In recent years, the share of young people not in education, employment, or training (NEETs) has shown a remarkable increase in many European countries, such as Italy. The wide diffusion of NEETs represents an alarming social issue, as being NEET predisposes young people to long-term unemployment and social exclusion. It also has a significant negative impact on the economic growth and welfare equilibrium of countries. The aim of this paper is to analyze the determinants of the NEET condition in Italy through a step by step procedure beginning with the identification of their main characteristics and then proceeding with a focus on specific homogeneous clusters of NEETs. The decomposition of the gaps in the probabilities of being NEET between the various clusters allows verifying how personal characteristics effectively act. Furthermore, the influence of unobserved factors in the professional condition of young people has been analysed in more detail through a bivariate selection probit model on the propensity to look for a job against the condition of being inactive. The results confirm the crucial role of the education system, as well as the importance of the economic and social disparities between gender and the Italian territorial districts.
PurposeThere is a long period from completing studies to finding a permanent or temporary (but at least satisfactory) job in all European countries, especially in Mediterranean countries, including Italy. This paper aims to study the determinants of this duration and measure them, for the first time in a systematic way, in the case of Italy.Design/methodology/approachThis paper provides several measures of duration, including education level and other criteria. Furthermore, it attempts to identify the main determinants of the long Italian transition, both at a macroeconomic and an individual level. It tests for omitted heterogeneity of those who are stuck at this important crossroads in their life within the context of parametric survival models.FindingsThe average duration of the school-to-work transition for young people aged 18–34 years was 2.88 years (or 34.56 months) in 2017. A shorter duration was found for the highly educated; they found a job on average 46 months earlier than those with compulsory education. At a macroeconomic level, the duration over the years 2004–2017 was inversely related to spending in the labour market policy and in education, gross domestic product growth and the degree of trade union density; however, it was directly related to the proportion of temporary contracts. At the individual level, being a woman, a migrant or living in a densely populated area in the South are the risk factors for remaining stuck in the transition. After correcting for omitted heterogeneity, there is clear evidence of positive duration dependence.Practical implicationsPositive duration dependence suggests that focusing on education and labour policy, rather than labour flexibility, is the best way to smooth the transition.Originality/valueThis study develops our understanding of the Italian school-to-work transition regime by providing new and detailed evidence of its duration and by studying its determinants.
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