throughout the troposphere on a global scale1, before they reach the stratosphere where they release chlorine atoms that cause ozone depletion2. The large ozone loss over Antarctica3 was the key observation that stimulated the definition and signing in 1987 of the Montreal Protocol, an international treaty establishing a schedule to reduce the production of the major chlorine-and bromine-containing halocarbons. Owing to its implementation, the near-surface total chlorine concentration showed a maximum in 1993, followed by a decrease of half a per cent to one per cent per year4, in line with expectations. Remote-sensing data have revealed a peak in stratospheric chlorine after 19965, then a decrease of close to one per cent per year6, 7, in agreement with the surface observations of the chlorine source gases and model calculations7. Here we present ground-based and satellite data that show a recent and significant increase, at the 2σ level, in hydrogen chloride (HCl), the main stratospheric chlorine reservoir, starting around 2007 in the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, in contrast with the ongoing monotonic decrease of near-surface source gases. Using model simulations, we attribute this trend anomaly to a slowdown in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, occurring over several consecutive years, transporting more aged air to the lower stratosphere, and characterized by a larger relative conversion of source gases to HCl. This short-term dynamical variability will also affect other stratospheric tracers and needs to be accounted for when studying the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer. Disciplines Medicine and Health Sciences | Social and Behavioral Sciences Publication DetailsMahieu, E., Chipperfield, M. P., Notholt, J., Reddmann, T., Anderson, J., Bernath, P. F., Blumenstock, T., Coffey, M. T., Dhomse, S. S., Feng, W., Franco, B., Froidevaux, L., Griffith, D. W. T., Hannigan, J. W., Hase, F., Hossaini, R., Jones, N. B., Morino, I., Murata, I., Nakajima, H., Palm, M., Paton-Walsh, C., Russell III, J. M., Schneider, M., Servais, C., Smale, D. & Walker, K. A. (2014). Recent Northern Hemisphere stratospheric HCl increase due to atmospheric circulation changes. Nature, 515 (7525), 104-107. The large ozone loss over Antarctica 3 was the key observation which stimulated the definition and signing of the Montreal Protocol in 1987, an international treaty establishing a schedule to reduce the production of the major chlorine-and brominecontaining halocarbons. Owing to its implementation, the near-surface total chlorine concentration showed a maximum in 1993, followed by a decrease of 0.5-1 %/yr 4 , in line with expectations. Remote-sensing data have revealed a peak in stratospheric...

We use height-resolved and total column satellite observations and 3-D chemical transport model simulations to study stratospheric ozone variations during 1998-2017 as ozone-depleting substances decline. In 2017 extrapolar lower stratospheric ozone displayed a strong positive anomaly following much lower values in 2016. This points to large interannual variability rather than an ongoing downward trend, as reported recently by Ball et al. (2018Ball et al. ( , https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1379Ball et al. ( -2018. The observed ozone variations are well captured by the chemical transport model throughout the stratosphere and are largely driven by meteorology. Model sensitivity experiments show that the contribution of past trends in short-lived chlorine species to the ozone changes is small. Similarly, the potential impact of modest trends in natural brominated short-lived species is small. These results confirm the important role that atmospheric dynamics plays in controlling ozone in the extrapolar lower stratosphere on multiannual time scales and the continued importance of monitoring ozone profiles as the stratosphere changes.Plain Language Summary Emission of long-lived chlorine and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances has led to the depletion of the ozone layer, most notably the Antarctic ozone hole. Policy action through the Montreal Protocol has phased out the production of the major long-lived ozone-depleting substances. Consequently, stratospheric chlorine and bromine amounts are declining, and we expect the ozone layer to slowly recover. However, although the tropical lower stratosphere is not a region where large ozone loss has so-far been observed, a recent study by Ball et al. (2018) suggested that ozone there is decreasing, in disagreement with models and expectations of ozone recovery. We use updated observations and an atmospheric model to investigate these issues. First, we use an additional year of observations which show that ozone values in the lower stratosphere increased in 2017, which is a consequence of variations in atmospheric dynamics. Second, our 3-D model performs well in reproducing the observed ozone variations. Although the model is not perfect, the comparisons suggest that we do have a good understanding of the lower stratospheric ozone. Third, we quantify the role of short-lived chlorine and bromine compounds, which are not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, on the recent ozone changes. The effect is small.