Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer

Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Bekki, Slimane; Dhomse, Sandip; Harris, Neil; Haßler, Birgit; Hossaini, Ryan; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Thiéblemont, Rémi; Weber, Mark

doi:10.1038/nature23681

Cited by 200 publications

(193 citation statements)

References 102 publications

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“…Globally, the post-ODS peak trends vary generally between near-zero trends (NH extratropics) and positive trends of +0.7 % decade −1 (SH extratropics) with a statistical trend uncertainty of about 0.7 % decade −1 (2σ ) after 20 years of observations. We may therefore conclude that we are about to emerge into the phase of ozone recovery as is also shown by chemistry-climate and chemistry-transport models (e.g., Eyring et al, 2010;Shepherd et al, 2014;Solomon et al, 2016;Chipperfield et al, 2017). Both the regression applied to datasets (e.g., in our study) and models capture the dynamical variability well and their results are consistent.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 68%

“…The Antarctic September trend is barely significant at the 2σ level and confirms the findings of Solomon et al (2016). Changes in the regression model, use of different proxies, and considerations of inherent drift uncertainties can easily remove the significance (de Laat et al, 2015;Chipperfield et al, 2017). In contrast, the October trends are much smaller (about 3 % decade −1 ) and statistically insignificant, which is also in agreement with Solomon et al (2016).…”

Section: Trends In Polar Springsupporting

confidence: 77%

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Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

et al. 2018

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 68%

Section: Trends In Polar Springsupporting

confidence: 77%

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

et al. 2018

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“…Newchurch et al 2003;Angell and Free 2009;Eyring et al 2010;Krzyścin 2010;Zhang et al 2014;Chipperfield et al 2017). However, some studies have shown that stratospheric ozone concentrations over different regions along the same latitude exhibit different recovery rates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2) is employed. Although the ozone decline due to chemical processes has ceased and is likely beginning to reverse (Chipperfield et al 2017), here we just analyze the contribution of chemical processes to the ZAO trend over the period 1979-2015 and do not attempt to separate the 'ozone recovery' period from the 'ozone depletion' period. Figure 11a shows the linear trends of zonal anomalies of chemical TCO (see Sect.…”

Section: The Impact Of the Surface Temperature On Zao Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

et al. 2018

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Using various satellite-based observations, a linear ozone transport model (LOTM), a chemistry-climate model (WACCM3) and an offline chemical transport model (SLIMCAT), zonally asymmetric trends of the total column ozone (TCO) in the northern middle latitudes during winter for the period 1979-2015 are analyzed and factors responsible for the trends are diagnosed. The results reveal that there are significant negative TCO trends over the North Pacific and positive TCO trends over the northwestern North America. The zonally asymmetric TCO trends are mainly contributed by the trends in partial column ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) which are closely related to the long-term changes of geopotential height in the troposphere. Furthermore, the trends of geopontential height in the UTLS are mainly modulated by pattern changes in the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Cold Ocean-Warm Land (COWL) and the North Pacific (NP) index. Accordingly, the zonally asymmetric TCO trends can be largely reconstructed by the trends of the above three teleconnection patterns. Sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean can also exert a significant contribution to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends through their influence on the COWL and NP patterns. In addition, chemical ozone loss partially offsets the positive trends in zonal TCO anomalies over Central Siberia and enhances the positive TCO trends over northwestern North America. However, the contribution of chemical processes to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends is relatively smaller than that of dynamical transport effects. Interpreting the zonally asymmetric TCO trends and their responsible factors would be helpful for accurately predicting the stratospheric ozone return date in the northern middle latitudes.

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“…We then subtract the contribution of the step basis function from the model data, obtaining the corrected CTM data where the discontinuities have been removed. For more details about the SLIMCAT model see Chipperfield (2006) and Chipperfield et al (2015Chipperfield et al ( , 2017. Using CTM output as an evaluation and adjustment tool for coarsely distributed global ozone measurements is not a novel idea.…”

Section: Chemistry-transport Model (Ctm) Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

An updated version of a gap-free monthly mean zonal mean ozone database

Haßler

Kremser

Bodeker

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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Abstract. An updated and improved version of a global, vertically resolved, monthly mean zonal mean ozone database has been calculated -hereafter referred to as the BSVertOzone (Bodeker Scientific Vertical Ozone) database. Like its predecessor, it combines measurements from several satellite-based instruments and ozone profile measurements from the global ozonesonde network. Monthly mean zonal mean ozone concentrations in mixing ratio and number density are provided in 5 • latitude bins, spanning 70 altitude levels (1 to 70 km), or 70 pressure levels that are approximately 1 km apart (878.4 to 0.046 hPa). Different data sets or "tiers" are provided: Tier 0 is based only on the available measurements and therefore does not completely cover the whole globe or the full vertical range uniformly; the Tier 0.5 monthly mean zonal means are calculated as a filled version of the Tier 0 database where missing monthly mean zonal mean values are estimated from correlations against a total column ozone (TCO) database. The Tier 0.5 data set includes the full range of measurement variability and is created as an intermediate step for the calculation of the Tier 1 data where a least squares regression model is used to attribute variability to various known forcing factors for ozone. Regression model fit coefficients are expanded in Fourier series and Legendre polynomials (to account for seasonality and latitudinal structure, respectively). Four different combinations of contributions from selected regression model basis functions result in four different Tier 1 data sets that can be used for comparisons with chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations that do not exhibit the same unforced variability as reality (unless they are nudged towards reanalyses). Compared to previous versions of the database, this update includes additional satellite data sources and ozonesonde measurements to extend the database period to 2016. Additional improvements over the previous version of the database include the following: (i) adjustments of measurements to account for biases and drifts between different data sources (using a chemistry-transport model, CTM, simulation as a transfer standard), (ii) a more objective way to determine the optimum number of Fourier and Legendre expansions for the basis function fit coefficients, and (iii) the derivation of methodological and measurement uncertainties on each database value are traced through all data modification steps. Comparisons with the ozone database from SWOOSH (Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized data set) show good agreement in many regions of the globe. Minor differences are caused by different bias adjustment procedures for the two databases. However, compared to SWOOSH, BSVertOzone additionally covers the troposphere. Version 1.0 of BSVertOzone is publicly available at https://doi.org/http://doi.org/10

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Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer

Cited by 200 publications

References 102 publications

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

An updated version of a gap-free monthly mean zonal mean ozone database

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